TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13128521
Played Sep 14Finished
Vitalii Kobets
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1171517116711811
Oleksandr Melashenko
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:20 and never touched — 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Melashenko to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVitalii Kobets above · Oleksandr Melashenko below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 15-17
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 104 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Oleksandr Melashenko at 59.3%
104 points played in total.
H2H Vitalii Kobets 1–9 Oleksandr Melashenko Vitalii Kobets has won 1 of their 10 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 09:20What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Melashenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-9 in 10
Melashenko
Correct
gap of 8 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kobets 1514 vs Melashenko 1487
Kobets
Wrong
both rated, 26 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kobets 60% vs Melashenko 40%
Kobets
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kobets 60% vs Melashenko 30%
Kobets
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kobets -1 · Melashenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Melashenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Melashenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKobets 2.10 / Melashenko 1.67
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Melashenko)+3.5pp
Setka Cup · #13128521
Kobets2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog43% won 62 of 146
Down 0–1, comes back25% 20 of 81
Down 0–2, comes back11% 5 of 47
Melashenko1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 79 of 131
Up 2–0, closes it97% 33 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it75% 50 of 67
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKobets1wins
AwayMelashenko9wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMelashenko leads 9–1, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKobetsn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayMelashenko100%8 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kobets2Melashenko8n = 10Melashenko took 8 of 10
S2Kobets5Melashenko5n = 10split evenly
S3Kobets6Melashenko4n = 10Kobets took 6 of 10
S4Kobets1Melashenko7n = 8Melashenko took 7 of 8
S5Kobets0Melashenko3n = 3Melashenko took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKobetsMelashenkoK − MBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match34.240.5−6.3per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKobetsMelashenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime448 / 865 vs 434 / 85851.8%50.6%448 / 865 vs 434 / 858Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.638.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MelashenkoKobets 2.10/Melashenko 1.67
Hit
What we said
59.3%
Melashenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Melashenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 7 · 17:55V. Kobets1810530O. Melashenko341211113
LAug 31 · 14:25V. Kobets27471151O. Melashenko3911116113
LAug 3 · 13:55V. Kobets34811781O. Melashenko4011711113
WJul 22 · 23:35V. Kobets341211113O. Melashenko2710890
LJun 10 · 16:25V. Kobets351051191O. Melashenko3812114113
LDec 28 · 22:05V. Kobets4081111732O. Melashenko49118811113
LNov 24 · 02:05V. Kobets4681171192O. Melashenko49119117113
LNov 16 · 22:05V. Kobets33125971O. Melashenko43101111113
LOct 5 · 23:35V. Kobets4381111852O. Melashenko44114711113
LAug 14 · 21:05V. Kobets32881151O. Melashenko4211119113
V. Kobets10
LSep 14 · 21:05V. Kobets1.73119111162S. Khandetskyi2.00411113113WSep 9 · 20:25V. Kobets4.501111113K. Hrynenko1.179750WSep 9 · 18:25O. Melashenko1.5711711782V. Kobets2.25811611113WSep 9 · 16:25S. Khandetskyi2.00115118122V. Kobets1.73611911143LSep 9 · 15:25V. Kobets2.387712111S. Skachenko1.53111110133WSep 9 · 14:25D. Rehotun2.0010610V. Kobets1.731211113LSep 7 · 19:55V. Kobets2.2510590H. Kulishov1.571211113LSep 7 · 17:55O. Melashenko1.671211113V. Kobets2.1010530WSep 7 · 16:55V. Kobets1.8311119113S. Khandetskyi1.83441181WSep 7 · 15:55P. Ishchyk1.831159121V. Kobets1.8361111143
O. Melashenko10
WSep 14 · 21:35D. Rehotun3.001011781O. Melashenko1.3612211113LSep 13 · 04:05Y. Krol1.251312113O. Melashenko3.75111080WSep 13 · 02:35O. Melashenko1.618111311113M. Marchuk2.2011615672LSep 13 · 24:35K. Hrynenko1.6111117113O. Melashenko2.20551171LSep 12 · 22:35V. Lobas1.361411113O. Melashenko3.0012870LSep 12 · 21:35O. Gomilko1.831111113O. Melashenko1.836770WSep 12 · 03:35D. Derevynskyi1.571211138102O. Melashenko2.251491111123LSep 12 · 02:35O. Gomilko1.8091111113O. Melashenko1.91113771LSep 9 · 18:25O. Melashenko1.5711711782V. Kobets2.25811611113WSep 7 · 17:55O. Melashenko1.671211113V. Kobets2.1010530
Upcoming Matches
V. Kobets
Sep 15 · 01:35V. Kobets2.38H. Kulishov1.53—Sep 15 · 03:05V. Kobets1.44D. Rehotun2.63—Sep 15 · 13:55V. Kobets1.80S. Khandetskyi1.91—Sep 15 · 15:55V. Kobets1.67Y. Sokoltsov2.10—Sep 15 · 17:25V. Kobets1.44D. Rehotun2.63—Sep 15 · 18:25V. Kobets2.10O. Melashenko1.67—Sep 15 · 19:25V. Kobets2.10D. Derevynskyi1.67—
O. Melashenko
Sep 15 · 24:35O. Melashenko2.20H. Kulishov1.61—Sep 15 · 02:35O. Melashenko2.10S. Khandetskyi1.67—Sep 15 · 04:05O. Melashenko2.25K. Hrynenko1.57—Sep 15 · 14:25O. Melashenko1.67Y. Sokoltsov2.10—Sep 15 · 15:25O. Melashenko1.33D. Rehotun3.25—Sep 15 · 16:25O. Melashenko2.25D. Derevynskyi1.57—Sep 15 · 18:25O. Melashenko1.67V. Kobets2.10—Sep 15 · 20:25O. Melashenko2.10S. Khandetskyi1.67—
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