TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup WomenMatch #13100111
Played Sep 9Finished
Nataliia Plokhotniuk
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11612101012911118
Alina Ovriakh
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:27 and never touched — 54.7% is still 54.7%
Graded at full timeAlina Ovriakh to win
54.7%
54.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingNataliia Plokhotniuk above · Alina Ovriakh below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 100 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Alina Ovriakh at 54.7%
100 points played in total.
H2H Nataliia Plokhotniuk 9–9 Alina Ovriakh Dead even across their 18 meetings.
Last 10 · 4–6Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:27What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Ovriakh
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-9 in 18
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Plokhotniuk 1760 vs Ovriakh 1877
Ovriakh
Wrong
both rated, 117 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Plokhotniuk 60% vs Ovriakh 80%
Ovriakh
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Plokhotniuk 40% vs Ovriakh 80%
Ovriakh
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Plokhotniuk +2 · Ovriakh +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Ovriakh) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ovriakh form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPlokhotniuk 1.91 / Ovriakh 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Ovriakh)+2.5pp
Setka Cup Women · #13100111
Plokhotniuk1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Ovriakh1.80
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePlokhotniuk4wins
AwayOvriakh6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderOvriakh leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePlokhotniuk80%4 of 5
AwayOvriakh100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Plokhotniuk5Ovriakh5n = 10split evenly
S2Plokhotniuk4Ovriakh6n = 10Ovriakh took 6 of 10
S3Plokhotniuk5Ovriakh5n = 10split evenly
S4Plokhotniuk4Ovriakh2n = 6Plokhotniuk took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricPlokhotniukOvriakhP − OBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match35.136.7−1.6per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPlokhotniukOvriakhBasisWin rate · lifetime105 / 173 vs 54 / 8260.7%65.9%105 / 173 vs 54 / 82Avg sets wonper match2.22.4per matchAvg pointsper match37.838.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OvriakhPlokhotniuk 1.91/Ovriakh 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Ovriakh · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Plokhotniuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 13 · 07:30N. Plokhotniuk—10750A. Ovriakh—1211113
LAug 12 · 10:30N. Plokhotniuk—971191A. Ovriakh—11118113
LJul 23 · 10:03N. Plokhotniuk—411711102A. Ovriakh—119117123
LJul 23 · 09:00N. Plokhotniuk—112761A. Ovriakh—41111113
LJul 22 · 09:30N. Plokhotniuk—109111152A. Ovriakh—121198113
WJul 22 · 04:30N. Plokhotniuk—11912123A. Ovriakh—81110101
LJul 7 · 07:30N. Plokhotniuk—48100A. Ovriakh—1111123
WJul 6 · 07:00N. Plokhotniuk—1511113A. Ovriakh—13750
WJun 25 · 08:30N. Plokhotniuk—1111113A. Ovriakh—9980
WJun 24 · 10:35N. Plokhotniuk—11128113A. Ovriakh—4101151
N. Plokhotniuk10
WSep 9 · 09:00P. Pashchenko3.75211981N. Plokhotniuk1.2511911113WSep 9 · 08:00N. Plokhotniuk1.201111113A. Rzhevska4.338540LSep 9 · 07:00R. Budnyk3.40811145113N. Plokhotniuk1.30118121192LSep 9 · 05:30N. Plokhotniuk2.6376110I. Yevtodii1.441111133WAug 13 · 10:30N. Plokhotniuk1.501111113U. Dronova2.508720LAug 13 · 09:00N. Plokhotniuk2.50611381I. Yevtodii1.5011511113LAug 13 · 07:30N. Plokhotniuk1.8010750A. Ovriakh1.911211113WAug 13 · 06:00N. Plokhotniuk1.2061112113A. Rzhevska4.331131081LAug 13 · 04:30N. Plokhotniuk1.2858110A. Kurtenko3.501111133LAug 12 · 10:30N. Plokhotniuk1.83971191A. Ovriakh1.8311118113
A. Ovriakh10
WSep 9 · 10:00A. Rzhevska5.00513591A. Ovriakh1.14111111113WSep 9 · 08:30R. Budnyk2.6384120A. Ovriakh1.441111143LSep 9 · 06:30I. Yevtodii1.831181211123A. Ovriakh1.83411147102WSep 9 · 04:30P. Pashchenko6.001191341A. Ovriakh1.1191115113WAug 13 · 11:30A. Ovriakh1.171111113A. Rzhevska4.509970WAug 13 · 09:30U. Dronova2.005680A. Ovriakh1.731111113WAug 13 · 07:30N. Plokhotniuk1.8010750A. Ovriakh1.911211113WAug 13 · 06:30A. Ovriakh1.25981113113A. Kurtenko3.75111131162LAug 13 · 05:30I. Yevtodii1.83811711113A. Ovriakh1.8311911792WAug 12 · 10:30N. Plokhotniuk1.83971191A. Ovriakh1.8311118113
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