TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13126750
Played Sep 14Finished
Oleh Bindas
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911511911––––
Ivan Romaniak
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:56 and never touched — 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timeOleh Bindas to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleh Bindas above · Ivan Romaniak below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 56 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Oleh Bindas at 65.7%
56 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Bindas 25–13 Ivan Romaniak Ivan Romaniak has won 13 of their 38 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:56What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Bindas
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
25-13 in 38
Bindas
Wrong
gap of 12 in 38, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bindas 1761 vs Romaniak 1653
Bindas
Wrong
both rated, 108 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bindas 40% vs Romaniak 20%
Bindas
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bindas 40% vs Romaniak 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Bindas -1 · Romaniak -4
Romaniak
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Bindas)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Romaniak form (20%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBindas 1.44 / Romaniak 2.63
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Bindas)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13126750
Bindas1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite65% won 137 of 211
Up 2–0, closes it96% 76 of 79
Up 1–0, closes it80% 106 of 133
Romaniak2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 112 of 274
Down 0–1, comes back27% 45 of 165
Down 0–2, comes back11% 11 of 101
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBindas7wins
AwayRomaniak3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderBindas leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBindas71.4%5 of 7
AwayRomaniak33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bindas7Romaniak3n = 10Bindas took 7 of 10
S2Bindas7Romaniak3n = 10Bindas took 7 of 10
S3Bindas5Romaniak5n = 10split evenly
S4Bindas6Romaniak1n = 7Bindas took 6 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBindasRomaniakB − RBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.733.1+5.6per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBindasRomaniakBasisWin rate · lifetime462 / 727 vs 241 / 53263.6%45.3%462 / 727 vs 241 / 532Avg sets wonper match2.31.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.836.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BindasBindas 1.44/Romaniak 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
65.7%
Bindas · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Romaniak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 4 · 09:05O. Bindas3912115113I. Romaniak391091191
WJul 3 · 17:35O. Bindas43101111113I. Romaniak35128781
LJun 30 · 08:05O. Bindas216960I. Romaniak331111113
WJun 29 · 12:05O. Bindas331111113I. Romaniak169520
WJun 27 · 11:05O. Bindas4012611113I. Romaniak351011681
WJun 23 · 07:55O. Bindas3911116113I. Romaniak31391181
WJun 22 · 12:25O. Bindas331111113I. Romaniak155280
LJun 16 · 05:05O. Bindas49141161172I. Romaniak521251113113
WJun 15 · 16:05O. Bindas4071111113I. Romaniak26112851
LJun 10 · 05:05O. Bindas501110101182I. Romaniak49512129113
O. Bindas10
LSep 14 · 12:05O. Bindas1.3311440D. Shcherbak3.251311113WSep 14 · 02:30D. Pesternikov1.83671181O. Bindas1.8311115113LSep 14 · 01:30R. Lazebnyi2.25951111113O. Bindas1.5711114682LSep 14 · 24:00I. Kozachuk2.501111113O. Bindas1.509560WSep 13 · 22:00D. Shcherbak3.00114120O. Bindas1.361311143LSep 13 · 20:00S. Rak3.4071111113O. Bindas1.30117681WJul 6 · 02:30D. Pesternikov2.201146131O. Bindas1.6171111153LJul 6 · 01:30D. Shcherbak3.251111113O. Bindas1.339550WJul 6 · 24:00I. Kozachuk2.50119571O. Bindas1.5031111113LJul 5 · 22:00R. Haiseniuk5.50112811113O. Bindas1.1381111452
I. Romaniak10
LSep 14 · 12:35I. Kozachuk1.671112143I. Romaniak2.10410120LSep 12 · 11:05I. Romaniak1.571211681R. Haiseniuk2.25101311113LSep 12 · 09:05V. Plishylo2.00781111113I. Romaniak1.7311111482LSep 12 · 08:05I. Romaniak1.836790R. Lazebnyi1.831111113WSep 12 · 07:05Y. Kravets2.251112881I. Romaniak1.5761411113LSep 12 · 05:35I. Romaniak1.8012690N. Kovalchuk1.911411113WSep 11 · 18:35R. Haiseniuk2.2029111162I. Romaniak1.6111119673WSep 11 · 17:35M. Smyrnov1.9111511782I. Romaniak1.80911511113WSep 11 · 16:05R. Lazebnyi1.8315811652I. Romaniak1.831311311113LSep 11 · 14:05Y. Kravets2.50611116113I. Romaniak1.5011591172
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