TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13135827
Played Sep 16Finished
Vaclav Hruska Sr
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1151181210––––
Milan Chalupnicek
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:06 and never touched — 57.0% is still 57.0%
Graded at full timeMilan Chalupnicek to win
57.0%
57.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVaclav Hruska Sr above · Milan Chalupnicek below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 12-10
Point 57 set 3, 12-10 — our read held Milan Chalupnicek at 57.0%
57 points played in total.
H2H Vaclav Hruska Sr 29–27 Milan Chalupnicek Milan Chalupnicek has won 27 of their 56 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:06What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Chalupnicek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
29-27 in 56
Sr
Correct
gap of 2 in 56, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sr 1325 vs Chalupnicek 1354
Chalupnicek
Wrong
both rated, 29 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sr 60% vs Chalupnicek 40%
Sr
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sr 70% vs Chalupnicek 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sr +1 · Chalupnicek -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Chalupnicek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chalupnicek form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSr 2.10 / Chalupnicek 1.67
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Chalupnicek)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13135827
Sr2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog37% won 70 of 187
Down 0–1, comes back25% 27 of 110
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 64
Chalupnicek1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite64% won 57 of 89
Up 2–0, closes it96% 24 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it80% 36 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSr3wins
AwayChalupnicek7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderChalupnicek leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSr60%3 of 5
AwayChalupnicek100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sr5Chalupnicek5n = 10split evenly
S2Sr3Chalupnicek7n = 10Chalupnicek took 7 of 10
S3Sr4Chalupnicek6n = 10Chalupnicek took 6 of 10
S4Sr3Chalupnicek3n = 6split evenly
S5Sr1Chalupnicek3n = 4Chalupnicek took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricSrChalupnicekS − CBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.941.5−3.6per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSrChalupnicekBasisWin rate · lifetime460 / 981 vs 333 / 66846.9%49.9%460 / 981 vs 333 / 668Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.038.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChalupnicekSr 2.10/Chalupnicek 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57%
Chalupnicek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Sr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 20 · 09:30V. Sr258980M. Chalupnicek331111113
LAug 20 · 07:30V. Sr30108120M. Chalupnicek371211143
LJul 27 · 06:00V. Sr176650M. Chalupnicek331111113
WJul 21 · 17:00V. Sr46133811113M. Chalupnicek43111111642
LJul 21 · 15:00V. Sr29119361M. Chalupnicek4181111113
LJul 18 · 06:00V. Sr44113128102M. Chalupnicek528111011123
LJun 26 · 13:00V. Sr51613111382M. Chalupnicek541111615113
WJun 26 · 11:30V. Sr331111113M. Chalupnicek216960
LJun 25 · 07:30V. Sr56141481282M. Chalupnicek6016121110113
WJun 22 · 07:00V. Sr48111115113M. Chalupnicek417131381
V. Sr10
WSep 16 · 10:30P. Kulhanek2.00116841V. Sr1.7391111113LSep 14 · 17:30J. Strnad1.8511119113V. Sr1.85991161WSep 14 · 16:00P. Kulhanek2.00119931V. Sr1.7331111113LSep 14 · 15:00J. Strnad1.8011811113V. Sr1.91811571WSep 14 · 14:30V. Sr2.25131111113P. Berdych1.57155641WSep 12 · 20:58V. Sr2.001311113M. Novotny1.7311360LSep 12 · 20:30P. Berdych1.671111133V. Sr2.1074110WSep 12 · 19:30V. Sr2.0081311113J. Strnad1.731111481WSep 12 · 18:30M. Novotny1.50114111072V. Sr2.50611812113WSep 3 · 21:30V. Sr1.731111113J. Grohsgott2.004880
M. Chalupnicek10
WSep 16 · 12:00M. Chalupnicek1.4491111113P. Kulhanek2.63118551LSep 16 · 10:00M. Chalupnicek2.257811111J. Strnad1.5711118133LSep 11 · 13:30Z. Zikmunda1.40471111113M. Chalupnicek2.7511118792WSep 11 · 12:00M. Chalupnicek1.4011611113J. Grohsgott2.75511971WSep 11 · 11:30P. Kulhanek2.63913691M. Chalupnicek1.44111111113LSep 11 · 10:00M. Chalupnicek2.201011781Z. Zikmunda1.6112811113WSep 9 · 13:30J. Strnad1.499111181M. Chalupnicek2.2711613113WSep 9 · 12:00M. Chalupnicek1.531111133P. Kulhanek2.3847110WSep 9 · 11:30J. Svec2.1091111882M. Chalupnicek1.67119911113LSep 9 · 10:00M. Chalupnicek2.5011951332J. Strnad1.507111111113
Upcoming Matches
V. Sr
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