TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13152627
Played Sep 19Finished
Jakub Simecek
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1198111210117––
Adrian Walek
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:43 and never touched — 56.5% is still 56.5%
Graded at full timeJakub Simecek to win
56.5%
56.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Simecek above · Adrian Walek below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 79 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Jakub Simecek at 56.5%
79 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Simecek 10–7 Adrian Walek Adrian Walek has won 7 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:43What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Simecek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-7 in 17
Simecek
Correct
gap of 3 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Simecek 1595 vs Walek 1586
Simecek
Correct
both rated, 8 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Simecek 40% vs Walek 20%
Simecek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Simecek 20% vs Walek 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Simecek +1 · Walek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Simecek) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Walek form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSimecek 1.80 / Walek 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Simecek)+2.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13152627
Simecek1.80
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 68 of 114
Up 2–0, closes it88% 36 of 41
Up 1–0, closes it68% 45 of 66
Walek1.91
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog49% won 78 of 158
Down 0–1, comes back34% 26 of 76
Down 0–2, comes back16% 6 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSimecek7wins
AwayWalek3wins
6 of 10 to a deciderSimecek leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSimecek83.3%5 of 6
AwayWalek50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Simecek6Walek4n = 10Simecek took 6 of 10
S2Simecek5Walek5n = 10split evenly
S3Simecek5Walek5n = 10split evenly
S4Simecek4Walek6n = 10Walek took 6 of 10
S5Simecek5Walek1n = 6Simecek took 5 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home550%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSimecekWalekS − WBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match44.642.6+2.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSimecekWalekBasisWin rate · lifetime144 / 272 vs 235 / 46452.9%50.7%144 / 272 vs 235 / 464Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.439.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SimecekSimecek 1.80/Walek 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Simecek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Simecek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 19 · 06:00J. Simecek4211812113A. Walek379111071
WAug 7 · 11:30J. Simecek4111118113A. Walek32941181
LAug 6 · 13:30J. Simecek41111154102A. Walek47671111123
WAug 6 · 11:30J. Simecek51991111113A. Walek4511118872
WAug 3 · 08:30J. Simecek521111910113A. Walek4459111272
LJul 31 · 12:00J. Simecek398911111A. Walek4211117133
WJul 22 · 11:30J. Simecek50881111123A. Walek46111177102
WJul 20 · 09:32J. Simecek481111310133A. Walek49871112112
LJul 20 · 07:00J. Simecek32912651A. Walek43111011113
WJun 28 · 13:30J. Simecek50118119113A. Walek4181151162
J. Simecek10
WSep 19 · 08:00J. Simecek1.61141256113D. Langer2.201210111142LSep 19 · 07:30S. Byrtus2.631112133J. Simecek1.44810110WSep 3 · 16:58D. Unzeitig1.91121181342J. Simecek1.801421111113LSep 3 · 16:30J. Simecek1.80111013101D. Unzeitig1.9191215123LSep 3 · 15:00J. Simecek2.3898110T. Kypr1.531111133LSep 3 · 14:00M. Bereiter1.7391115113J. Simecek2.001191391WAug 28 · 12:59L. Martinak1.251181110102J. Simecek3.75511912123LAug 28 · 12:00J. Hutnik1.501111113J. Simecek2.506950LAug 28 · 11:00L. Martinak1.831112113J. Simecek1.8331030LAug 28 · 10:30J. Simecek1.67111061262T. Petrek2.109121110113
A. Walek10
WSep 19 · 07:00A. Walek2.0061111113D. Langer1.73117981WSep 15 · 17:00D. Machander1.859101191A. Walek1.8511124113LSep 15 · 16:30L. Martinak1.7361111113A. Walek2.00116791LSep 15 · 15:30A. Walek2.00118851F. Laburda1.7331111113LSep 15 · 14:30D. Machander1.83151267113A. Walek1.831310111162LSep 12 · 17:00D. Machander1.801411113A. Walek1.9112720LSep 12 · 16:30D. Heczko1.674111111113A. Walek2.1011134272LSep 12 · 15:30A. Walek1.9156120S. Byrtus1.801111143WSep 12 · 14:30D. Machander1.911110121182A. Walek1.80912146113LSep 12 · 13:30D. Unzeitig1.701115113A. Walek2.0081360
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.