TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13152773
Played Sep 19Finished
David Mikula
Home
1.40
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1181311811114––
Zbynek Zientek
Away
2.75
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:23 and never touched — 57.1% is still 57.1%
Graded at full timeDavid Mikula to win
57.1%
57.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDavid Mikula above · Zbynek Zientek below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 77 set 4, 11-4 — our read held David Mikula at 57.1%
77 points played in total.
H2H David Mikula 6–4 Zbynek Zientek Zbynek Zientek has won 4 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:23What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Mikula
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-4 in 10
Mikula
Correct
gap of 2 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mikula 1344 vs Zientek 1301
Mikula
Correct
both rated, 43 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mikula 60% vs Zientek 40%
Mikula
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mikula 30% vs Zientek 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mikula +2 · Zientek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Mikula) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mikula form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMikula 1.40 / Zientek 2.75
Signal prob.67% / 33%
Edge (Mikula)+0.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13152773
Mikula1.40
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Sep 15)
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite64% won 37 of 58
Up 2–0, closes it93% 25 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it90% 34 of 38
Zientek2.75
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Sep 16)
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog50% won 86 of 173
Down 0–1, comes back34% 33 of 98
Down 0–2, comes back19% 10 of 53
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMikula6wins
AwayZientek4wins
1 of 10 to a deciderMikula leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMikula83.3%5 of 6
AwayZientek75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mikula6Zientek4n = 10Mikula took 6 of 10
S2Mikula6Zientek4n = 10Mikula took 6 of 10
S3Mikula5Zientek5n = 10split evenly
S4Mikula4Zientek1n = 5Mikula took 4 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMikulaZientekM − ZBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match36.532.9+3.6per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMikulaZientekBasisWin rate · lifetime166 / 358 vs 194 / 39946.4%48.6%166 / 358 vs 194 / 399Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.738.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MikulaMikula 1.40/Zientek 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.1%
Mikula · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Mikula won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 15 · 08:00D. Mikula331111113Z. Zientek178540
WAug 24 · 18:30D. Mikula4113116113Z. Zientek341191131
WJul 15 · 07:00D. Mikula331111113Z. Zientek239770
LJul 13 · 18:00D. Mikula357611111Z. Zientek4411119133
WJul 9 · 08:30D. Mikula4591112133Z. Zientek3811610111
LJul 3 · 09:00D. Mikula2881190Z. Zientek351113113
WJul 3 · 07:00D. Mikula4011117113Z. Zientek27551161
LJun 4 · 09:30D. Mikula2999110Z. Zientek351111133
LJun 4 · 06:00D. Mikula4812981182Z. Zientek511011118113
WDec 15 · 15:00D. Mikula331111113Z. Zientek257990
D. Mikula10
WSep 19 · 20:00R. Kvasnicka2.00111151172D. Mikula1.73513117113WSep 19 · 19:00A. Schneeberger3.00111011742D. Mikula1.36212911113WSep 15 · 09:30D. Tyn1.82911101142D. Mikula1.85119126113WSep 15 · 08:00D. Mikula1.531111113Z. Zientek2.388540LSep 15 · 07:30D. Tyn2.25111011113D. Mikula1.57712981WSep 15 · 06:00D. Mikula1.67117811113V. Kocian2.1061111542LSep 9 · 09:00J. Stach1.70131212113D. Mikula2.0011101491LSep 9 · 08:30D. Mikula1.9181171362E. Sionkala1.801191111113LSep 9 · 07:00D. Mikula2.6351111962J. Stach1.44115711113LSep 9 · 06:00F. Zurek2.001113124113D. Mikula1.73511141162
Z. Zientek10
LSep 19 · 19:30Z. Zientek2.382911101R. Kvasnicka1.5311119123LSep 16 · 13:30A. Schneeberger1.65118129113Z. Zientek2.10711101152WSep 16 · 12:30Z. Balusek1.73118791Z. Zientek2.0081111113LSep 16 · 11:30Z. Zientek2.2511411672V. Kocian1.57711811113WSep 16 · 10:30A. Schneeberger1.53311111082Z. Zientek2.38117512113LSep 15 · 09:00V. Kocian1.73201156113Z. Zientek2.00188111152LSep 15 · 08:00D. Mikula1.531111113Z. Zientek2.388540LSep 15 · 07:00V. Kocian1.80811611113Z. Zientek1.9111711662LSep 15 · 06:30Z. Zientek1.671197101D. Tyn2.1091111123WSep 13 · 13:00R. Guliak1.47131159102Z. Zientek2.351191111123
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