TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13155067
Played Sep 19Finished
Mykhailo Senyk
Home
3.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
51114129111012––
Oleksandr Bolnyh
Away
1.36
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:20 and never touched — 71.6% is still 71.6%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Bolnyh to win
71.6%
71.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMykhailo Senyk above · Oleksandr Bolnyh below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 84 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Oleksandr Bolnyh at 71.6%
84 points played in total.
H2H Mykhailo Senyk 17–15 Oleksandr Bolnyh Oleksandr Bolnyh has won 15 of their 32 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:20What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Bolnyh
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-15 in 32
Senyk
Wrong
gap of 2 in 32, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Senyk 605 vs Bolnyh 768
Bolnyh
Correct
both rated, 163 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Senyk 60% vs Bolnyh 40%
Senyk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Senyk 40% vs Bolnyh 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Senyk -1 · Bolnyh -3
Bolnyh
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Bolnyh)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bolnyh form (40%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSenyk 3.00 / Bolnyh 1.36
Signal prob.28% / 72%
Edge (Bolnyh)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13155067
Senyk3.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog16% won 17 of 107
Down 0–1, comes back4% 3 of 78
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 53
Bolnyh1.36
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite69% won 42 of 61
Up 2–0, closes it92% 23 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it81% 34 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSenyk2wins
AwayBolnyh8wins
2 of 10 to a deciderBolnyh leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSenyk66.7%2 of 3
AwayBolnyh100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Senyk3Bolnyh7n = 10Bolnyh took 7 of 10
S2Senyk4Bolnyh6n = 10Bolnyh took 6 of 10
S3Senyk6Bolnyh4n = 10Senyk took 6 of 10
S4Senyk1Bolnyh6n = 7Bolnyh took 6 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSenykBolnyhS − BBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match34.338.4−4.1per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSenykBolnyhBasisWin rate · lifetime147 / 355 vs 86 / 19441.4%44.3%147 / 355 vs 86 / 194Avg sets wonper match1.71.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.036.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BolnyhSenyk 3.00/Bolnyh 1.36
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
71.6%
Bolnyh · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Bolnyh won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 18 · 14:55M. Senyk2789100O. Bolnyh341111123
LSep 5 · 06:25M. Senyk33771181O. Bolnyh3911116113
LAug 13 · 11:25M. Senyk351161081O. Bolnyh3841112113
LAug 12 · 12:55M. Senyk34714581O. Bolnyh45111211113
WAug 7 · 05:55M. Senyk331111113O. Bolnyh215790
WAug 6 · 05:25M. Senyk4211812113O. Bolnyh399111091
LAug 5 · 13:25M. Senyk3621111662O. Bolnyh49119711113
LJul 18 · 06:25M. Senyk46711117102O. Bolnyh44118211123
LJul 17 · 13:55M. Senyk2410770O. Bolnyh341211113
LJul 10 · 07:25M. Senyk33871171O. Bolnyh4111118113
M. Senyk10
WSep 19 · 08:55P. Chyzh1.118690M. Senyk6.001111113LSep 19 · 06:55B. Pyrtyk1.171111153M. Senyk4.5046130WSep 19 · 05:25M. Senyk1.67781111113V. Sydorchuk2.1011114872WSep 18 · 17:55M. Senyk1.441111113V. Moroz2.633880WSep 18 · 16:25M. Senyk1.531211113M. Kornijchuk2.3810620LSep 18 · 14:55M. Senyk3.0089100O. Bolnyh1.361111123LSep 18 · 13:25M. Senyk6.5011716472P. Chyzh1.109111411113LSep 18 · 11:55M. Senyk1.73111141182V. Sydorchuk2.00136118113LSep 13 · 10:55M. Senyk1.284690V. Moroz3.501111113LSep 13 · 08:55P. Chyzh1.201311113M. Senyk4.3311690
O. Bolnyh10
LSep 19 · 05:55P. Chyzh1.28115116123O. Bolnyh3.50711411102LSep 19 · 04:55B. Pyrtyk1.331081111113O. Bolnyh3.2512118632LSep 18 · 18:55O. Bolnyh2.7566100P. Chyzh1.401111123WSep 18 · 16:55V. Moroz4.00115471O. Bolnyh1.2261111113WSep 18 · 14:55M. Senyk3.0089100O. Bolnyh1.361111123WSep 18 · 13:55O. Bolnyh1.73128412113V. Sydorchuk2.001011111042WSep 18 · 12:55M. Kornijchuk3.40511291O. Bolnyh1.3011811113LSep 10 · 10:55O. Maslovskyi1.1711129113O. Bolnyh4.509101151LSep 10 · 09:55I. Fokin1.17611117113O. Bolnyh4.5011971192LSep 10 · 08:25A. Nikolenko1.131113113O. Bolnyh5.5081170
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