TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13121807
Played Sep 13Finished
Pavlo Chyzh
Home
1.25
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
9111131012117119
Oleksii Kulbach
Away
3.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:55 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timePavlo Chyzh to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPavlo Chyzh above · Oleksii Kulbach below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 94 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Pavlo Chyzh at 54.9%
94 points played in total.
H2H Pavlo Chyzh 0–1 Oleksii Kulbach Pavlo Chyzh has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 17h before this match
Kulbach beat Chyzh 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:55What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Chyzh
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Chyzh 768 vs Kulbach 439
Chyzh
Correct
both rated, 329 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chyzh 80% vs Kulbach 60%
Chyzh
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chyzh 50% vs Kulbach 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chyzh +4 · Kulbach +1
Chyzh
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Chyzh) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kulbach form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (27%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChyzh 1.25 / Kulbach 3.75
Signal prob.75% / 25%
Edge (Chyzh)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13121807
Chyzh1.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite50% won 34 of 68
Up 2–0, closes it100% 13 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it72% 21 of 29
Kulbach3.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog16% won 16 of 99
Down 0–1, comes back7% 5 of 68
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeChyzh0wins
AwayKulbach1wins
Kulbach leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricChyzhKulbachC − KBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match27.039.0−12.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChyzhKulbachBasisWin rate · lifetime86 / 214 vs 47 / 19640.2%24%86 / 214 vs 47 / 196Avg sets wonper match1.71.4per matchAvg pointsper match35.533.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChyzhChyzh 1.25/Kulbach 3.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
75%
Chyzh · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Chyzh won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LSep 12 · 13:25P. Chyzh27811171O. Kulbach3911116113
P. Chyzh10
WSep 13 · 04:25P. Chyzh1.2211515113V. Moroz4.007111341WSep 12 · 17:55P. Chyzh1.228101111113V. Moroz4.0011128972WSep 12 · 16:25P. Chyzh1.501113113M. Senyk2.5071160WSep 12 · 14:55P. Chyzh1.5313912113M. Kornijchuk2.3811111031LSep 12 · 13:25P. Chyzh1.30811171O. Kulbach3.4011116113LSep 12 · 11:55P. Chyzh1.61211441V. Sydorchuk2.2011911113LAug 30 · 10:25O. Bolnyh3.25117119113P. Chyzh1.3391191132WAug 30 · 09:25P. Chyzh2.25713119113V. Ivanytskyi1.57111151192LAug 30 · 08:25P. Chyzh1.3312681182P. Melnichuk3.251011119113LAug 30 · 06:55P. Chyzh1.731111951V. Sydorchuk2.0013911113
O. Kulbach10
WSep 13 · 04:55M. Kornijchuk1.283970O. Kulbach3.501111113LSep 12 · 18:55M. Kornijchuk1.441111113O. Kulbach2.639730LSep 12 · 17:25O. Kulbach5.00911651V. Sydorchuk1.141181173WSep 12 · 15:25M. Senyk1.30911691O. Kulbach3.4011811103WSep 12 · 13:25P. Chyzh1.30811171O. Kulbach3.4011116113LSep 12 · 12:25V. Moroz1.6111912113O. Kulbach2.209111081WSep 5 · 10:25M. Kornijchuk1.22211117102O. Kulbach4.00118711123LSep 5 · 09:25O. Kulbach5.005940O. Bolnyh1.141111113LSep 5 · 08:25O. Kulbach2.7558120M. Senyk1.401111143WSep 5 · 06:55O. Kulbach1.73118911113A. Lanchut2.0081111872
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