TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup WomenMatch #13126692
Played Sep 14Finished
Yana Mykhailyk
Home
3.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
11131182111113––
Ulana Dronova
Away
1.33
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:43 and never touched — 71.3% is still 71.3%
Graded at full timeUlana Dronova to win
71.3%
71.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingYana Mykhailyk above · Ulana Dronova below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 2-11
Set 4 · 11-13
Point 80 set 4, 11-13 — our read held Ulana Dronova at 71.3%
80 points played in total.
H2H Yana Mykhailyk 2–3 Ulana Dronova Yana Mykhailyk has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:43What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Dronova
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-3 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mykhailyk 1451 vs Dronova 1533
Dronova
Correct
both rated, 81 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mykhailyk 80% vs Dronova 20%
Mykhailyk
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mykhailyk 60% vs Dronova 20%
Mykhailyk
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mykhailyk -1 · Dronova +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Dronova)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dronova form (20%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMykhailyk 3.25 / Dronova 1.33
Signal prob.29% / 71%
Edge (Dronova)+0.4pp
Setka Cup Women · #13126692
Mykhailyk3.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog35% won 48 of 138
Down 0–1, comes back20% 17 of 87
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 48
Dronova1.33
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite50% won 20 of 40
Up 2–0, closes it85% 11 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it58% 15 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeMykhailyk2wins
AwayDronova3wins
2 of 5 to a deciderDronova leads 3–2, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMykhailykn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayDronova66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mykhailyk2Dronova3n = 5Dronova took 3 of 5
S2Mykhailyk3Dronova2n = 5Mykhailyk took 3 of 5
S3Mykhailyk3Dronova2n = 5Mykhailyk took 3 of 5
S4Mykhailyk2Dronova1n = 3Mykhailyk took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away240%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricMykhailykDronovaM − DBasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match35.838.0−2.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMykhailykDronovaBasisWin rate · lifetime240 / 502 vs 41 / 9547.8%43.2%240 / 502 vs 41 / 95Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.635.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DronovaMykhailyk 3.25/Dronova 1.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
71.3%
Dronova · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Dronova won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LAug 21 · 09:00Y. Mykhailyk48136811102U. Dronova501111115123
LJul 16 · 08:00Y. Mykhailyk157530U. Dronova331111113
LJul 15 · 16:40Y. Mykhailyk4151311662U. Dronova521111811113
WMay 21 · 06:00Y. Mykhailyk331111113U. Dronova228860
WMay 20 · 13:40Y. Mykhailyk4291111113U. Dronova33118951
Y. Mykhailyk10
LSep 6 · 16:09Y. Mykhailyk2.201011751A. Rzhevska1.6112211113WSep 6 · 14:40Y. Mykhailyk1.221171111113A. Plashchynska4.0013117842WSep 6 · 13:40A. Rzhevska1.50811481Y. Mykhailyk2.5011211113WSep 6 · 12:40O. Melnik3.00561181Y. Mykhailyk1.3611118113WSep 6 · 11:10O. Kolbasenko1.3685110Y. Mykhailyk3.001111133WSep 1 · 11:00Y. Mykhailyk1.8011411113P. Pashchenko1.91811781LSep 1 · 09:00A. Rzhevska1.50119114113Y. Mykhailyk2.5071141192WSep 1 · 08:00Y. Mykhailyk1.251111113A. Plashchynska3.757870LSep 1 · 07:00V. Kurtenko1.301111113Y. Mykhailyk3.405760LSep 1 · 05:30Y. Mykhailyk3.00811651S. Yureneva1.3611711113
U. Dronova10
WSep 13 · 16:40S. Yureneva3.00912971U. Dronova1.36111011113LSep 13 · 15:40U. Dronova1.834460A. Kurtenko1.83111162LSep 13 · 14:40U. Dronova1.91513971P. Pashchenko1.80111111113LSep 13 · 13:10U. Dronova1.40119381V. Kurtenko2.7581111113LSep 13 · 11:10U. Dronova2.10512871A. Rzhevska1.67111011113WAug 21 · 09:00Y. Mykhailyk3.40136811102U. Dronova1.301111115123LAug 21 · 07:30U. Dronova1.801250A. Rzhevska1.911111113LAug 21 · 06:00U. Dronova1.30118111382S. Yureneva3.40611715113LAug 21 · 04:30U. Dronova1.576131171P. Pashchenko2.2511157113LAug 20 · 17:40U. Dronova1.7311114142A. Rzhevska2.00431111113
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