TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13120669
Played Sep 13Finished
Vaclav Dolezal
Home
2.38
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
711119611115811
David Barton
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:00 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDavid Barton to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVaclav Dolezal above · David Barton below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 90 set 5, 8-11 — our read held David Barton at 54.0%
90 points played in total.
H2H Vaclav Dolezal 2–4 David Barton Vaclav Dolezal has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 5h before this match
Barton beat Dolezal 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:00What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Barton
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-4 in 6
Barton
Correct
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dolezal 1402 vs Barton 1386
Dolezal
Wrong
both rated, 16 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dolezal 80% vs Barton 60%
Dolezal
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dolezal 50% vs Barton 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Dolezal +4 · Barton +1
Dolezal
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Barton) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dolezal form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDolezal 2.38 / Barton 1.53
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Barton)-1.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13120669
Dolezal2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog30% won 33 of 112
Down 0–1, comes back21% 14 of 68
Down 0–2, comes back11% 5 of 44
Barton1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite62% won 36 of 58
Up 2–0, closes it91% 19 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it72% 23 of 32
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeDolezal2wins
AwayBarton4wins
3 of 6 to a deciderBarton leads 4–2, and 3 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDolezaln = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayBarton66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dolezal0Barton6n = 6Barton took 6 of 6
S2Dolezal2Barton4n = 6Barton took 4 of 6
S3Dolezal3Barton3n = 6split evenly
S4Dolezal3Barton2n = 5Dolezal took 3 of 5
S5Dolezal2Barton1n = 3Dolezal took 2 of 3
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home233%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away233%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricDolezalBartonD − BBasisWins24−2in 6 meetingsFirst set06−6of 6Avg pointsper match41.844.7−2.9per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDolezalBartonBasisWin rate · lifetime383 / 775 vs 133 / 26149.4%51%383 / 775 vs 133 / 261Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.137.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BartonDolezal 2.38/Barton 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.8%
Barton · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Barton won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LSep 13 · 07:30V. Dolezal419141351D. Barton49111611113
LAug 20 · 01:00V. Dolezal2798100D. Barton341111123
WMar 8 · 11:30V. Dolezal527121111113D. Barton4211144942
LMar 8 · 07:00V. Dolezal4010911101D. Barton4212117123
LDec 7 · 07:30V. Dolezal4281141182D. Barton50118119113
WNov 23 · 09:00V. Dolezal491011412123D. Barton511281110102
V. Dolezal10
WSep 13 · 11:00V. Dolezal1.4411611113M. Stefek2.63911361WSep 13 · 10:00M. Ulrych2.007370V. Dolezal1.731111113WSep 13 · 09:07M. Stefek10.0043111632V. Dolezal1.031111914113WSep 13 · 08:30M. Stefek2.75411118132V. Dolezal1.40115511153LSep 13 · 07:30V. Dolezal2.389141351D. Barton1.53111611113LSep 13 · 06:30D. Horak1.2891111113V. Dolezal3.50113861LSep 12 · 02:58R. Urban1.5371111113V. Dolezal2.38118981LSep 12 · 02:30R. Urban1.731111143V. Dolezal2.0084120WSep 12 · 01:00M. Stefek2.63134371V. Dolezal1.44111111113LSep 11 · 23:30V. Dolezal1.805790J. Didi1.911111113
D. Barton10
WSep 13 · 11:30D. Barton1.801111133M. Ulrych1.9117110LSep 13 · 10:30M. Stefek2.50119116113D. Barton1.5041191182LSep 13 · 09:29D. Horak1.931311113D. Barton1.7811680WSep 13 · 08:00D. Barton2.20761111113D. Horak1.6111117152WSep 13 · 07:30V. Dolezal2.389141351D. Barton1.53111611113LSep 13 · 06:00D. Barton1.3087130M. Stefek3.401111153LAug 20 · 02:58T. Regner1.83125911123D. Barton1.831011115102LAug 20 · 02:00D. Barton1.611311119102T. Regner2.20155811123WAug 20 · 01:00D. Barton1.611111123V. Dolezal2.2098100LAug 20 · 24:00J. Didi1.831411113D. Barton1.8312780
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