TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13140423
Played Sep 18Finished
Ales Barton
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
7111181171012119
Jan Simecek
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:12 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAles Barton to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAles Barton above · Jan Simecek below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 97 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Ales Barton at 54.0%
97 points played in total.
H2H Ales Barton 1–2 Jan Simecek Ales Barton has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:12What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Simecek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Barton 1768 vs Simecek 1631
Barton
Correct
both rated, 137 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Barton 40% vs Simecek 20%
Barton
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Barton 50% vs Simecek 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Barton -1 · Simecek -4
Simecek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Barton)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Simecek form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBarton 1.83 / Simecek 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Barton)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13140423
Barton1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Simecek1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeBarton1wins
AwaySimecek2wins
1 of 3 to a deciderSimecek leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Barton1Simecek2n = 3Simecek took 2 of 3
S2Barton1Simecek2n = 3Simecek took 2 of 3
S3Barton1Simecek2n = 3Simecek took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricBartonSimecekB − SBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match38.741.0−2.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBartonSimecekBasisWin rate · lifetime227 / 433 vs 108 / 21852.4%49.5%227 / 433 vs 108 / 218Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.736.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BartonBarton 1.83/Simecek 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Barton · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Barton won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LAug 7 · 12:30A. Barton2661280J. Simecek361114113
WJul 6 · 16:30A. Barton44111110123J. Simecek376912101
LJun 5 · 12:00A. Barton4698111172J. Simecek50111189113
A. Barton10
LSep 17 · 23:00M. Wagner2.25119117113A. Barton1.5731191192WSep 13 · 09:00A. Barton1.671111133M. Huk2.1075110LSep 13 · 08:30A. Barton2.50291191L. Zeman1.5011119113LSep 13 · 07:00A. Barton3.007620E. Mares1.361111113WSep 13 · 06:00M. Huk2.209260A. Barton1.611111113LSep 11 · 09:30A. Barton1.654118121V. Svechota2.1011711143WSep 11 · 08:00A. Barton1.5312118113J. Ruzicka2.381071111WSep 11 · 07:30V. Svechota1.9161290A. Barton1.801114113WSep 11 · 06:00A. Barton1.4011118113R. Urbaniec2.75471181LAug 30 · 08:59A. Barton1.8016780M. Huk1.911811113
J. Simecek10
LSep 18 · 01:00J. Simecek2.637119101O. Kolisnyk1.4411911123LSep 17 · 22:30J. Ruzicka1.611111123J. Simecek2.2087100LSep 17 · 16:59J. Simecek1.83911571J. Kanera1.8311311113LSep 17 · 16:30O. Kolisnyk1.50121011113J. Simecek2.501012481LSep 17 · 15:30J. Simecek2.63149481M. Huk1.44121111113WSep 17 · 14:30J. Kanera1.805117101J. Simecek1.9111711123WSep 4 · 03:28J. Simecek1.801111113M. Wagner1.918880LSep 4 · 02:30J. Simecek1.73112911102M. Wagner2.00811119123WSep 4 · 01:30T. Franek2.1041060J. Simecek1.671112113WSep 4 · 24:00J. Simecek1.611111113M. Sychra2.204280
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