TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13127510
Played Sep 14Finished
Vladimir Postelt
Home
1.65
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
111115114––––
Jiri Plachy
Away
2.07
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:04 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVladimir Postelt to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVladimir Postelt above · Jiri Plachy below
Set 1 · 11-1
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-4
Point 43 set 3, 11-4 — our read held Vladimir Postelt at 54.0%
43 points played in total.
H2H Vladimir Postelt 53–36 Jiri Plachy Jiri Plachy has won 36 of their 89 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Postelt beat Plachy 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 03:04What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.65 (56%)
Postelt
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
53-36 in 89
Postelt
Correct
gap of 17 in 89, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Postelt 1501 vs Plachy 1425
Postelt
Correct
both rated, 76 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Postelt 60% vs Plachy 80%
Plachy
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Postelt 60% vs Plachy 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Postelt -1 · Plachy +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Postelt) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Plachy form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPostelt 1.65 / Plachy 2.07
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Postelt)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13127510
Postelt1.65
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite62% won 117 of 189
Up 2–0, closes it97% 57 of 59
Up 1–0, closes it86% 91 of 106
Plachy2.07
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog41% won 146 of 356
Down 0–1, comes back21% 43 of 202
Down 0–2, comes back5% 6 of 111
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePostelt9wins
AwayPlachy1wins
2 of 10 to a deciderPostelt leads 9–1, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePostelt100%8 of 8
AwayPlachyn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Postelt8Plachy2n = 10Postelt took 8 of 10
S2Postelt7Plachy3n = 10Postelt took 7 of 10
S3Postelt5Plachy5n = 10split evenly
S4Postelt5Plachy1n = 6Postelt took 5 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPosteltPlachyPostelt − PlachyBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match37.928.9+9.0per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPosteltPlachyBasisWin rate · lifetime430 / 815 vs 742 / 159552.8%46.5%430 / 815 vs 742 / 1595Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.537.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PosteltPostelt 1.65/Plachy 2.07
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56%
Postelt · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Postelt won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 29 · 23:30V. Postelt351113113J. Plachy2231180
WAug 26 · 01:00V. Postelt491161011113J. Plachy3591112302
WAug 19 · 12:00V. Postelt3911116113J. Plachy27461161
WAug 18 · 12:00V. Postelt331111113J. Plachy183870
LAug 13 · 12:30V. Postelt268990J. Plachy331111113
WAug 12 · 24:00V. Postelt3811115113J. Plachy35971181
WAug 10 · 02:00V. Postelt331111113J. Plachy226970
WAug 9 · 02:30V. Postelt4211911113J. Plachy29711561
WJul 17 · 24:00V. Postelt3961111113J. Plachy26115371
WJul 12 · 18:30V. Postelt45121156113J. Plachy42105111152
V. Postelt10
LSep 14 · 02:30V. Postelt1.3687111182J. Dedek3.00111144113WSep 14 · 01:30P. Fojt2.759680V. Postelt1.401111113WSep 14 · 24:00V. Postelt1.6111415163J. Plachy2.2011113141WSep 13 · 23:00J. Prokupek1.911186101V. Postelt1.8051111123LSep 10 · 13:30T. Vinter1.601111113V. Postelt2.206870WSep 10 · 12:30M. Kolar2.0010750V. Postelt1.731211113WSep 10 · 11:30V. Postelt1.501111113J. Dedek2.508470LSep 10 · 10:30T. Vinter1.731111113V. Postelt2.009860WSep 9 · 02:00R. Pavelka2.2011981172V. Postelt1.61711119113LSep 9 · 24:30V. Postelt2.00101190J. Trefny1.731213113
J. Plachy10
WSep 14 · 02:00J. Plachy1.8381111113J. Prokupek1.83114611WSep 14 · 01:00J. Plachy1.671111113J. Dedek2.104560LSep 14 · 24:00V. Postelt1.6111415163J. Plachy2.2011113141WSep 13 · 22:30P. Fojt1.831391471J. Plachy1.83111116113WSep 12 · 02:00J. Plachy1.5711118113Y. Holovatiuk2.25471141LSep 12 · 01:00J. Plachy1.8051461192J. Dedek1.911112115113LSep 12 · 24:00T. Janata1.501112113J. Plachy2.5081090LSep 11 · 22:30T. Dousa1.831112113J. Plachy1.8371090LSep 11 · 20:58T. Dousa2.1091112113J. Plachy1.671191081WSep 11 · 20:30J. Prokupek1.911112951J. Plachy1.8091411113
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