TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13110165
Played Sep 11Finished
Jaroslav Prokupek
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
911711116119119
Tomas Dousa
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:33 and never touched — 55.5% is still 55.5%
Graded at full timeTomas Dousa to win
55.5%
55.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJaroslav Prokupek above · Tomas Dousa below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 95 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Tomas Dousa at 55.5%
95 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Prokupek 33–27 Tomas Dousa Tomas Dousa has won 27 of their 60 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:33What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Dousa
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
33-27 in 60
Prokupek
Correct
gap of 6 in 60, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Prokupek 1539 vs Dousa 1541
Dousa
Wrong
both rated, 2 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Prokupek 60% vs Dousa 40%
Prokupek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Prokupek 50% vs Dousa 70%
Dousa
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Prokupek +1 · Dousa -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Dousa) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dousa form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsProkupek 2.00 / Dousa 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Dousa)+0.3pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13110165
Prokupek2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 107 of 252
Down 0–1, comes back17% 20 of 121
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 77
Dousa1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite55% won 97 of 178
Up 2–0, closes it84% 42 of 50
Up 1–0, closes it74% 65 of 88
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeProkupek4wins
AwayDousa6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderDousa leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeProkupek66.7%2 of 3
AwayDousa71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Prokupek3Dousa7n = 10Dousa took 7 of 10
S2Prokupek4Dousa6n = 10Dousa took 6 of 10
S3Prokupek1Dousa9n = 10Dousa took 9 of 10
S4Prokupek4Dousa2n = 6Prokupek took 4 of 6
S5Prokupek3Dousa1n = 4Prokupek took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricProkupekDousaP − DBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match34.840.3−5.5per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricProkupekDousaBasisWin rate · lifetime651 / 1367 vs 347 / 70347.6%49.4%651 / 1367 vs 347 / 703Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.538.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DousaProkupek 2.00/Dousa 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Dousa · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Prokupek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 8 · 21:28J. Prokupek—84100T. Dousa—1111123
LSep 8 · 20:00J. Prokupek—4890T. Dousa—1111113
WAug 24 · 20:30J. Prokupek—111117113T. Dousa—891981
LMay 26 · 15:30J. Prokupek—2650T. Dousa—1111113
LMay 15 · 23:00J. Prokupek—117101182T. Dousa—711128113
LMay 15 · 15:00J. Prokupek—10450T. Dousa—1211113
WApr 26 · 15:00J. Prokupek—118129113T. Dousa—511101162
LApr 11 · 16:30J. Prokupek—813281T. Dousa—111111113
WApr 7 · 16:00J. Prokupek—811811113T. Dousa—11711392
WApr 6 · 24:30J. Prokupek—512611113T. Dousa—111011882
J. Prokupek10
WSep 11 · 18:00T. Janata1.575740J. Prokupek2.251111113LSep 10 · 21:30J. Prokupek1.53511491L. Krok2.3811411113WSep 10 · 20:30J. Prokupek1.671191111113L. Krok2.1041113652LSep 10 · 19:00J. Prokupek1.6761151162Y. Holovatiuk2.10116116113WSep 10 · 18:00J. Jnr2.20681141J. Prokupek1.6111117113LSep 8 · 21:28T. Dousa1.801111123J. Prokupek1.9184100LSep 8 · 20:00J. Prokupek1.914890T. Dousa1.801111113WSep 8 · 19:30J. Plachy1.8091110101J. Prokupek1.9111712123WSep 8 · 18:00J. Prokupek1.91118117113J. Dedek1.8091191182LSep 8 · 03:30J. Prokupek2.25145661D. Kouble1.57121111113
T. Dousa10
LSep 11 · 20:00T. Janata1.50811611143T. Dousa2.50119115122WSep 11 · 18:30T. Dousa1.8381111113J. Plachy1.83118981LSep 10 · 16:59T. Dousa3.508990M. Sedlak1.281111113LSep 10 · 16:30M. Sedlak1.4012411143T. Dousa2.7510116121WSep 10 · 15:30T. Dousa2.0081112113M. Vedmoch1.731171061LSep 10 · 14:30M. Kolar2.501181011113T. Dousa1.5081112372WSep 8 · 21:28T. Dousa1.801111123J. Prokupek1.9184100WSep 8 · 20:00J. Prokupek1.914890T. Dousa1.801111113WSep 8 · 19:00J. Dedek1.73561371T. Dousa2.00111111113WSep 8 · 18:30T. Dousa1.8312212113J. Plachy1.8310111051
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