TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13140658
Played Sep 18Finished
Michal Regner
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1210411119811116
Martin Skakal
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:52 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeMartin Skakal to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichal Regner above · Martin Skakal below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 93 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Martin Skakal at 58.9%
93 points played in total.
H2H Michal Regner 3–6 Martin Skakal Michal Regner has won 3 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:52What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Skakal
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-6 in 9
Skakal
Wrong
gap of 3 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Regner 1648 vs Skakal 1710
Skakal
Wrong
both rated, 62 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Regner 20% vs Skakal 40%
Skakal
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Regner 30% vs Skakal 50%
Skakal
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Regner -4 · Skakal -1
Regner
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Skakal) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skakal form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRegner 2.20 / Skakal 1.61
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Skakal)+2.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13140658
Regner2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog46% won 110 of 241
Down 0–1, comes back25% 28 of 114
Down 0–2, comes back9% 6 of 69
Skakal1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite55% won 33 of 60
Up 2–0, closes it90% 17 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it82% 22 of 27
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeRegner3wins
AwaySkakal6wins
2 of 9 to a deciderSkakal leads 6–3, and 2 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRegner40%2 of 5
AwaySkakal75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Regner5Skakal4n = 9Regner took 5 of 9
S2Regner2Skakal7n = 9Skakal took 7 of 9
S3Regner4Skakal5n = 9Skakal took 5 of 9
S4Regner1Skakal3n = 4Skakal took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home222%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home111%
2–3Decider, away111%
1–3Four sets, away222%
0–3Straight, away333%
These 9 meetings
MetricRegnerSkakalR − SBasisWins36−3in 9 meetingsFirst set54+1of 9Avg pointsper match30.735.4−4.7per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRegnerSkakalBasisWin rate · lifetime508 / 1052 vs 77 / 15048.3%51.3%508 / 1052 vs 77 / 150Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.037.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkakalRegner 2.20/Skakal 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.7%
Skakal · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Regner won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 10 · 02:00M. Regner46661111123M. Skakal48111179102
LAug 23 · 22:00M. Regner4616911552M. Skakal531411611113
WAug 14 · 03:28M. Regner371115113M. Skakal2761380
LAug 14 · 24:30M. Regner31129461M. Skakal43101111113
LJul 19 · 24:30M. Regner216690M. Skakal331111113
WMay 24 · 03:30M. Regner331111113M. Skakal112540
LMay 24 · 02:30M. Regner144640M. Skakal331111113
LMay 19 · 24:30M. Regner207850M. Skakal331111113
LMar 29 · 22:00M. Regner28114941M. Skakal3851111113
M. Regner10
LSep 18 · 01:30V. Vejvoda1.671111113M. Regner2.108940LSep 18 · 24:00M. Regner1.8311511482M. Klement1.83311811113LSep 17 · 23:00T. Franek1.50118144113M. Regner2.50611121162LSep 17 · 08:58J. Zuzanek1.91131011113M. Regner1.801112861WSep 17 · 08:30M. Regner2.0011811113J. Zuzanek1.73911791LSep 17 · 07:00M. Regner1.671261261J. Tazler2.10101114113LSep 17 · 06:00R. Wagner1.6111118113M. Regner2.20581191WSep 16 · 03:30M. Regner1.68121013113M. Sychra2.0510121191LSep 16 · 02:00M. Sobisek2.50131111113M. Regner1.50158841WSep 16 · 24:30M. Regner1.91111112113M. Chlebecek1.80971461
M. Skakal10
WSep 18 · 02:58V. Vejvoda1.577960M. Skakal2.251111113LSep 18 · 01:00M. Klement1.83118127113M. Skakal1.83811101162WSep 17 · 23:30M. Skakal2.5011211113V. Vejvoda1.50411881LSep 17 · 22:00M. Skakal1.806111141T. Franek1.9111137113WSep 10 · 03:29J. Tazler2.10811751M. Skakal1.6711611113LSep 10 · 02:00M. Skakal1.57111179102M. Regner2.25661111123WSep 10 · 01:00M. Skakal2.0011115113M. Pikous1.73791161LSep 10 · 24:00M. Sychra1.801114113M. Skakal1.9161270WSep 9 · 22:30J. Tazler2.2010812101M. Skakal1.61121110123LSep 9 · 21:30M. Skakal1.72411110J. Tazler2.001113133
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