TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111018
Played Sep 11Finished
Anton Molochko
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
511116911116811
Nazar Danyliuk
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 7Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:07 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeNazar Danyliuk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAnton Molochko above · Nazar Danyliuk below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 89 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Nazar Danyliuk at 54.0%
89 points played in total.
H2H Anton Molochko 156–172 Nazar Danyliuk Anton Molochko has won 156 of their 328 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 19:07What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Danyliuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
156-172 in 328
Danyliuk
Correct
gap of 16 in 328, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Molochko 1962 vs Danyliuk 2130
Danyliuk
Correct
both rated, 168 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Molochko 60% vs Danyliuk 100%
Danyliuk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Molochko 50% vs Danyliuk 90%
Danyliuk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Molochko -1 · Danyliuk +5
Danyliuk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Danyliuk) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Danyliuk form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMolochko 2.00 / Danyliuk 1.73
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Danyliuk)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13111018
Molochko2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 63 of 151
Down 0–1, comes back26% 24 of 94
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 50
Danyliuk1.73
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 7
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite61% won 165 of 269
Up 2–0, closes it95% 82 of 86
Up 1–0, closes it81% 122 of 150
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMolochko6wins
AwayDanyliuk4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderMolochko leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMolochko66.7%4 of 6
AwayDanyliuk50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Molochko6Danyliuk4n = 10Molochko took 6 of 10
S2Molochko5Danyliuk5n = 10split evenly
S3Molochko6Danyliuk4n = 10Molochko took 6 of 10
S4Molochko5Danyliuk4n = 9Molochko took 5 of 9
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMolochkoDanyliukM − DBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.338.3+2.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMolochkoDanyliukBasisWin rate · lifetime545 / 933 vs 592 / 97458.4%60.8%545 / 933 vs 592 / 974Avg sets wonper match2.12.3per matchAvg pointsper match37.638.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DanyliukMolochko 2.00/Danyliuk 1.73
Hit
What we said
56.9%
Danyliuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Danyliuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 10 · 12:25A. Molochko—561171N. Danyliuk—11115113
WSep 8 · 10:35A. Molochko—111014113N. Danyliuk—4121291
LSep 7 · 18:05A. Molochko—129591N. Danyliuk—101111113
LSep 7 · 01:38A. Molochko—111181262N. Danyliuk—771114113
WSep 7 · 24:30A. Molochko—118811123N. Danyliuk—811118102
WSep 4 · 08:55A. Molochko—1111133N. Danyliuk—38110
WSep 3 · 15:55A. Molochko—31112113N. Danyliuk—1171031
WAug 31 · 18:05A. Molochko—81111113N. Danyliuk—117961
WAug 31 · 02:00A. Molochko—151511123N. Danyliuk—13173101
LAug 25 · 06:05A. Molochko—411951N. Danyliuk—11511113
A. Molochko10
LSep 11 · 06:55A. Molochko1.40651181V. Verbyany2.7511114113WSep 11 · 04:55A. Molochko1.501111113B. Kohut2.506770LSep 10 · 17:01N. Danyliuk1.401111113A. Molochko2.752990WSep 10 · 15:25D. Pesternikov4.501117671A. Molochko1.1761911113WSep 10 · 14:25A. Molochko1.401111113B. Kohut2.759670WSep 10 · 13:25O. Bondarchuk2.63371131A. Molochko1.4411119113LSep 10 · 12:25A. Molochko2.10561171N. Danyliuk1.6711115113WSep 8 · 10:35A. Molochko1.91111014113N. Danyliuk1.804121291LSep 8 · 09:05A. Molochko1.4411141141V. Verbyany2.6391613113LSep 8 · 07:35A. Molochko1.44911118172B. Kohut2.63117511193
N. Danyliuk10
WSep 11 · 06:25O. Bondarchuk3.754240N. Danyliuk1.251111113WSep 11 · 04:25D. Zeniuk3.2577100N. Danyliuk1.331111123WSep 10 · 17:01N. Danyliuk1.401111113A. Molochko2.752990WSep 10 · 15:55N. Danyliuk1.331111113B. Kohut3.258840WSep 10 · 14:55O. Bondarchuk2.7511116482N. Danyliuk1.40791111113WSep 10 · 13:55D. Pesternikov5.50116761N. Danyliuk1.1381111113WSep 10 · 12:25A. Molochko2.10561171N. Danyliuk1.6711115113LSep 8 · 10:35A. Molochko1.91111014113N. Danyliuk1.804121291WSep 8 · 09:35N. Danyliuk1.3381111113B. Kohut3.25115981WSep 8 · 08:35N. Danyliuk1.301111113D. Zeniuk3.405350
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