TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13146926
Played Sep 18Finished
Martin Sobisek
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
9111210311811––
Martin Vizek
Away
2.38
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:27 and never touched — 55.3% is still 55.3%
Graded at full timeMartin Sobisek to win
55.3%
55.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMartin Sobisek above · Martin Vizek below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 75 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Martin Sobisek at 55.3%
75 points played in total.
H2H Martin Sobisek 17–5 Martin Vizek Martin Vizek has won 5 of their 22 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 5h before this match
Sobisek beat Vizek 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:27What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Sobisek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-5 in 22
Sobisek
Wrong
gap of 12 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sobisek 1685 vs Vizek 1674
Sobisek
Wrong
both rated, 11 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sobisek 60% vs Vizek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sobisek 40% vs Vizek 60%
Vizek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sobisek -1 · Vizek +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Sobisek) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vizek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSobisek 1.53 / Vizek 2.38
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Sobisek)+1.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13146926
Sobisek1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite64% won 106 of 167
Up 2–0, closes it98% 60 of 61
Up 1–0, closes it83% 81 of 98
Vizek2.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog45% won 32 of 71
Down 0–1, comes back30% 12 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back16% 3 of 19
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSobisek6wins
AwayVizek4wins
1 of 10 to a deciderSobisek leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSobisek83.3%5 of 6
AwayVizek75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sobisek6Vizek4n = 10Sobisek took 6 of 10
S2Sobisek4Vizek6n = 10Vizek took 6 of 10
S3Sobisek6Vizek4n = 10Sobisek took 6 of 10
S4Sobisek3Vizek3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSobisekVizekS − VBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match36.233.1+3.1per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSobisekVizekBasisWin rate · lifetime564 / 1195 vs 211 / 41247.2%51.2%564 / 1195 vs 211 / 412Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.738.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SobisekSobisek 1.53/Vizek 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.4%
Sobisek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Vizek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 18 · 06:30M. Sobisek331111113M. Vizek163490
LSep 13 · 03:00M. Sobisek33912120M. Vizek391114143
WSep 13 · 01:30M. Sobisek331111113M. Vizek185670
LSep 11 · 24:00M. Sobisek351161081M. Vizek3621112113
WAug 25 · 14:30M. Sobisek4111136113M. Vizek296111111
WAug 15 · 01:00M. Sobisek4411711153M. Vizek344116131
LAug 14 · 03:28M. Sobisek2211740M. Vizek351311113
WAug 13 · 22:30M. Sobisek48811135113M. Vizek47115111192
WAug 8 · 01:30M. Sobisek3911611113M. Vizek32611781
LAug 7 · 02:00M. Sobisek34771461M. Vizek45111112113
M. Sobisek10
LSep 18 · 10:00J. Hradecky1.911110113113M. Sobisek1.8091281192WSep 18 · 09:28J. Svoboda1.919550M. Sobisek1.801111113WSep 18 · 08:30J. Stolfa1.8091161162M. Sobisek1.91113114113LSep 18 · 07:30M. Sobisek1.6711145672J. Svoboda2.102121111113WSep 18 · 06:30M. Vizek2.003490M. Sobisek1.731111113LSep 16 · 03:00M. Sopko2.0011911143M. Sobisek1.738119121WSep 16 · 02:00M. Sobisek2.50131111113M. Regner1.50158841LSep 16 · 01:00M. Sobisek1.7312811692M. Sopko2.001011211113LSep 16 · 24:00M. Sychra1.5011119113M. Sobisek2.50761151LSep 15 · 22:30M. Chlebecek1.6711119113M. Sobisek2.10951191
M. Vizek10
WSep 18 · 10:30M. Vizek1.80811139113J. Svoboda1.91116111162WSep 18 · 09:00M. Vizek1.6111118113J. Stolfa2.20751171LSep 18 · 08:00J. Svoboda2.00912511113M. Vizek1.73111011742WSep 18 · 07:00J. Stolfa2.101279101M. Vizek1.67101111123LSep 18 · 06:30M. Vizek2.003490M. Sobisek1.731111113WSep 13 · 03:00M. Sobisek1.50912120M. Vizek2.501114143LSep 13 · 01:30M. Vizek2.205670M. Sobisek1.611111113LSep 13 · 24:30P. Pycha1.8311117113M. Vizek1.83971141WSep 12 · 23:30D. Tuma2.20514131272M. Vizek1.6111121114113WSep 12 · 22:30M. Vizek1.501111119113R. Krejci2.5013721182
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