TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup WomenMatch #13107080
Played Sep 10Finished
Iolanta Yevtodii
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811911511––––
Alina Ovriakh
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:52 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeIolanta Yevtodii to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingIolanta Yevtodii above · Alina Ovriakh below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 55 set 3, 5-11 — our read held Iolanta Yevtodii at 54.0%
55 points played in total.
H2H Iolanta Yevtodii 9–6 Alina Ovriakh Alina Ovriakh has won 6 of their 15 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 23h before this match
Yevtodii beat Ovriakh 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 24:52What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Ovriakh
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-6 in 15
Yevtodii
Wrong
gap of 3 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Yevtodii 1936 vs Ovriakh 1861
Yevtodii
Wrong
both rated, 75 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Yevtodii 60% vs Ovriakh 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Yevtodii 80% vs Ovriakh 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Yevtodii -2 · Ovriakh -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Yevtodii)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsYevtodii 1.83 / Ovriakh 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Yevtodii)+4.0pp
Setka Cup Women · #13107080
Yevtodii1.83
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Ovriakh1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeYevtodii6wins
AwayOvriakh4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderYevtodii leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeYevtodii75%3 of 4
AwayOvriakh50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Yevtodii4Ovriakh6n = 10Ovriakh took 6 of 10
S2Yevtodii4Ovriakh6n = 10Ovriakh took 6 of 10
S3Yevtodii3Ovriakh7n = 10Ovriakh took 7 of 10
S4Yevtodii5Ovriakh4n = 9Yevtodii took 5 of 9
S5Yevtodii5Ovriakh0n = 5Yevtodii took 5 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home550%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricYevtodiiOvriakhY − OBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match41.542.2−0.7per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricYevtodiiOvriakhBasisWin rate · lifetime105 / 145 vs 54 / 8372.4%65.1%105 / 145 vs 54 / 83Avg sets wonper match2.52.4per matchAvg pointsper match39.738.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
YevtodiiYevtodii 1.83/Ovriakh 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Yevtodii · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Ovriakh won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 9 · 06:30I. Yevtodii—1181211123A. Ovriakh—411147102
WAug 13 · 05:30I. Yevtodii—811711113A. Ovriakh—11911792
WAug 12 · 07:00I. Yevtodii—129311113A. Ovriakh—101111562
LJul 7 · 08:30I. Yevtodii—7590A. Ovriakh—1111113
WJun 25 · 04:30I. Yevtodii—711611123A. Ovriakh—118117102
WJun 24 · 12:05I. Yevtodii—611115113A. Ovriakh—11771172
WJun 18 · 05:00I. Yevtodii—111311113A. Ovriakh—915571
LJun 17 · 12:05I. Yevtodii—11111071A. Ovriakh—61312113
LMay 30 · 11:35I. Yevtodii—941171A. Ovriakh—11114113
LMay 29 · 06:30I. Yevtodii—5121481A. Ovriakh—111016113
I. Yevtodii10
LSep 9 · 11:30I. Yevtodii1.177650A. Rzhevska4.501111113LSep 9 · 09:30R. Budnyk4.331111113I. Yevtodii1.208890WSep 9 · 07:30P. Pashchenko4.3310890I. Yevtodii1.201211113WSep 9 · 06:30I. Yevtodii1.831181211123A. Ovriakh1.83411147102WSep 9 · 05:30N. Plokhotniuk2.6376110I. Yevtodii1.441111133WAug 13 · 11:00I. Yevtodii1.17291111113A. Kurtenko4.5011118682WAug 13 · 09:00N. Plokhotniuk2.50611381I. Yevtodii1.5011511113WAug 13 · 08:00I. Yevtodii1.229101111113A. Rzhevska4.0011128862WAug 13 · 07:00U. Dronova4.0011731162I. Yevtodii1.22611118113WAug 13 · 05:30I. Yevtodii1.83811711113A. Ovriakh1.8311911792
A. Ovriakh10
LSep 9 · 11:00N. Plokhotniuk1.911112109113A. Ovriakh1.80610121182WSep 9 · 10:00A. Rzhevska5.00513591A. Ovriakh1.14111111113WSep 9 · 08:30R. Budnyk2.6384120A. Ovriakh1.441111143LSep 9 · 06:30I. Yevtodii1.831181211123A. Ovriakh1.83411147102WSep 9 · 04:30P. Pashchenko6.001191341A. Ovriakh1.1191115113WAug 13 · 11:30A. Ovriakh1.171111113A. Rzhevska4.509970WAug 13 · 09:30U. Dronova2.005680A. Ovriakh1.731111113WAug 13 · 07:30N. Plokhotniuk1.8010750A. Ovriakh1.911211113WAug 13 · 06:30A. Ovriakh1.25981113113A. Kurtenko3.75111131162LAug 13 · 05:30I. Yevtodii1.83811711113A. Ovriakh1.8311911792
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