TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13132168
Played Sep 15Finished
Oleksandr Naida
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1141168111214119
Vitalii Khamurda
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:14 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVitalii Khamurda to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleksandr Naida above · Vitalii Khamurda below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 12-14
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 97 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Vitalii Khamurda at 54.0%
97 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Naida 117–86 Vitalii Khamurda Vitalii Khamurda has won 86 of their 203 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:14What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Khamurda
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
117-86 in 203
Naida
Correct
gap of 31 in 203, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Naida 1497 vs Khamurda 1601
Khamurda
Wrong
both rated, 104 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Naida 40% vs Khamurda 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Naida 50% vs Khamurda 70%
Khamurda
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Naida +2 · Khamurda -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Khamurda)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Khamurda form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNaida 1.83 / Khamurda 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Khamurda)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13132168
Naida1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Khamurda1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNaida8wins
AwayKhamurda2wins
Naida leads 8–2.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNaida100%8 of 8
AwayKhamurdan = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Naida8Khamurda2n = 10Naida took 8 of 10
S2Naida4Khamurda6n = 10Khamurda took 6 of 10
S3Naida5Khamurda5n = 10split evenly
S4Naida7Khamurda0n = 7Naida took 7 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home770%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricNaidaKhamurdaN − KBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match35.833.3+2.5per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNaidaKhamurdaBasisWin rate · lifetime482 / 936 vs 472 / 88451.5%53.4%482 / 936 vs 472 / 884Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.937.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KhamurdaNaida 1.83/Khamurda 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Khamurda · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Naida won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 26 · 01:35O. Naida165380V. Khamurda331111113
LAug 25 · 02:25O. Naida228680V. Khamurda331111113
WAug 21 · 02:25O. Naida4413911113V. Khamurda371111871
WAug 19 · 24:05O. Naida4011153113V. Khamurda375131181
WAug 17 · 23:55O. Naida44111111113V. Khamurda31813371
WAug 14 · 01:55O. Naida3511112113V. Khamurda30761161
WAug 11 · 15:55O. Naida4011511133V. Khamurda387119111
WAug 10 · 23:55O. Naida4111126123V. Khamurda4091011101
WAug 7 · 24:25O. Naida4311714113V. Khamurda303111241
WAug 5 · 02:35O. Naida331111113V. Khamurda248880
O. Naida10
WSep 16 · 24:05T. Ponomarenko2.385440O. Naida1.531111113WSep 15 · 22:05S. Abalmaz1.44891181O. Naida2.6311113113WSep 15 · 03:55O. Naida1.831112113R. Gnoevoy1.8361060LSep 15 · 01:55V. Khamurda1.831111113O. Naida1.836990LSep 15 · 24:55O. Naida2.6371270S. Abalmaz1.441114113LSep 14 · 23:55D. Derevynskyi1.731111123O. Naida2.0068100LSep 14 · 22:25O. Naida2.104650S. Skachenko1.671111113LSep 9 · 03:35K. Hrynenko1.8311611113O. Naida1.83611971WSep 9 · 02:35D. Us2.3811351252O. Naida1.538111110113WSep 9 · 01:05S. Khandetskyi2.50114911112O. Naida1.50511119133
V. Khamurda10
LSep 15 · 21:05T. Ponomarenko1.911111133V. Khamurda1.8098110WSep 15 · 03:25V. Khamurda1.911111113D. Derevynskyi1.808890WSep 15 · 01:55V. Khamurda1.831111113O. Naida1.836990LSep 15 · 24:25V. Khamurda1.83111181282S. Skachenko1.837131110113LSep 14 · 22:55V. Khamurda2.5011991192S. Abalmaz1.50211118113WSep 14 · 21:25V. Khamurda1.7311811113R. Gnoevoy2.00711641WSep 11 · 01:55V. Khamurda1.73111376163R. Gnoevoy2.004111111142WSep 11 · 24:25V. Khamurda1.8011711113D. Derevynskyi1.91711791WSep 10 · 22:55V. Khamurda2.50111111113S. Abalmaz1.50561381WSep 10 · 21:25V. Khamurda1.83391111113T. Ponomarenko1.8311118562
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