TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13126133
Played Sep 14Finished
Maksym Hubenko
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
117114911711118
Oleksandr Syksa
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:12 and never touched — 62.4% is still 62.4%
Graded at full timeMaksym Hubenko to win
62.4%
62.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMaksym Hubenko above · Oleksandr Syksa below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 90 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Maksym Hubenko at 62.4%
90 points played in total.
H2H Maksym Hubenko 111–71 Oleksandr Syksa Oleksandr Syksa has won 71 of their 182 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 16h before this match
Hubenko beat Syksa 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:12What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Hubenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
111-71 in 182
Hubenko
Correct
gap of 40 in 182, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hubenko 1604 vs Syksa 1608
Syksa
Wrong
both rated, 3 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hubenko 40% vs Syksa 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hubenko 30% vs Syksa 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Hubenko -2 · Syksa -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Hubenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hubenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHubenko 1.53 / Syksa 2.38
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Hubenko)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13126133
Hubenko1.53
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite73% won 235 of 320
Up 2–0, closes it94% 117 of 125
Up 1–0, closes it83% 165 of 198
Syksa2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog26% won 55 of 213
Down 0–1, comes back14% 20 of 146
Down 0–2, comes back3% 3 of 102
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHubenko8wins
AwaySyksa2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderHubenko leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHubenko85.7%6 of 7
AwaySyksa33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hubenko7Syksa3n = 10Hubenko took 7 of 10
S2Hubenko5Syksa5n = 10split evenly
S3Hubenko7Syksa3n = 10Hubenko took 7 of 10
S4Hubenko5Syksa2n = 7Hubenko took 5 of 7
S5Hubenko2Syksa1n = 3Hubenko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricHubenkoSyksaH − SBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match41.534.9+6.6per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHubenkoSyksaBasisWin rate · lifetime553 / 1044 vs 578 / 110353%52.4%553 / 1044 vs 578 / 1103Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.037.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HubenkoHubenko 1.53/Syksa 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.4%
Hubenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Hubenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 9 · 05:00M. Hubenko177640O. Syksa331111113
WSep 6 · 05:00M. Hubenko4411911133O. Syksa336115111
WSep 4 · 10:30M. Hubenko3911611113O. Syksa32611691
LSep 2 · 05:00M. Hubenko541212101192O. Syksa561014129113
WAug 31 · 05:30M. Hubenko47711117113O. Syksa4011861142
WAug 28 · 11:00M. Hubenko45121111113O. Syksa311051331
WAug 26 · 11:30M. Hubenko351113113O. Syksa2581160
WAug 21 · 08:30M. Hubenko331111113O. Syksa135440
WAug 20 · 11:30M. Hubenko50911118113O. Syksa4211571182
WAug 17 · 10:30M. Hubenko5118811143O. Syksa4416115121
M. Hubenko10
LSep 13 · 17:04S. Aristarkhov1.8311911113M. Hubenko1.83411971LSep 13 · 16:00M. Hubenko1.8381181172S. Aristarkhov1.83116115113WSep 13 · 15:00D. Prylepa2.50341161M. Hubenko1.501111862LSep 13 · 14:00A. Vasylets2.5011611793M. Hubenko1.5051161172WSep 13 · 12:30O. Syksa2.63137413102M. Hubenko1.4411111111113LSep 11 · 16:30M. Hubenko2.753220R. Ivanov1.401111113LSep 11 · 15:30M. Hubenko4.00811691I. Fedoryshyn1.2211911113LSep 11 · 14:00M. Hubenko3.2591280A. Kasyanov1.331114113LSep 11 · 13:00M. Hubenko2.755790S. Chuhai1.401111113WSep 10 · 17:29M. Hubenko2.1513163143A. Lushchyk1.62111411121
O. Syksa10
LSep 13 · 17:35O. Syksa1.83171151A. Vasylets1.8311119113LSep 13 · 15:30A. Vasylets1.911111811113O. Syksa1.8061311332WSep 13 · 14:30O. Syksa2.0011112113S. Aristarkhov1.73981191WSep 13 · 13:30D. Prylepa2.63861151O. Syksa1.4411117113LSep 13 · 12:30O. Syksa2.63137413102M. Hubenko1.4411111111113LSep 11 · 11:00D. Kuzmenko2.1091111133O. Syksa1.671159111WSep 11 · 10:00O. Lyman4.501196101O. Syksa1.1771111123WSep 11 · 08:30S. Maliuk2.101281111102O. Syksa1.671011713123LSep 11 · 06:30O. Kurylenko2.001381113163O. Syksa1.731111315142LSep 11 · 04:30O. Ziakun2.2011117113O. Syksa1.61851191
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