TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13120205
Played Sep 13Finished
Robin Pacha
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1161113117117––
Lukas Tonar
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:18 and never touched — 64.5% is still 64.5%
Graded at full timeRobin Pacha to win
64.5%
64.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRobin Pacha above · Lukas Tonar below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 77 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Robin Pacha at 64.5%
77 points played in total.
H2H Robin Pacha 4–0 Lukas Tonar Lukas Tonar has won 0 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:18What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Pacha
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-0 in 4
Pacha
Correct
gap of 4 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pacha 1572 vs Tonar 1571
Pacha
Correct
both rated, 2 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pacha 40% vs Tonar 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pacha 40% vs Tonar 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pacha -3 · Tonar -1
Pacha
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Pacha)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pacha form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPacha 1.44 / Tonar 2.63
Signal prob.65% / 36%
Edge (Pacha)-0.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13120205
Pacha1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite69% won 46 of 67
Up 2–0, closes it94% 17 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it87% 27 of 31
Tonar2.63
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog45% won 19 of 42
Down 0–1, comes back24% 5 of 21
Down 0–2, comes back13% 2 of 15
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomePacha4wins
AwayTonar0wins
1 of 4 to a deciderPacha leads 4–0, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pacha2Tonar2n = 4split evenly
S2Pacha3Tonar1n = 4Pacha took 3 of 4
S3Pacha3Tonar1n = 4Pacha took 3 of 4
S4Pacha3Tonar1n = 4Pacha took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home375%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricPachaTonarP − TBasisWins40+4in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match46.540.0+6.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPachaTonarBasisWin rate · lifetime179 / 324 vs 126 / 25955.3%48.7%179 / 324 vs 126 / 259Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.236.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PachaPacha 1.44/Tonar 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.5%
Pacha · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Pacha won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WJun 8 · 20:00R. Pacha49111314113L. Tonar4113111251
WMar 22 · 10:30R. Pacha4581111153L. Tonar361193131
WMar 22 · 07:30R. Pacha4111118113L. Tonar34871181
WFeb 1 · 21:00R. Pacha51119118123L. Tonar49911811102
R. Pacha10
WSep 13 · 21:29J. Tazler3.00101211992R. Pacha1.361210811113LSep 13 · 19:00R. Pacha1.73108121192M. Sychra2.001211109113LSep 13 · 18:00J. Tazler2.7511119123R. Pacha1.409911101LSep 5 · 21:28R. Wagner1.611111113R. Pacha2.206780WSep 5 · 20:30R. Pacha1.6711118113D. Hofman2.10551161WSep 5 · 19:00R. Pacha1.671111113K. Schopf2.107580LSep 5 · 18:00R. Wagner1.61111111113R. Pacha2.20613691WAug 29 · 20:59R. Pacha1.5311119113M. Sobisek2.38761191LAug 29 · 20:00R. Pacha1.6711116882M. Sychra2.10761111113WAug 29 · 19:30M. Sobisek2.75155981R. Pacha1.40131111113
L. Tonar10
WSep 13 · 20:59L. Tonar1.6731113113M. Sychra2.101191171LSep 13 · 19:30L. Tonar2.0099111142J. Tazler1.73111176113WSep 13 · 18:30M. Sychra1.831144101L. Tonar1.8371111123LAug 22 · 20:58L. Tonar1.83911111072D. Sidletskyi1.83119412113WAug 22 · 20:30D. Sidletskyi1.6710960L. Tonar2.101211113LAug 22 · 19:30L. Tonar1.7351040D. Hofman2.001112113LAug 22 · 18:30R. Wagner1.441111113L. Tonar2.632680LJul 30 · 21:00L. Tonar1.61981121K. Kapras2.2011115113WJul 30 · 20:30L. Tonar1.57111139113K. Kapras2.2575111192LJul 30 · 19:00L. Tonar1.67511581J. Tazler2.1011411113
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