TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup WomenMatch #13100035
Played Sep 9Finished
Roksolana Budnyk
Home
3.40
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
8111181412511119
Nataliia Plokhotniuk
Away
1.30
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:18 and never touched — 75.8% is still 75.8%
Graded at full timeNataliia Plokhotniuk to win
75.8%
75.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRoksolana Budnyk above · Nataliia Plokhotniuk below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 14-12
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 100 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Nataliia Plokhotniuk at 75.8%
100 points played in total.
H2H Roksolana Budnyk 5–15 Nataliia Plokhotniuk Roksolana Budnyk has won 5 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:18What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Plokhotniuk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-15 in 20
Plokhotniuk
Wrong
gap of 10 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Budnyk 1708 vs Plokhotniuk 1747
Plokhotniuk
Wrong
both rated, 39 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Budnyk 60% vs Plokhotniuk 40%
Budnyk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Budnyk 60% vs Plokhotniuk 40%
Budnyk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Budnyk -2 · Plokhotniuk -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 74% — Strong (leans Plokhotniuk) · live re-read · sealed at 76% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Plokhotniuk form (40%) is below what odds imply (77%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBudnyk 3.40 / Plokhotniuk 1.30
Signal prob.26% / 74%
Edge (Plokhotniuk)+1.6pp
Setka Cup Women · #13100035
Budnyk3.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Plokhotniuk1.30
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBudnyk3wins
AwayPlokhotniuk7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderPlokhotniuk leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBudnykn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayPlokhotniuk77.8%7 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Budnyk1Plokhotniuk9n = 10Plokhotniuk took 9 of 10
S2Budnyk3Plokhotniuk7n = 10Plokhotniuk took 7 of 10
S3Budnyk6Plokhotniuk4n = 10Budnyk took 6 of 10
S4Budnyk1Plokhotniuk5n = 6Plokhotniuk took 5 of 6
S5Budnyk2Plokhotniuk1n = 3Budnyk took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricBudnykPlokhotniukB − PBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match32.538.4−5.9per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBudnykPlokhotniukBasisWin rate · lifetime56 / 107 vs 103 / 17152.3%60.2%56 / 107 vs 103 / 171Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.337.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PlokhotniukBudnyk 3.40/Plokhotniuk 1.30
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
73.9%
Plokhotniuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Budnyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 9 · 07:00R. Budnyk—811145113N. Plokhotniuk—118121192
WAug 12 · 04:30R. Budnyk—14911113N. Plokhotniuk—1211891
LJul 23 · 08:00R. Budnyk—81111982N. Plokhotniuk—116411113
LJul 6 · 09:58R. Budnyk—9670N. Plokhotniuk—1111113
LJul 6 · 06:00R. Budnyk—6950N. Plokhotniuk—1111113
LMar 26 · 07:35R. Budnyk—5911111N. Plokhotniuk—11118133
LMar 25 · 15:10R. Budnyk—661181N. Plokhotniuk—11118113
WMar 10 · 07:30R. Budnyk—811115113N. Plokhotniuk—11521152
LFeb 26 · 08:05R. Budnyk—4960N. Plokhotniuk—1111113
LFeb 25 · 18:10R. Budnyk—2440N. Plokhotniuk—1111113
R. Budnyk10
LSep 9 · 05:00R. Budnyk1.4411890A. Rzhevska2.631311113LAug 12 · 11:00I. Yevtodii1.2081211113R. Budnyk4.331110651WAug 12 · 10:00A. Kurtenko2.2081150R. Budnyk1.611113113WAug 12 · 08:30A. Ovriakh1.44118681R. Budnyk2.6391111113WAug 12 · 06:30U. Dronova1.80911951R. Budnyk1.9111511113WAug 12 · 04:30N. Plokhotniuk1.251211891R. Budnyk3.7514911113LJul 23 · 09:41A. Rzhevska3.75811115113R. Budnyk1.2511591172LJul 23 · 08:00N. Plokhotniuk1.25116411113R. Budnyk3.7581111982WJul 23 · 07:00R. Budnyk1.611111113A. Kurtenko2.206560WJul 23 · 06:00A. Ovriakh1.4097100R. Budnyk2.751111123
N. Plokhotniuk10
LSep 9 · 05:30N. Plokhotniuk2.6376110I. Yevtodii1.441111133WAug 13 · 10:30N. Plokhotniuk1.501111113U. Dronova2.508720LAug 13 · 09:00N. Plokhotniuk2.50611381I. Yevtodii1.5011511113LAug 13 · 07:30N. Plokhotniuk1.8010750A. Ovriakh1.911211113WAug 13 · 06:00N. Plokhotniuk1.2061112113A. Rzhevska4.331131081LAug 13 · 04:30N. Plokhotniuk1.2858110A. Kurtenko3.501111133LAug 12 · 10:30N. Plokhotniuk1.83971191A. Ovriakh1.8311118113LAug 12 · 09:00N. Plokhotniuk2.3858100I. Yevtodii1.531111123LAug 12 · 04:30N. Plokhotniuk1.251211891R. Budnyk3.7514911113WJul 23 · 08:00N. Plokhotniuk1.25116411113R. Budnyk3.7581111982
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