TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13119657
Played Sep 13Finished
Daniel Priesol
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118111411119––
Zbynek Zientek
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:34 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDaniel Priesol to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDaniel Priesol above · Zbynek Zientek below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-1
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 66 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Daniel Priesol at 54.0%
66 points played in total.
H2H Daniel Priesol 16–15 Zbynek Zientek Zbynek Zientek has won 15 of their 31 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:34What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Priesol
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-15 in 31
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Priesol 1393 vs Zientek 1355
Priesol
Correct
both rated, 38 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Priesol 40% vs Zientek 60%
Zientek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Priesol 70% vs Zientek 50%
Priesol
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Priesol -2 · Zientek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Priesol)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Priesol form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPriesol 1.80 / Zientek 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Priesol)+2.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13119657
Priesol1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite55% won 63 of 115
Up 2–0, closes it91% 30 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it71% 43 of 61
Zientek1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog51% won 84 of 164
Down 0–1, comes back34% 31 of 91
Down 0–2, comes back19% 9 of 47
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePriesol5wins
AwayZientek5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePriesol100%5 of 5
AwayZientek100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Priesol5Zientek5n = 10split evenly
S2Priesol4Zientek6n = 10Zientek took 6 of 10
S3Priesol5Zientek5n = 10split evenly
S4Priesol4Zientek3n = 7Priesol took 4 of 7
S5Priesol2Zientek2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricPriesolZientekP − ZBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.238.1+0.1per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPriesolZientekBasisWin rate · lifetime240 / 464 vs 191 / 38751.7%49.4%240 / 464 vs 191 / 387Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PriesolPriesol 1.80/Zientek 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Priesol · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Priesol won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 1 · 19:30D. Priesol49126119113Z. Zientek46101171172
LJul 26 · 16:30D. Priesol3937111172Z. Zientek46111167113
LJul 26 · 12:30D. Priesol37891191Z. Zientek3811115113
WJul 13 · 21:05D. Priesol47111185123Z. Zientek47961111102
WJul 13 · 19:00D. Priesol4111117123Z. Zientek313711101
LJul 10 · 09:04D. Priesol239860Z. Zientek331111113
WJul 10 · 08:30D. Priesol351311113Z. Zientek2511860
LJul 5 · 07:00D. Priesol51991211102Z. Zientek481111104123
WJun 11 · 12:30D. Priesol43111110113Z. Zientek34961271
LJun 11 · 08:00D. Priesol175930Z. Zientek331111113
D. Priesol10
LSep 12 · 13:30D. Priesol2.2058111122R. Kvasnicka1.61111166113LSep 12 · 12:00R. Kvasnicka1.731111113113D. Priesol2.0015131162WSep 12 · 11:00A. Schneeberger2.501167101D. Priesol1.5051111123WSep 12 · 10:30D. Priesol1.73411116113D. Kolek2.0011641132LSep 11 · 17:30D. Priesol1.52116691J. Peter2.3561111113WSep 11 · 16:30D. Priesol1.57111011113A. Schneeberger2.25912571WSep 11 · 15:00D. Priesol2.001111123J. Peter1.7328100WSep 11 · 14:00P. Kalvar1.737590D. Priesol2.001111113WSep 6 · 09:30D. Tyn1.731211471D. Priesol2.00101311113WSep 6 · 08:00D. Priesol1.7311711113A. Schneeberger2.00411581
Z. Zientek10
WSep 2 · 09:30P. Varecha1.60761271Z. Zientek2.20111110113LSep 2 · 08:30A. Virag1.571111123Z. Zientek2.2577100WSep 2 · 07:30Z. Zientek2.50114911113P. Varecha1.5071111752WSep 2 · 06:30E. Sionkala1.36149571Z. Zientek3.00121111113LAug 30 · 09:00R. Kvasnicka1.61611711123Z. Zientek2.20117114102LAug 30 · 08:30Z. Zientek2.0011511892R. Kvasnicka1.73611811113LAug 30 · 07:00Z. Zientek2.00118681F. Zurek1.7391111113LAug 30 · 06:00M. Kolek1.91115914113Z. Zientek1.80911111282WAug 28 · 20:59Z. Zientek1.531114109123D. Tyn2.388121211102WAug 28 · 20:30Z. Zientek1.5717116113D. Tyn2.251561161
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