TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13155825
Played Sep 19Finished
Mykhailo Senyk
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
711811114118117
Viktor Sydorchuk
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:00 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMykhailo Senyk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMykhailo Senyk above · Viktor Sydorchuk below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 89 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Mykhailo Senyk at 54.0%
89 points played in total.
H2H Mykhailo Senyk 42–21 Viktor Sydorchuk Viktor Sydorchuk has won 21 of their 63 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 18h before this match
Sydorchuk beat Senyk 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:00What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Senyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
42-21 in 63
Senyk
Correct
gap of 21 in 63, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Senyk 596 vs Sydorchuk 715
Sydorchuk
Wrong
both rated, 119 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Senyk 40% vs Sydorchuk 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Senyk 30% vs Sydorchuk 60%
Sydorchuk
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Senyk +2 · Sydorchuk -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Senyk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Senyk form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSenyk 1.67 / Sydorchuk 2.10
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Senyk)-1.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13155825
Senyk1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite70% won 75 of 107
Up 2–0, closes it93% 42 of 45
Up 1–0, closes it82% 54 of 66
Sydorchuk2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog34% won 51 of 151
Down 0–1, comes back11% 8 of 74
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSenyk7wins
AwaySydorchuk3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderSenyk leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSenyk100%6 of 6
AwaySydorchuk75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Senyk6Sydorchuk4n = 10Senyk took 6 of 10
S2Senyk6Sydorchuk4n = 10Senyk took 6 of 10
S3Senyk8Sydorchuk1n = 9Senyk took 8 of 9
S4Senyk4Sydorchuk2n = 6Senyk took 4 of 6
S5Senyk2Sydorchuk3n = 5Sydorchuk took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSenykSydorchukSenyk − SydorchukBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.437.9+3.5per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSenykSydorchukBasisWin rate · lifetime146 / 353 vs 147 / 34241.4%43%146 / 353 vs 147 / 342Avg sets wonper match1.71.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.036.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SenykSenyk 1.67/Sydorchuk 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Senyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Senyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LSep 18 · 11:55M. Senyk45111141182V. Sydorchuk49136118113
LSep 13 · 05:25M. Senyk3581111232V. Sydorchuk44116511113
WSep 5 · 09:55M. Senyk521115113123V. Sydorchuk53817711102
WSep 1 · 10:05M. Senyk331111113V. Sydorchuk207760
WAug 18 · 07:55M. Senyk517111111113V. Sydorchuk3811136352
LAug 17 · 13:25M. Senyk4599111152V. Sydorchuk47111159113
WAug 13 · 07:25M. Senyk331111113V. Sydorchuk236890
WAug 12 · 15:25M. Senyk351113113V. Sydorchuk2991190
WAug 7 · 07:25M. Senyk4411913113V. Sydorchuk388111181
M. Senyk10
LSep 19 · 07:55M. Senyk3.005149101O. Bolnyh1.36111211123LSep 19 · 06:55B. Pyrtyk1.171111153M. Senyk4.5046130WSep 18 · 17:55M. Senyk1.441111113V. Moroz2.633880WSep 18 · 16:25M. Senyk1.531211113M. Kornijchuk2.3810620LSep 18 · 14:55M. Senyk3.0089100O. Bolnyh1.361111123LSep 18 · 13:25M. Senyk6.5011716472P. Chyzh1.109111411113LSep 18 · 11:55M. Senyk1.73111141182V. Sydorchuk2.00136118113LSep 13 · 10:55M. Senyk1.284690V. Moroz3.501111113LSep 13 · 08:55P. Chyzh1.201311113M. Senyk4.3311690WSep 13 · 07:55M. Senyk1.361113123O. Kulbach3.00811100
V. Sydorchuk10
LSep 19 · 07:25P. Chyzh1.25511511123V. Sydorchuk3.75118114102WSep 19 · 06:25V. Sydorchuk1.33911116113M. Kornijchuk3.2511891182LSep 18 · 18:25M. Kornijchuk4.00118711113V. Sydorchuk1.2261111652LSep 18 · 17:25P. Chyzh1.531111113V. Sydorchuk2.387920WSep 18 · 15:55V. Moroz4.334830V. Sydorchuk1.201111113LSep 18 · 13:55O. Bolnyh1.73128412113V. Sydorchuk2.001011111042WSep 18 · 11:55M. Senyk1.73111141182V. Sydorchuk2.00136118113WSep 13 · 11:25V. Sydorchuk1.141111113O. Kulbach5.007520WSep 13 · 09:25M. Kornijchuk3.257790V. Sydorchuk1.331111113LSep 13 · 07:25P. Chyzh1.73111113113V. Sydorchuk2.00961541
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