TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13123441
Played Sep 13Finished
Adam Duch
Home
1.34
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11812101012119––
Krzysztof Zapala
Away
2.85
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:22 and never touched — 62.3% is still 62.3%
Graded at full timeAdam Duch to win
62.3%
62.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
83 points played in total.
Set by set
11812101012119––
H2H Adam Duch 53–32 Krzysztof Zapala Krzysztof Zapala has won 32 of their 85 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:22What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.34 (68%)
Duch
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
53-32 in 85
Duch
Correct
gap of 21 in 85, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Duch 1638 vs Zapala 1457
Duch
Correct
both rated, 180 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Duch 40% vs Zapala 20%
Duch
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Duch 50% vs Zapala 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Duch -1 · Zapala -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Duch) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zapala form (20%) is below what odds imply (35%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDuch 1.34 / Zapala 2.85
Signal prob.71% / 29%
Edge (Duch)+3.2pp
TT Cup · #13123441
Duch1.34
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 121 of 197
Up 2–0, closes it94% 66 of 70
Up 1–0, closes it77% 85 of 110
Zapala2.85
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog39% won 79 of 204
Down 0–1, comes back22% 22 of 98
Down 0–2, comes back8% 4 of 53
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDuch6wins
AwayZapala4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderDuch leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDuchn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayZapala37.5%3 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Duch2Zapala8n = 10Zapala took 8 of 10
S2Duch7Zapala3n = 10Duch took 7 of 10
S3Duch5Zapala5n = 10split evenly
S4Duch6Zapala3n = 9Duch took 6 of 9
S5Duch2Zapala1n = 3Duch took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDuchZapalaD − ZBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match41.640.4+1.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDuchZapalaBasisWin rate · lifetime452 / 760 vs 324 / 72359.5%44.8%452 / 760 vs 324 / 723Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.838.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DuchDuch 1.34/Zapala 2.85
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
71.2%
Duch · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Duch won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 13 · 07:05A. Duch44111210113K. Zapala398101291
LSep 12 · 18:05A. Duch375111291K. Zapala4211614113
WSep 11 · 22:00A. Duch4071111113K. Zapala32118581
LSep 11 · 17:30A. Duch376811121K. Zapala4111115143
WSep 10 · 16:30A. Duch50711116153K. Zapala48118511132
WSep 6 · 06:35A. Duch48141211113K. Zapala361610281
WSep 5 · 17:05A. Duch527111211113K. Zapala4711914852
LAug 8 · 06:35A. Duch237880K. Zapala331111113
WAug 7 · 22:30A. Duch46101311123K. Zapala3912116101
LAug 7 · 16:00A. Duch3911951132K. Zapala47911115113
A. Duch10
LSep 13 · 06:05A. Duch1.9013690M. Szymanski1.801511113WSep 12 · 20:45B. Bartosz2.759870A. Duch1.401111113LSep 12 · 18:05K. Zapala2.8011614113A. Duch1.365111291LSep 12 · 17:35A. Duch1.3810812131B. Bartosz2.85121110153WSep 12 · 16:35M. Szymanski1.83911111272A. Duch1.81117714113WSep 12 · 15:35A. Duch1.831111113K. Guzy1.809650WSep 11 · 22:00K. Zapala2.45118581A. Duch1.5071111113WSep 11 · 21:00M. Szymanski1.8741311582A. Duch1.831111311113LSep 11 · 19:30A. Duch1.864480K. Guzy1.781111113LSep 11 · 17:30K. Zapala2.3911115143A. Duch1.476811121
K. Zapala10
LSep 13 · 06:35B. Bartosz2.041113113K. Zapala1.6451160LSep 12 · 19:05K. Zapala2.101178101M. Szymanski1.6081111123WSep 12 · 18:05K. Zapala2.8011614113A. Duch1.365111291LSep 12 · 17:05K. Zapala2.00118912102K. Guzy1.727111110123LSep 12 · 16:05K. Zapala1.55610110B. Bartosz2.301112133LSep 11 · 22:00K. Zapala2.45118581A. Duch1.5071111113LSep 11 · 20:30K. Zapala2.55141261182K. Guzy1.411214117113WSep 11 · 18:30T. Stachera2.00611971K. Zapala1.7111811113WSep 11 · 17:30K. Zapala2.3911115143A. Duch1.476811121WSep 11 · 16:30P. Odelski1.508970K. Zapala2.401111113
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.