TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13126542
Played Sep 14Finished
Oleh Bindas
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
811117811118118
Denys Pesternikov
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:07 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeOleh Bindas to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleh Bindas above · Denys Pesternikov below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 94 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Oleh Bindas at 54.1%
94 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Bindas 133–76 Denys Pesternikov Denys Pesternikov has won 76 of their 209 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:07What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Pesternikov
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
133-76 in 209
Bindas
Correct
gap of 57 in 209, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bindas 1732 vs Pesternikov 1905
Pesternikov
Wrong
both rated, 173 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bindas 20% vs Pesternikov 40%
Pesternikov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bindas 30% vs Pesternikov 60%
Pesternikov
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Bindas -3 · Pesternikov -1
Bindas
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Pesternikov) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pesternikov form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBindas 1.91 / Pesternikov 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Pesternikov)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13126542
Bindas1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Pesternikov1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite69% won 216 of 314
Up 2–0, closes it95% 122 of 129
Up 1–0, closes it85% 174 of 205
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBindas5wins
AwayPesternikov5wins
Level at 5–5.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBindas60%3 of 5
AwayPesternikov60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bindas5Pesternikov5n = 10split evenly
S2Bindas5Pesternikov5n = 10split evenly
S3Bindas4Pesternikov6n = 10Pesternikov took 6 of 10
S4Bindas4Pesternikov3n = 7Bindas took 4 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricBindasPesternikovB − PBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.734.5+2.2per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBindasPesternikovBasisWin rate · lifetime462 / 729 vs 590 / 110463.4%53.4%462 / 729 vs 590 / 1104Avg sets wonper match2.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.737.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PesternikovBindas 1.91/Pesternikov 1.80
Miss
What we said
54%
Pesternikov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Bindas won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 14 · 02:30O. Bindas3811115113D. Pesternikov32671181
WJul 6 · 02:30O. Bindas4471111153D. Pesternikov341146131
LJul 4 · 07:05O. Bindas229670D. Pesternikov331111113
WJun 30 · 09:05O. Bindas341112113D. Pesternikov2671090
WJun 29 · 16:35O. Bindas4291111113D. Pesternikov31115961
LJun 27 · 08:05O. Bindas371181081D. Pesternikov4171112113
LJun 23 · 05:25O. Bindas399118111D. Pesternikov4211711133
WJun 20 · 09:35O. Bindas47111312113D. Pesternikov303151021
LJun 15 · 18:05O. Bindas391179121D. Pesternikov4151111143
LJun 13 · 05:35O. Bindas25510100D. Pesternikov351112123
O. Bindas10
LSep 14 · 15:05O. Bindas1.332480S. Rak3.251111113LSep 14 · 13:35O. Bindas1.449590I. Romaniak2.631111113LSep 14 · 12:05O. Bindas1.3311440D. Shcherbak3.251311113WSep 14 · 02:30D. Pesternikov1.83671181O. Bindas1.8311115113LSep 14 · 01:30R. Lazebnyi2.25951111113O. Bindas1.5711114682LSep 14 · 24:00I. Kozachuk2.501111113O. Bindas1.509560WSep 13 · 22:00D. Shcherbak3.00114120O. Bindas1.361311143LSep 13 · 20:00S. Rak3.4071111113O. Bindas1.30117681WJul 6 · 02:30D. Pesternikov2.201146131O. Bindas1.6171111153LJul 6 · 01:30D. Shcherbak3.251111113O. Bindas1.339550
D. Pesternikov10
LSep 14 · 15:35D. Pesternikov1.3611791192I. Romaniak3.00711114113WSep 14 · 14:35I. Kozachuk2.00611691D. Pesternikov1.7311611113WSep 14 · 13:05D. Pesternikov1.441111113S. Rak2.636510LSep 14 · 02:30D. Pesternikov1.83671181O. Bindas1.8311115113LSep 14 · 24:30S. Rak2.50111711113D. Pesternikov1.5011611892WSep 13 · 23:30D. Pesternikov1.361111113R. Lazebnyi3.006390WSep 13 · 22:30I. Kozachuk2.2012960D. Pesternikov1.611411113WSep 13 · 21:00D. Pesternikov1.281111113D. Shcherbak3.506780LSep 10 · 17:24B. Kohut1.6711117113D. Pesternikov2.10791191LJul 6 · 02:30D. Pesternikov2.201146131O. Bindas1.6171111153
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