TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13116644
Played Sep 13Finished
Oleksandr Melashenko
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
8111161315116117
Maxim Marchuk
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:23 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Melashenko to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Melashenko above · Maxim Marchuk below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 13-15
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 99 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Oleksandr Melashenko at 58.9%
99 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Melashenko 36–23 Maxim Marchuk Maxim Marchuk has won 23 of their 59 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:23What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Melashenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
36-23 in 59
Melashenko
Correct
gap of 13 in 59, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Melashenko 1478 vs Marchuk 1466
Melashenko
Correct
both rated, 12 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Melashenko 20% vs Marchuk 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Melashenko 10% vs Marchuk 20%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Melashenko -3 · Marchuk -1
Melashenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Melashenko) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marchuk form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelashenko 1.61 / Marchuk 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Melashenko)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13116644
Melashenko1.61
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 78 of 130
Up 2–0, closes it97% 33 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it75% 50 of 67
Marchuk2.20
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog41% won 46 of 111
Down 0–1, comes back22% 12 of 55
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 33
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMelashenko8wins
AwayMarchuk2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMelashenko leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMelashenko100%3 of 3
AwayMarchuk28.6%2 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Melashenko3Marchuk7n = 10Marchuk took 7 of 10
S2Melashenko7Marchuk3n = 10Melashenko took 7 of 10
S3Melashenko6Marchuk4n = 10Melashenko took 6 of 10
S4Melashenko7Marchuk1n = 8Melashenko took 7 of 8
S5Melashenko3Marchuk1n = 4Melashenko took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMelashenkoMarchukMelashenko − MarchukBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match41.737.3+4.4per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelashenkoMarchukBasisWin rate · lifetime432 / 857 vs 215 / 47650.4%45.2%432 / 857 vs 215 / 476Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.237.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MelashenkoMelashenko 1.61/Marchuk 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.1%
Melashenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Melashenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 6 · 02:35O. Melashenko4181111113M. Marchuk31116771
WAug 30 · 03:35O. Melashenko49131312113M. Marchuk4515111091
WAug 22 · 22:05O. Melashenko351111133M. Marchuk2467110
WAug 1 · 21:35O. Melashenko42311116113M. Marchuk4011661162
WJul 26 · 01:35O. Melashenko43111110113M. Marchuk30961231
WJul 18 · 21:05O. Melashenko3911116113M. Marchuk36991171
WJul 12 · 03:35O. Melashenko551311911113M. Marchuk4515711752
WJul 5 · 03:35O. Melashenko521091111113M. Marchuk4112119542
LJun 21 · 03:35O. Melashenko185760M. Marchuk331111113
LJun 14 · 02:35O. Melashenko4358111182M. Marchuk48111169113
O. Melashenko10
LSep 13 · 24:35K. Hrynenko1.6111117113O. Melashenko2.20551171LSep 12 · 22:35V. Lobas1.361411113O. Melashenko3.0012870LSep 12 · 21:35O. Gomilko1.831111113O. Melashenko1.836770WSep 12 · 03:35D. Derevynskyi1.571211138102O. Melashenko2.251491111123LSep 12 · 02:35O. Gomilko1.8091111113O. Melashenko1.91113771LSep 12 · 01:05K. Hrynenko1.6161111113O. Melashenko2.20118241LSep 11 · 23:05V. Lobas1.501111113O. Melashenko2.505440LSep 11 · 21:05Y. Krol1.301111153O. Melashenko3.4079130LSep 9 · 19:25S. Khandetskyi1.831111113O. Melashenko1.838950LSep 9 · 18:25O. Melashenko1.5711711782V. Kobets2.25811611113
M. Marchuk10
LSep 13 · 03:35K. Hrynenko1.671111113M. Marchuk2.109830LSep 13 · 01:05O. Gomilko1.8311911113M. Marchuk1.83811151WSep 12 · 23:05Y. Krol1.801161061M. Marchuk1.9161112113LSep 12 · 21:05V. Lobas1.3612117113M. Marchuk3.001061131LSep 6 · 03:35K. Hrynenko1.7311412113M. Marchuk2.005111061LSep 6 · 02:35O. Melashenko1.6781111113M. Marchuk2.10116771LSep 6 · 01:05O. Gomilko1.7311911113M. Marchuk2.00811451WSep 5 · 23:05Y. Krol1.831133111M. Marchuk1.8331111133LSep 5 · 21:05V. Lobas1.361111113M. Marchuk3.009970LAug 30 · 03:35O. Melashenko1.67131312113M. Marchuk2.1015111091
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