TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup WomenMatch #13126690
Played Sep 14Finished
Viktoria Kurtenko
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
112119911111311
Ulana Dronova
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:38 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeUlana Dronova to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingViktoria Kurtenko above · Ulana Dronova below
Set 1 · 11-2
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 1-11
Set 5 · 3-11
Point 79 set 5, 3-11 — our read held Ulana Dronova at 54.9%
79 points played in total.
H2H Viktoria Kurtenko 5–5 Ulana Dronova Dead even across their 10 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickContradict
Sealed 21:38What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Dronova
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-5 in 10
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kurtenko 1518 vs Dronova 1550
Dronova
Correct
both rated, 32 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kurtenko 20% vs Dronova 60%
Dronova
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kurtenko 40% vs Dronova 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kurtenko -4 · Dronova +1
Kurtenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as Contradict.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Dronova) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kurtenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKurtenko 2.25 / Dronova 1.57
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Dronova)-1.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup Women · #13126690
Kurtenko2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog28% won 11 of 39
Down 0–1, comes back23% 5 of 22
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 16
Dronova1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite50% won 20 of 40
Up 2–0, closes it85% 11 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it58% 15 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKurtenko5wins
AwayDronova5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKurtenkon = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayDronova50%4 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kurtenko2Dronova8n = 10Dronova took 8 of 10
S2Kurtenko5Dronova5n = 10split evenly
S3Kurtenko5Dronova5n = 10split evenly
S4Kurtenko5Dronova3n = 8Kurtenko took 5 of 8
S5Kurtenko2Dronova1n = 3Kurtenko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKurtenkoDronovaK − DBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match36.039.6−3.6per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKurtenkoDronovaBasisWin rate · lifetime97 / 189 vs 41 / 9551.3%43.2%97 / 189 vs 41 / 95Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.035.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KurtenkoKurtenko 2.25/Dronova 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.1%
Dronova · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Dronova won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 13 · 13:10V. Kurtenko4181111113U. Dronova31119381
LAug 20 · 15:40V. Kurtenko31116951U. Dronova4071111113
LJul 16 · 07:00V. Kurtenko83410U. Dronova331111113
WApr 7 · 05:30V. Kurtenko551111139113U. Dronova5079151182
WApr 6 · 11:40V. Kurtenko44111111113U. Dronova31132791
WFeb 26 · 08:35V. Kurtenko4281111123U. Dronova371197101
WJun 1 · 04:30V. Kurtenko47841212113U. Dronova511111101092
LMay 18 · 04:30V. Kurtenko1532100U. Dronova341111123
LMay 11 · 09:29V. Kurtenko32761181U. Dronova4011117113
LMay 11 · 04:30V. Kurtenko4571171192U. Dronova49117119113
V. Kurtenko10
LSep 14 · 10:30P. Pashchenko1.7311137113V. Kurtenko2.005111161LSep 14 · 08:30V. Kurtenko3.2511119662A. Rzhevska1.33991111113LSep 14 · 07:00V. Kurtenko1.289131161Y. Mykhailyk3.5011155113LSep 14 · 05:00V. Kurtenko1.67113951S. Yureneva2.1041111113LSep 13 · 17:10V. Kurtenko1.83811411P. Pashchenko1.8311811103WSep 13 · 15:10S. Yureneva2.00117781V. Kurtenko1.7361111113LSep 13 · 14:10V. Kurtenko3.00119591A. Rzhevska1.3671111103WSep 13 · 13:10U. Dronova1.40119381V. Kurtenko2.7581111113LSep 13 · 11:40V. Kurtenko1.8311811592A. Kurtenko1.83911911113WSep 1 · 10:30A. Rzhevska1.28109100V. Kurtenko3.501211123
U. Dronova10
WSep 14 · 07:30P. Pashchenko1.674850U. Dronova2.101111113LSep 14 · 06:30U. Dronova2.50111081172A. Rzhevska1.50412118113WSep 14 · 05:30Y. Mykhailyk3.2511112111U. Dronova1.3313811133WSep 13 · 16:40S. Yureneva3.00912971U. Dronova1.36111011113LSep 13 · 15:40U. Dronova1.834460A. Kurtenko1.83111162LSep 13 · 14:40U. Dronova1.91513971P. Pashchenko1.80111111113LSep 13 · 13:10U. Dronova1.40119381V. Kurtenko2.7581111113LSep 13 · 11:10U. Dronova2.10512871A. Rzhevska1.67111011113WAug 21 · 09:00Y. Mykhailyk3.40136811102U. Dronova1.301111115123LAug 21 · 07:30U. Dronova1.801250A. Rzhevska1.911111113
Upcoming Matches
V. Kurtenko
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U. Dronova
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