TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13105629
Played Sep 10Finished
Oleksandr Lyman
Home
2.50
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
911119119711118
Serhii Maliuk
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:35 and never touched — 64.1% is still 64.1%
Graded at full timeSerhii Maliuk to win
64.1%
64.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleksandr Lyman above · Serhii Maliuk below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 97 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Serhii Maliuk at 64.1%
97 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Lyman 25–41 Serhii Maliuk Oleksandr Lyman has won 25 of their 66 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:35What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Maliuk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
25-41 in 66
Maliuk
Wrong
gap of 16 in 66, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lyman 1447 vs Maliuk 1511
Maliuk
Wrong
both rated, 64 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lyman 100% vs Maliuk 60%
Lyman
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lyman 60% vs Maliuk 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Lyman +5 · Maliuk +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Maliuk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lyman form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLyman 2.50 / Maliuk 1.50
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Maliuk)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13105629
Lyman2.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog27% won 58 of 212
Down 0–1, comes back16% 20 of 124
Down 0–2, comes back5% 4 of 76
Maliuk1.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite64% won 66 of 104
Up 2–0, closes it92% 33 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it77% 49 of 64
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLyman2wins
AwayMaliuk8wins
1 of 10 to a deciderMaliuk leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLymann = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayMaliuk88.9%8 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lyman1Maliuk9n = 10Maliuk took 9 of 10
S2Lyman2Maliuk8n = 10Maliuk took 8 of 10
S3Lyman4Maliuk6n = 10Maliuk took 6 of 10
S4Lyman2Maliuk2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away660%
These 10 meetings
MetricLymanMaliukL − MBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match29.537.6−8.1per matchSweeps06−63–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLymanMaliukBasisWin rate · lifetime275 / 614 vs 247 / 49644.8%49.8%275 / 614 vs 247 / 496Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.537.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MaliukLyman 2.50/Maliuk 1.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.1%
Maliuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Lyman won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 8 · 06:30O. Lyman—87100S. Maliuk—1111123
LSep 4 · 10:00O. Lyman—51080S. Maliuk—1112113
WSep 3 · 07:00O. Lyman—61211113S. Maliuk—1110671
LSep 1 · 10:30O. Lyman—7750S. Maliuk—1111113
WAug 27 · 10:30O. Lyman—11711113S. Maliuk—911981
LAug 26 · 08:30O. Lyman—57120S. Maliuk—1111143
LAug 25 · 06:00O. Lyman—61111772S. Maliuk—119811113
LAug 20 · 09:00O. Lyman—1071471S. Maliuk—121112113
LAug 19 · 10:00O. Lyman—41590S. Maliuk—1117113
LJun 11 · 04:30O. Lyman—2950S. Maliuk—1111113
O. Lyman10
LSep 10 · 09:30O. Syksa1.201111113O. Lyman4.339680WSep 10 · 07:30S. Miroshnychenko3.00811681O. Lyman1.3611711113WSep 10 · 06:30O. Lyman3.25111169113D. Prylepa1.3338111192WSep 10 · 05:30O. Kurylenko1.61611171O. Lyman2.2011116113WSep 8 · 11:00O. Kurylenko1.61820111142O. Lyman2.201118134113WSep 8 · 10:00S. Miroshnychenko2.7551160O. Lyman1.401113113LSep 8 · 08:30V. Ziakun3.501110611113O. Lyman1.2871211852LSep 8 · 06:30S. Maliuk1.611111123O. Lyman2.2087100WSep 8 · 04:30O. Ziakun1.611181071O. Lyman2.2061112113LSep 6 · 11:00D. Prylepa1.3381111113O. Lyman3.25117881
S. Maliuk10
WSep 10 · 10:00S. Maliuk2.10111111113D. Prylepa1.67613861WSep 10 · 08:00O. Kurylenko1.731010131192S. Maliuk2.001212119113WSep 10 · 06:00S. Miroshnychenko2.751139121S. Maliuk1.4091111143LSep 10 · 05:00O. Syksa1.6111119143S. Maliuk2.209711121LSep 8 · 11:30S. Maliuk1.409111751S. Miroshnychenko2.7511419113WSep 8 · 09:30V. Ziakun4.0075100S. Maliuk1.221111123LSep 8 · 07:30O. Ziakun1.8311811113S. Maliuk1.83711881WSep 8 · 06:30S. Maliuk1.611111123O. Lyman2.2087100WSep 8 · 05:30O. Kurylenko1.7311114792S. Maliuk2.00751111113WSep 7 · 11:30O. Kurylenko1.409620S. Maliuk2.751111113
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