TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13130278
Played Sep 14Finished
Jaroslav Strnad 1964
Home
1.85
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119119911116––
Vaclav Hruska Sr
Away
1.85
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:59 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Strnad 1964 to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJaroslav Strnad 1964 above · Vaclav Hruska Sr below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 77 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Jaroslav Strnad 1964 at 54.0%
77 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Strnad 1964 76–79 Vaclav Hruska Sr Jaroslav Strnad 1964 has won 76 of their 155 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Strnad beat Sr 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:59What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.85 (50%)
Sr
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
76-79 in 155
Sr
Wrong
gap of 3 in 155, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Strnad 1451 vs Sr 1335
Strnad
Correct
both rated, 117 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Strnad 100% vs Sr 60%
Strnad
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Strnad 80% vs Sr 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Strnad +5 · Sr +1
Strnad
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Strnad)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Strnad form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (54%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStrnad 1.85 / Sr 1.85
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Strnad)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13130278
Strnad1.85
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Sr1.85
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStrnad7wins
AwaySr3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderStrnad leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStrnad87.5%7 of 8
AwaySrn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Strnad8Sr2n = 10Strnad took 8 of 10
S2Strnad5Sr5n = 10split evenly
S3Strnad5Sr5n = 10split evenly
S4Strnad3Sr3n = 6split evenly
S5Strnad3Sr1n = 4Strnad took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricStrnadSrStrnad − SrBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match39.833.7+6.1per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStrnadSrBasisWin rate · lifetime549 / 1117 vs 463 / 98849.2%46.9%549 / 1117 vs 463 / 988Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.536.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StrnadStrnad 1.85/Sr 1.85
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Strnad · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Strnad won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 14 · 15:00J. Strnad4111811113V. Sr31811571
LSep 12 · 19:30J. Strnad341111481V. Sr4381311113
WAug 18 · 22:00J. Strnad501111107113V. Sr4597121162
WAug 17 · 16:30J. Strnad331111113V. Sr169430
WAug 16 · 12:30J. Strnad331111113V. Sr229760
LAug 15 · 20:59J. Strnad4671181192V. Sr44114117113
WAug 15 · 18:30J. Strnad531112118113V. Sr3521431152
WAug 13 · 06:30J. Strnad331111113V. Sr197840
WAug 12 · 02:00J. Strnad551481111113V. Sr49121113852
LAug 2 · 10:30J. Strnad204790V. Sr331111113
J. Strnad10
WSep 14 · 16:30J. Strnad1.7341111113P. Berdych2.00117921WSep 14 · 15:00J. Strnad1.8011811113V. Sr1.91811571WSep 14 · 14:00P. Kulhanek2.0038111172J. Strnad1.73111167113WSep 12 · 21:30J. Strnad1.671111143P. Berdych2.1074120WSep 12 · 20:00J. Strnad2.751111113M. Novotny1.409960LSep 12 · 19:30V. Sr2.0081311113J. Strnad1.731111481WSep 12 · 18:00J. Strnad1.9171112113P. Berdych1.801151011WSep 11 · 17:29P. Berdych1.911191251J. Strnad1.8051114113LSep 11 · 16:30J. Strnad1.8391113582P. Berdych1.831121111113WSep 11 · 15:00J. Strnad1.501111113J. Grohsgott2.505650
V. Sr10
WSep 14 · 16:00P. Kulhanek2.00119931V. Sr1.7331111113LSep 14 · 15:00J. Strnad1.8011811113V. Sr1.91811571WSep 14 · 14:30V. Sr2.25131111113P. Berdych1.57155641WSep 12 · 20:58V. Sr2.001311113M. Novotny1.7311360LSep 12 · 20:30P. Berdych1.671111133V. Sr2.1074110WSep 12 · 19:30V. Sr2.0081311113J. Strnad1.731111481WSep 12 · 18:30M. Novotny1.50114111072V. Sr2.50611812113WSep 3 · 21:30V. Sr1.731111113J. Grohsgott2.004880WSep 3 · 20:30M. Lubas2.105790V. Sr1.671111113WSep 3 · 19:30V. Sr1.73119135123J. Grohsgott2.004111111102
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