TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13131968
Played Sep 16Finished
Tymur Ponomarenko
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511411411––––
Oleksandr Naida
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:43 and never touched — 64.9% is still 64.9%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Naida to win
64.9%
64.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTymur Ponomarenko above · Oleksandr Naida below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Point 46 set 3, 4-11 — our read held Oleksandr Naida at 64.9%
46 points played in total.
H2H Tymur Ponomarenko 6–14 Oleksandr Naida Tymur Ponomarenko has won 6 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:43What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Naida
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-14 in 20
Naida
Correct
gap of 8 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ponomarenko 1469 vs Naida 1511
Naida
Correct
both rated, 42 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ponomarenko 60% vs Naida 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ponomarenko 50% vs Naida 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Ponomarenko -1 · Naida +3
Naida
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Naida) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ponomarenko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPonomarenko 2.38 / Naida 1.53
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Naida)+2.4pp
Setka Cup · #13131968
Ponomarenko2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog34% won 32 of 93
Down 0–1, comes back15% 8 of 53
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 33
Naida1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite51% won 81 of 159
Up 2–0, closes it93% 41 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it75% 60 of 80
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePonomarenko1wins
AwayNaida9wins
5 of 10 to a deciderNaida leads 9–1, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePonomarenko25%1 of 4
AwayNaida100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ponomarenko4Naida6n = 10Naida took 6 of 10
S2Ponomarenko3Naida7n = 10Naida took 7 of 10
S3Ponomarenko3Naida7n = 10Naida took 7 of 10
S4Ponomarenko1Naida5n = 6Naida took 5 of 6
S5Ponomarenko1Naida4n = 5Naida took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricPonomarenkoNaidaP − NBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match34.341.1−6.8per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPonomarenkoNaidaBasisWin rate · lifetime207 / 380 vs 482 / 93654.5%51.5%207 / 380 vs 482 / 936Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.637.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NaidaPonomarenko 2.38/Naida 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.2%
Naida · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Naida won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 4 · 03:55T. Ponomarenko42117112113O. Naida3991131152
LAug 31 · 23:55T. Ponomarenko529111110112O. Naida51117812133
LAug 31 · 24:55T. Ponomarenko218850O. Naida331111113
LAug 28 · 14:35T. Ponomarenko44111031192O. Naida49712118113
LAug 25 · 23:35T. Ponomarenko229670O. Naida331111113
LAug 20 · 23:25T. Ponomarenko48111111962O. Naida52981311113
LAug 19 · 04:05T. Ponomarenko38411111022O. Naida49116912113
LAug 18 · 01:55T. Ponomarenko371181171O. Naida3941113113
LAug 14 · 03:55T. Ponomarenko195950O. Naida331111113
LAug 11 · 14:25T. Ponomarenko205690O. Naida331111113
T. Ponomarenko10
LSep 15 · 22:35T. Ponomarenko2.00531181R. Gnoevoy1.7311116113WSep 15 · 21:05T. Ponomarenko1.911111133V. Khamurda1.8098110WSep 11 · 03:55R. Gnoevoy1.508590T. Ponomarenko2.501111113WSep 11 · 02:55S. Abalmaz1.4481118582T. Ponomarenko2.631181611113LSep 10 · 23:25D. Derevynskyi1.731111133T. Ponomarenko2.0087110LSep 10 · 21:25V. Khamurda1.83391111113T. Ponomarenko1.8311118562WSep 8 · 19:25T. Ponomarenko2.38131114103S. Skachenko1.531561281WSep 8 · 17:55T. Ponomarenko2.00111175113V. Khamurda1.7388111192LSep 8 · 16:25T. Ponomarenko2.63113681S. Abalmaz1.4441111113LSep 8 · 14:55T. Ponomarenko2.38118951R. Gnoevoy1.5391111113
O. Naida10
WSep 15 · 23:05O. Naida1.831111812113V. Khamurda1.8346111492WSep 15 · 22:05S. Abalmaz1.44891181O. Naida2.6311113113WSep 15 · 03:55O. Naida1.831112113R. Gnoevoy1.8361060LSep 15 · 01:55V. Khamurda1.831111113O. Naida1.836990LSep 15 · 24:55O. Naida2.6371270S. Abalmaz1.441114113LSep 14 · 23:55D. Derevynskyi1.731111123O. Naida2.0068100LSep 14 · 22:25O. Naida2.104650S. Skachenko1.671111113LSep 9 · 03:35K. Hrynenko1.8311611113O. Naida1.83611971WSep 9 · 02:35D. Us2.3811351252O. Naida1.538111110113WSep 9 · 01:05S. Khandetskyi2.50114911112O. Naida1.50511119133
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