TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13155489
Played Sep 19Finished
Pavlo Chyzh
Home
1.29
At publish
Won last 14Form at publish
10–0Last 10Won last 14
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1175111146111210
Oleksandr Bolnyh
Away
3.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:02 and never touched — 57.3% is still 57.3%
Graded at full timePavlo Chyzh to win
57.3%
57.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPavlo Chyzh above · Oleksandr Bolnyh below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 88 set 5, 12-10 — our read held Pavlo Chyzh at 57.3%
88 points played in total.
H2H Pavlo Chyzh 2–1 Oleksandr Bolnyh Oleksandr Bolnyh has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 11h before this match
Chyzh beat Bolnyh 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:02What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Chyzh
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chyzh 947 vs Bolnyh 775
Chyzh
Correct
both rated, 172 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chyzh 100% vs Bolnyh 60%
Chyzh
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chyzh 100% vs Bolnyh 40%
Chyzh
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chyzh +14 · Bolnyh -2
Chyzh
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 74% — Strong (leans Chyzh) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bolnyh form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChyzh 1.28 / Bolnyh 3.50
Signal prob.74% / 26%
Edge (Chyzh)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13155489
Chyzh1.28
100%won 10 of 10 · last 10
Won last 14
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 44 of 78
Up 2–0, closes it100% 18 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it77% 27 of 35
Bolnyh3.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog33% won 36 of 110
Down 0–1, comes back19% 13 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 47
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeChyzh2wins
AwayBolnyh1wins
1 of 3 to a deciderChyzh leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chyzh1Bolnyh2n = 3Bolnyh took 2 of 3
S2Chyzh3Bolnyh0n = 3Chyzh took 3 of 3
S3Chyzh2Bolnyh1n = 3Chyzh took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricChyzhBolnyhC − BBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match40.737.0+3.7per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChyzhBolnyhBasisWin rate · lifetime95 / 221 vs 86 / 19343%44.6%95 / 221 vs 86 / 193Avg sets wonper match1.81.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.936.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChyzhChyzh 1.28/Bolnyh 3.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
73.9%
Chyzh · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Chyzh won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WSep 18 · 18:55P. Chyzh341111123O. Bolnyh2266100
LAug 30 · 10:25P. Chyzh4391191132O. Bolnyh49117119113
WAug 29 · 18:25P. Chyzh4591111143O. Bolnyh401198121
P. Chyzh10
WSep 19 · 04:23P. Chyzh1.2091111113M. Kornijchuk4.33116561WSep 18 · 18:55O. Bolnyh2.7566100P. Chyzh1.401111123WSep 18 · 17:25P. Chyzh1.531111113V. Sydorchuk2.387920WSep 18 · 15:25M. Kornijchuk7.00124971P. Chyzh1.08101111113WSep 18 · 13:25M. Senyk6.5011716472P. Chyzh1.109111411113WSep 18 · 12:25V. Moroz5.5011951132P. Chyzh1.13911115113WSep 13 · 10:25P. Chyzh1.301111123M. Kornijchuk3.4033100WSep 13 · 08:55P. Chyzh1.201311113M. Senyk4.3311690WSep 13 · 07:25P. Chyzh1.73111113113V. Sydorchuk2.00961541WSep 13 · 05:55P. Chyzh1.259111011113O. Kulbach3.7511312792
O. Bolnyh10
LSep 19 · 04:55B. Pyrtyk1.331081111113O. Bolnyh3.2512118632LSep 18 · 18:55O. Bolnyh2.7566100P. Chyzh1.401111123WSep 18 · 16:55V. Moroz4.00115471O. Bolnyh1.2261111113WSep 18 · 14:55M. Senyk3.0089100O. Bolnyh1.361111123WSep 18 · 13:55O. Bolnyh1.73128412113V. Sydorchuk2.001011111042WSep 18 · 12:55M. Kornijchuk3.40511291O. Bolnyh1.3011811113LSep 10 · 10:55O. Maslovskyi1.1711129113O. Bolnyh4.509101151LSep 10 · 09:55I. Fokin1.17611117113O. Bolnyh4.5011971192LSep 10 · 08:25A. Nikolenko1.131113113O. Bolnyh5.5081170LSep 10 · 06:25V. Ivanytskyi1.141111113O. Bolnyh5.008840
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