TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13132110
Played Sep 15Finished
Spartak Abalmaz
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811911113811––
Oleksandr Naida
Away
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:04 and never touched — 67.7% is still 67.7%
Graded at full timeSpartak Abalmaz to win
67.7%
67.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingSpartak Abalmaz above · Oleksandr Naida below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 72 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Spartak Abalmaz at 67.7%
72 points played in total.
H2H Spartak Abalmaz 69–42 Oleksandr Naida Oleksandr Naida has won 42 of their 111 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:04What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Abalmaz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
69-42 in 111
Abalmaz
Wrong
gap of 27 in 111, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Abalmaz 1609 vs Naida 1481
Abalmaz
Wrong
both rated, 128 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Abalmaz 60% vs Naida 20%
Abalmaz
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Abalmaz 60% vs Naida 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Abalmaz -2 · Naida +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Abalmaz)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Naida form (20%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAbalmaz 1.44 / Naida 2.63
Signal prob.68% / 32%
Edge (Abalmaz)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13132110
Abalmaz1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite60% won 159 of 266
Up 2–0, closes it96% 75 of 78
Up 1–0, closes it77% 115 of 149
Naida2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog44% won 71 of 161
Down 0–1, comes back27% 27 of 99
Down 0–2, comes back10% 5 of 50
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAbalmaz7wins
AwayNaida3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderAbalmaz leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAbalmaz75%6 of 8
AwayNaidan = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Abalmaz8Naida2n = 10Abalmaz took 8 of 10
S2Abalmaz7Naida3n = 10Abalmaz took 7 of 10
S3Abalmaz7Naida3n = 10Abalmaz took 7 of 10
S4Abalmaz2Naida3n = 5Naida took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricAbalmazNaidaA − NBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match37.733.5+4.2per matchSweeps50+53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAbalmazNaidaBasisWin rate · lifetime422 / 831 vs 482 / 93650.8%51.5%422 / 831 vs 482 / 936Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.238.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AbalmazAbalmaz 1.44/Naida 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
67.7%
Abalmaz · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Naida won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 15 · 24:55S. Abalmaz361114113O. Naida2671270
WSep 3 · 22:25S. Abalmaz331111113O. Naida197660
LAug 31 · 22:25S. Abalmaz357111071O. Naida4011612113
WAug 30 · 22:25S. Abalmaz50571111163O. Naida51111169142
WAug 28 · 13:35S. Abalmaz361111143O. Naida2659120
WAug 28 · 02:55S. Abalmaz331111113O. Naida217950
LAug 26 · 03:35S. Abalmaz4111114692O. Naida50981111113
WAug 24 · 22:25S. Abalmaz381115123O. Naida29613100
WAug 21 · 04:25S. Abalmaz4111712113O. Naida348111051
LAug 18 · 23:05S. Abalmaz341110671O. Naida3951211113
S. Abalmaz10
WSep 16 · 24:35S. Abalmaz1.671111113R. Gnoevoy2.108990WSep 15 · 23:35S. Skachenko1.8311891472S. Abalmaz1.838111112113LSep 15 · 04:25S. Skachenko1.831381112113S. Abalmaz1.83111161492LSep 15 · 02:55S. Abalmaz1.73711881R. Gnoevoy2.0011911113WSep 15 · 24:55O. Naida2.6371270S. Abalmaz1.441114113WSep 14 · 22:55V. Khamurda2.5011991192S. Abalmaz1.50211118113WSep 14 · 21:55D. Derevynskyi1.8011113111S. Abalmaz1.9181311133WSep 11 · 04:25D. Derevynskyi1.73771191S. Abalmaz2.0011119113LSep 11 · 02:55S. Abalmaz1.4481118582T. Ponomarenko2.631181611113WSep 11 · 24:55R. Gnoevoy1.919460S. Abalmaz1.801111113
O. Naida10
WSep 16 · 24:05T. Ponomarenko2.385440O. Naida1.531111113WSep 15 · 23:05O. Naida1.831111812113V. Khamurda1.8346111492WSep 15 · 03:55O. Naida1.831112113R. Gnoevoy1.8361060LSep 15 · 01:55V. Khamurda1.831111113O. Naida1.836990LSep 15 · 24:55O. Naida2.6371270S. Abalmaz1.441114113LSep 14 · 23:55D. Derevynskyi1.731111123O. Naida2.0068100LSep 14 · 22:25O. Naida2.104650S. Skachenko1.671111113LSep 9 · 03:35K. Hrynenko1.8311611113O. Naida1.83611971WSep 9 · 02:35D. Us2.3811351252O. Naida1.538111110113WSep 9 · 01:05S. Khandetskyi2.50114911112O. Naida1.50511119133
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