TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13135956
Played Sep 16Finished
Petr Picek
Home
1.29
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1311911311611––
Vaclav Dolezal
Away
3.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:47 and never touched — 74.4% is still 74.4%
Graded at full timePetr Picek to win
74.4%
74.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPetr Picek above · Vaclav Dolezal below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 75 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Petr Picek at 74.4%
75 points played in total.
H2H Petr Picek 16–6 Vaclav Dolezal Vaclav Dolezal has won 6 of their 22 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:47What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Picek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-6 in 22
Picek
Wrong
gap of 10 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Picek 1435 vs Dolezal 1439
Dolezal
Correct
both rated, 4 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Picek 40% vs Dolezal 60%
Dolezal
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Picek 20% vs Dolezal 70%
Dolezal
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Picek +1 · Dolezal +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Picek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dolezal form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPicek 1.28 / Dolezal 3.50
Signal prob.75% / 25%
Edge (Picek)+1.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13135956
Picek1.28
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 69 of 120
Up 2–0, closes it90% 34 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it79% 54 of 68
Dolezal3.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog29% won 33 of 114
Down 0–1, comes back21% 15 of 70
Down 0–2, comes back11% 5 of 44
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePicek7wins
AwayDolezal3wins
1 of 10 to a deciderPicek leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePicek70%7 of 10
AwayDolezaln = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Picek10Dolezal0n = 10Picek took 10 of 10
S2Picek6Dolezal4n = 10Picek took 6 of 10
S3Picek6Dolezal4n = 10Picek took 6 of 10
S4Picek3Dolezal3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPicekDolezalP − DBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set100+10of 10Avg pointsper match36.632.9+3.7per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPicekDolezalBasisWin rate · lifetime277 / 558 vs 386 / 78049.6%49.5%277 / 558 vs 386 / 780Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.838.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PicekPicek 1.28/Dolezal 3.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
74.7%
Picek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Dolezal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 16 · 24:00P. Picek31139361V. Dolezal44111111113
WAug 20 · 22:00P. Picek43111011113V. Dolezal31512861
WDec 11 · 23:30P. Picek331111113V. Dolezal239950
WDec 11 · 01:30P. Picek351112123V. Dolezal25510100
WDec 7 · 23:30P. Picek3911611113V. Dolezal30811561
LOct 14 · 03:30P. Picek41111145102V. Dolezal50971111123
WOct 14 · 24:30P. Picek4011117113V. Dolezal29381171
LOct 2 · 24:30P. Picek321164111V. Dolezal3941111133
WSep 16 · 03:00P. Picek331111113V. Dolezal269980
WSep 16 · 01:30P. Picek391111173V. Dolezal3289150
P. Picek10
WSep 15 · 23:00J. Steffan2.00781171P. Picek1.7311119113LSep 15 · 02:00P. Picek3.751611581O. Kucirek1.2518811113LSep 15 · 01:00P. Picek1.73611871J. Steffan2.0011911113WSep 15 · 24:00O. Vitrovyj2.389670P. Picek1.531111113LSep 14 · 22:30P. Klusacek1.6781111113P. Picek2.10119871LSep 8 · 02:00J. Steffan1.91911115113P. Picek1.8011951192LSep 8 · 24:30P. Picek2.0010570K. Darin1.731211113LSep 7 · 23:00P. Picek2.63711291M. Placek1.4411911113LSep 7 · 22:00O. Vitrovyj2.7511811113P. Picek1.40911831LSep 1 · 03:30J. Jnr1.70791111123P. Picek2.02111165102
V. Dolezal10
LSep 16 · 01:00V. Dolezal2.63561171A. Svoboda1.4411119113WSep 15 · 22:30P. Klusacek1.5712516972V. Dolezal2.2510111411113LSep 15 · 03:30V. Dolezal1.558360V. Kosar2.351111113WSep 15 · 01:30V. Dolezal1.57411311113R. Bartunek2.2511311692LSep 15 · 24:30T. Regner2.63411711163V. Dolezal1.44119118142WSep 14 · 23:30M. Stefek2.6366111172V. Dolezal1.44111177113WSep 14 · 22:30V. Dolezal1.3311913113V. Kosar3.257111181WSep 13 · 13:29V. Dolezal2.6371111113D. Barton1.44116521LSep 13 · 12:30V. Dolezal2.3871161182D. Barton1.53119115113WSep 13 · 11:00V. Dolezal1.4411611113M. Stefek2.63911361
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