TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13135475
Played Sep 15Finished
Jan Steffan
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711811119711––
Petr Picek
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:29 and never touched — 60.3% is still 60.3%
Graded at full timeJan Steffan to win
60.3%
60.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJan Steffan above · Petr Picek below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 75 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Jan Steffan at 60.3%
75 points played in total.
H2H Jan Steffan 36–44 Petr Picek Jan Steffan has won 36 of their 80 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:29What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Picek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
36-44 in 80
Picek
Correct
gap of 8 in 80, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Steffan 1474 vs Picek 1447
Steffan
Wrong
both rated, 26 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Steffan 80% vs Picek 20%
Steffan
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Steffan 80% vs Picek 10%
Steffan
Wrong
70pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Steffan +4 · Picek -2
Steffan
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Picek) · live re-read · sealed at 40% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Picek form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSteffan 2.00 / Picek 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Steffan)-0.3pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13135475
Steffan2.00
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 89 of 229
Down 0–1, comes back18% 21 of 117
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 67
Picek1.73
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 69 of 120
Up 2–0, closes it90% 34 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it79% 54 of 68
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSteffan4wins
AwayPicek6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderPicek leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSteffan50%2 of 4
AwayPicek66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Steffan4Picek6n = 10Picek took 6 of 10
S2Steffan4Picek6n = 10Picek took 6 of 10
S3Steffan6Picek4n = 10Steffan took 6 of 10
S4Steffan5Picek5n = 10split evenly
S5Steffan2Picek3n = 5Picek took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSteffanPicekS − PBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match41.543.8−2.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSteffanPicekBasisWin rate · lifetime468 / 977 vs 277 / 55747.9%49.7%468 / 977 vs 277 / 557Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.236.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PicekSteffan 2.00/Picek 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Picek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Picek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 15 · 23:00J. Steffan33781171P. Picek4211119113
WSep 15 · 01:00J. Steffan4211911113P. Picek32611871
WSep 8 · 02:00J. Steffan47911115113P. Picek4511951192
LAug 31 · 22:30J. Steffan4661191192P. Picek47118116113
LAug 22 · 23:00J. Steffan31138461P. Picek44111111113
LAug 2 · 23:30J. Steffan4378111162P. Picek47111168113
WAug 1 · 22:00J. Steffan44381111113P. Picek4411118682
WJul 26 · 23:30J. Steffan48131112123P. Picek4211714101
LJul 24 · 02:00J. Steffan4613123992P. Picek5411101111113
LJul 17 · 02:58J. Steffan35791181P. Picek4111118113
J. Steffan10
LSep 16 · 24:30J. Steffan2.3811119772P. Klusacek1.53361111113WSep 15 · 22:00A. Svoboda1.808811101J. Steffan1.9111116123WSep 15 · 03:30P. Klusacek1.99134451J. Steffan1.71111111113WSep 15 · 02:30O. Vitrovyj1.57131161192J. Steffan2.25158116113WSep 15 · 01:00P. Picek1.73611871J. Steffan2.0011911113LSep 14 · 23:30J. Steffan2.10711931P. Klusacek1.6711611113WSep 14 · 22:00J. Steffan1.731111113O. Kucirek2.008880WSep 14 · 13:28A. Svoboda1.80119981J. Steffan1.9161111113LSep 14 · 12:00J. Steffan1.801211209142A. Svoboda1.911461811163WSep 14 · 11:30K. Darin1.61281281J. Steffan2.20111110113
P. Picek10
LSep 16 · 24:00P. Picek1.28139361V. Dolezal3.50111111113LSep 15 · 02:00P. Picek3.751611581O. Kucirek1.2518811113LSep 15 · 01:00P. Picek1.73611871J. Steffan2.0011911113WSep 15 · 24:00O. Vitrovyj2.389670P. Picek1.531111113LSep 14 · 22:30P. Klusacek1.6781111113P. Picek2.10119871LSep 8 · 02:00J. Steffan1.91911115113P. Picek1.8011951192LSep 8 · 24:30P. Picek2.0010570K. Darin1.731211113LSep 7 · 23:00P. Picek2.63711291M. Placek1.4411911113LSep 7 · 22:00O. Vitrovyj2.7511811113P. Picek1.40911831LSep 1 · 03:30J. Jnr1.70791111123P. Picek2.02111165102
Upcoming Matches
J. Steffan
Sep 16 · 02:00J. Steffan1.61V. Dolezal2.20—Sep 16 · 18:00J. Steffan1.67T. Andrle2.10—Sep 16 · 19:30J. Steffan1.61O. Kucirek2.20—Sep 16 · 20:00J. Steffan1.67Y. Holovatiuk2.10—Sep 16 · 23:00J. Steffan2.10M. Smrcek1.67—Sep 17 · 24:00J. Steffan1.91P. Picek1.80—Sep 17 · 01:30J. Steffan1.73V. Dolezal2.00—Sep 17 · 02:30J. Steffan1.91R. Bartunek1.80—
P. Picek
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