TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13128504
Played Sep 15Finished
Vitalii Khamurda
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118118119––––
Dmytro Derevynskyi
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:20 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDmytro Derevynskyi to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVitalii Khamurda above · Dmytro Derevynskyi below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 58 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Dmytro Derevynskyi at 54.0%
58 points played in total.
H2H Vitalii Khamurda 57–51 Dmytro Derevynskyi Dmytro Derevynskyi has won 51 of their 108 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:20What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Derevynskyi
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
57-51 in 108
Khamurda
Correct
gap of 6 in 108, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Khamurda 1610 vs Derevynskyi 1550
Khamurda
Correct
both rated, 60 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Khamurda 60% vs Derevynskyi 20%
Khamurda
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Khamurda 60% vs Derevynskyi 30%
Khamurda
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Khamurda +1 · Derevynskyi -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Derevynskyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Derevynskyi form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKhamurda 1.91 / Derevynskyi 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Derevynskyi)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13128504
Khamurda1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog46% won 65 of 143
Down 0–1, comes back29% 26 of 90
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 47
Derevynskyi1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 189 of 323
Up 2–0, closes it91% 87 of 96
Up 1–0, closes it71% 135 of 189
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKhamurda5wins
AwayDerevynskyi5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKhamurda33.3%1 of 3
AwayDerevynskyi42.9%3 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Khamurda3Derevynskyi7n = 10Derevynskyi took 7 of 10
S2Khamurda4Derevynskyi6n = 10Derevynskyi took 6 of 10
S3Khamurda4Derevynskyi6n = 10Derevynskyi took 6 of 10
S4Khamurda5Derevynskyi2n = 7Khamurda took 5 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKhamurdaDerevynskyiK − DBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match36.037.5−1.5per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKhamurdaDerevynskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime471 / 882 vs 475 / 87253.4%54.5%471 / 882 vs 475 / 872Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.139.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DerevynskyiKhamurda 1.91/Derevynskyi 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Derevynskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Khamurda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 11 · 24:25V. Khamurda4011711113D. Derevynskyi34711791
LSep 8 · 19:55V. Khamurda217770D. Derevynskyi331111113
LSep 8 · 03:25V. Khamurda431199141D. Derevynskyi4791111163
LSep 3 · 22:55V. Khamurda32117681D. Derevynskyi4181111113
WAug 31 · 22:55V. Khamurda50611913113D. Derevynskyi44118111132
WAug 31 · 01:25V. Khamurda3841211113D. Derevynskyi311110371
WAug 26 · 24:05V. Khamurda4071111113D. Derevynskyi35119691
WAug 24 · 21:55V. Khamurda4381212113D. Derevynskyi3511101041
LAug 18 · 01:25V. Khamurda2767140D. Derevynskyi381111163
LAug 14 · 03:25V. Khamurda26410120D. Derevynskyi371112143
V. Khamurda10
WSep 15 · 01:55V. Khamurda1.831111113O. Naida1.836990LSep 15 · 24:25V. Khamurda1.83111181282S. Skachenko1.837131110113LSep 14 · 22:55V. Khamurda2.5011991192S. Abalmaz1.50211118113WSep 14 · 21:25V. Khamurda1.7311811113R. Gnoevoy2.00711641WSep 11 · 01:55V. Khamurda1.73111376163R. Gnoevoy2.004111111142WSep 11 · 24:25V. Khamurda1.8011711113D. Derevynskyi1.91711791WSep 10 · 22:55V. Khamurda2.50111111113S. Abalmaz1.50561381WSep 10 · 21:25V. Khamurda1.83391111113T. Ponomarenko1.8311118562LSep 8 · 19:55V. Khamurda1.807770D. Derevynskyi1.911111113LSep 8 · 17:55T. Ponomarenko2.00111175113V. Khamurda1.7388111192
D. Derevynskyi10
LSep 15 · 02:25D. Derevynskyi1.73117116102S. Skachenko2.00611311123LSep 15 · 01:25D. Derevynskyi1.80911811122R. Gnoevoy1.91118118143WSep 14 · 23:55D. Derevynskyi1.731111123O. Naida2.0068100LSep 14 · 21:55D. Derevynskyi1.8011113111S. Abalmaz1.9181311133LSep 12 · 03:35D. Derevynskyi1.571211138102O. Melashenko2.251491111123LSep 12 · 01:35Y. Krol2.631211133D. Derevynskyi1.44105110WSep 12 · 24:35D. Derevynskyi2.631111113O. Gomilko1.445760WSep 11 · 23:35K. Hrynenko2.50711791D. Derevynskyi1.5011711113LSep 11 · 24:25V. Khamurda1.8011711113D. Derevynskyi1.91711791WSep 8 · 19:55V. Khamurda1.807770D. Derevynskyi1.911111113
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