TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13126403
Played Sep 14Finished
Denys Pesternikov
Home
1.36
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
117711911114911
Ivan Romaniak
Away
3.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:31 and never touched — 68.1% is still 68.1%
Graded at full timeDenys Pesternikov to win
68.1%
68.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDenys Pesternikov above · Ivan Romaniak below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-4
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 91 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Denys Pesternikov at 68.1%
91 points played in total.
H2H Denys Pesternikov 41–32 Ivan Romaniak Ivan Romaniak has won 32 of their 73 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:31What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Pesternikov
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
41-32 in 73
Pesternikov
Wrong
gap of 9 in 73, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pesternikov 1924 vs Romaniak 1672
Pesternikov
Wrong
both rated, 252 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pesternikov 60% vs Romaniak 20%
Pesternikov
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pesternikov 60% vs Romaniak 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pesternikov +2 · Romaniak +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Pesternikov) · live re-read · sealed at 68% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Romaniak form (20%) is below what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPesternikov 1.36 / Romaniak 3.00
Signal prob.72% / 28%
Edge (Pesternikov)+3.6pp
Setka Cup · #13126403
Pesternikov1.36
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite69% won 216 of 314
Up 2–0, closes it95% 122 of 129
Up 1–0, closes it85% 174 of 205
Romaniak3.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 112 of 274
Down 0–1, comes back27% 45 of 165
Down 0–2, comes back11% 11 of 101
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePesternikov6wins
AwayRomaniak4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderPesternikov leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePesternikov71.4%5 of 7
AwayRomaniak66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pesternikov7Romaniak3n = 10Pesternikov took 7 of 10
S2Pesternikov8Romaniak2n = 10Pesternikov took 8 of 10
S3Pesternikov6Romaniak4n = 10Pesternikov took 6 of 10
S4Pesternikov2Romaniak2n = 4split evenly
S5Pesternikov1Romaniak3n = 4Romaniak took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPesternikovRomaniakP − RBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.230.6+7.6per matchSweeps51+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPesternikovRomaniakBasisWin rate · lifetime590 / 1103 vs 242 / 53353.5%45.4%590 / 1103 vs 242 / 533Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.636.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PesternikovPesternikov 1.36/Romaniak 3.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
72.4%
Pesternikov · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Romaniak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 8 · 08:55D. Pesternikov49111110982I. Romaniak43721211113
WSep 7 · 17:55D. Pesternikov341112113I. Romaniak2271050
WSep 6 · 23:45D. Pesternikov361411113I. Romaniak2812790
LSep 1 · 05:25D. Pesternikov28108100I. Romaniak351211123
WAug 31 · 18:25D. Pesternikov331111113I. Romaniak185580
WAug 27 · 21:30D. Pesternikov48961111113I. Romaniak4311119392
WAug 25 · 08:55D. Pesternikov331111113I. Romaniak158430
WAug 24 · 15:25D. Pesternikov331111113I. Romaniak154920
LAug 21 · 15:35D. Pesternikov45111151082I. Romaniak42531112113
LAug 20 · 22:30D. Pesternikov4391191132I. Romaniak45115117113
D. Pesternikov10
LSep 14 · 16:35O. Bindas1.91811811113D. Pesternikov1.8011711882WSep 14 · 14:35I. Kozachuk2.00611691D. Pesternikov1.7311611113WSep 14 · 13:05D. Pesternikov1.441111113S. Rak2.636510LSep 14 · 02:30D. Pesternikov1.83671181O. Bindas1.8311115113LSep 14 · 24:30S. Rak2.50111711113D. Pesternikov1.5011611892WSep 13 · 23:30D. Pesternikov1.361111113R. Lazebnyi3.006390WSep 13 · 22:30I. Kozachuk2.2012960D. Pesternikov1.611411113WSep 13 · 21:00D. Pesternikov1.281111113D. Shcherbak3.506780LSep 10 · 17:24B. Kohut1.6711117113D. Pesternikov2.10791191WSep 10 · 16:25D. Pesternikov2.251111113O. Bondarchuk1.576640
I. Romaniak10
WSep 14 · 13:35O. Bindas1.449590I. Romaniak2.631111113LSep 14 · 12:35I. Kozachuk1.671112143I. Romaniak2.10410120LSep 12 · 11:05I. Romaniak1.571211681R. Haiseniuk2.25101311113LSep 12 · 09:05V. Plishylo2.00781111113I. Romaniak1.7311111482LSep 12 · 08:05I. Romaniak1.836790R. Lazebnyi1.831111113WSep 12 · 07:05Y. Kravets2.251112881I. Romaniak1.5761411113LSep 12 · 05:35I. Romaniak1.8012690N. Kovalchuk1.911411113WSep 11 · 18:35R. Haiseniuk2.2029111162I. Romaniak1.6111119673WSep 11 · 17:35M. Smyrnov1.9111511782I. Romaniak1.80911511113WSep 11 · 16:05R. Lazebnyi1.8315811652I. Romaniak1.831311311113
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