TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111230
Played Sep 11Finished
Anton Molochko
Home
1.29
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1210711711116711
Oleksandr Bondarchuk
Away
3.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:35 and never touched — 59.0% is still 59.0%
Graded at full timeAnton Molochko to win
59.0%
59.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAnton Molochko above · Oleksandr Bondarchuk below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 93 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Anton Molochko at 59.0%
93 points played in total.
H2H Anton Molochko 1–0 Oleksandr Bondarchuk Oleksandr Bondarchuk has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:35What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Molochko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Molochko 1956 vs Bondarchuk 1913
Molochko
Wrong
both rated, 43 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Molochko 40% vs Bondarchuk 20%
Molochko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Molochko 50% vs Bondarchuk 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Molochko -2 · Bondarchuk +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 74% — Strong (leans Molochko) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Molochko form (40%) is below what odds imply (78%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMolochko 1.28 / Bondarchuk 3.50
Signal prob.74% / 26%
Edge (Molochko)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13111230
Molochko1.28
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 148 of 244
Up 2–0, closes it96% 63 of 66
Up 1–0, closes it82% 103 of 125
Bondarchuk3.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 28 of 69
Down 0–1, comes back13% 4 of 30
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 19
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeMolochko1wins
AwayBondarchuk0wins
Molochko leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricMolochkoBondarchukM − BBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match42.024.0+18.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMolochkoBondarchukBasisWin rate · lifetime545 / 934 vs 190 / 34258.4%55.6%545 / 934 vs 190 / 342Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.638.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MolochkoMolochko 1.28/Bondarchuk 3.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
73.9%
Molochko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Bondarchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WSep 10 · 13:25A. Molochko—11119113O. Bondarchuk—371131
A. Molochko10
LSep 11 · 08:25A. Molochko2.0051191182N. Danyliuk1.73116116113LSep 11 · 06:55A. Molochko1.40651181V. Verbyany2.7511114113WSep 11 · 04:55A. Molochko1.501111113B. Kohut2.506770LSep 10 · 17:01N. Danyliuk1.401111113A. Molochko2.752990WSep 10 · 15:25D. Pesternikov4.501117671A. Molochko1.1761911113WSep 10 · 14:25A. Molochko1.401111113B. Kohut2.759670WSep 10 · 13:25O. Bondarchuk2.63371131A. Molochko1.4411119113LSep 10 · 12:25A. Molochko2.10561171N. Danyliuk1.6711115113WSep 8 · 10:35A. Molochko1.91111014113N. Danyliuk1.804121291LSep 8 · 09:05A. Molochko1.4411141141V. Verbyany2.6391613113
O. Bondarchuk10
WSep 11 · 07:25D. Zeniuk2.00511481O. Bondarchuk1.7311811113LSep 11 · 06:25O. Bondarchuk3.754240N. Danyliuk1.251111113LSep 11 · 05:25V. Verbyany1.531113113O. Bondarchuk2.3851180LSep 10 · 16:25D. Pesternikov2.251111113O. Bondarchuk1.576640LSep 10 · 14:55O. Bondarchuk2.7511116482N. Danyliuk1.40791111113LSep 10 · 13:25O. Bondarchuk2.63371131A. Molochko1.4411119113LSep 10 · 11:55O. Bondarchuk2.201379121B. Kohut1.61111111143WAug 21 · 17:13I. Hermakivskyi2.751151241O. Bondarchuk1.4061114113WAug 21 · 15:30A. Tkachenko1.803101161O. Bondarchuk1.9111128113WAug 21 · 14:30O. Bondarchuk1.361111113I. Hermakivskyi3.007580
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