TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13077205
Played Sep 5Finished
Szymon Sporek
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
10121315117511––
Grzegorz Adamiak
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:58 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Adamiak to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSzymon Sporek above · Grzegorz Adamiak below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 13-15
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 84 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Grzegorz Adamiak at 54.1%
84 points played in total.
H2H Szymon Sporek 5–9 Grzegorz Adamiak Szymon Sporek has won 5 of their 14 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:58What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Adamiak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-9 in 14
Adamiak
Correct
gap of 4 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sporek 1702 vs Adamiak 1781
Adamiak
Correct
both rated, 79 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sporek 20% vs Adamiak 80%
Adamiak
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sporek 50% vs Adamiak 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sporek -3 · Adamiak -1
Sporek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Adamiak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Adamiak form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSporek 1.91 / Adamiak 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Adamiak)+2.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13077205
Sporek1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 68 of 158
Down 0–1, comes back19% 14 of 73
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 36
Adamiak1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite68% won 77 of 113
Up 2–0, closes it95% 39 of 41
Up 1–0, closes it84% 58 of 69
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSporek5wins
AwayAdamiak5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSporek80%4 of 5
AwayAdamiak80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sporek5Adamiak5n = 10split evenly
S2Sporek2Adamiak8n = 10Adamiak took 8 of 10
S3Sporek7Adamiak3n = 10Sporek took 7 of 10
S4Sporek4Adamiak4n = 8split evenly
S5Sporek2Adamiak1n = 3Sporek took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSporekAdamiakS − ABasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.339.2+0.1per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSporekAdamiakBasisWin rate · lifetime410 / 822 vs 332 / 76449.9%43.5%410 / 822 vs 332 / 764Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match39.435.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AdamiakSporek 1.91/Adamiak 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Adamiak · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Adamiak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 5 · 06:30S. Sporek—3711111G. Adamiak—11118133
LApr 19 · 10:25S. Sporek—391171G. Adamiak—11117113
WApr 3 · 14:00S. Sporek—111411113G. Adamiak—716751
WApr 3 · 08:45S. Sporek—117313113G. Adamiak—611111192
LJan 25 · 12:10S. Sporek—9911111G. Adamiak—11119133
WDec 7 · 11:25S. Sporek—148713113G. Adamiak—1211111182
WOct 26 · 15:05S. Sporek—1112113G. Adamiak—81080
LOct 12 · 12:00S. Sporek—6980G. Adamiak—1111113
LJul 18 · 04:35S. Sporek—11511992G. Adamiak—611611113
WJul 17 · 12:45S. Sporek—111111113G. Adamiak—136331
S. Sporek10
LSep 6 · 14:10S. Sporek1.8011911181M. Domin1.9171113203LSep 6 · 12:30G. Adamiak1.831111715113S. Sporek1.8387111752WSep 6 · 11:40S. Kolasa1.40121211592S. Sporek2.751014611113WSep 6 · 10:50S. Sporek2.75811711113J. Braun1.4011911562WSep 6 · 09:40S. Sporek1.9111111110113M. Nowalinski1.8079131282LSep 6 · 08:30S. Sporek1.9141111672M. Nowalinski1.80116711113LSep 6 · 06:55S. Sporek2.7591190S. Kolasa1.401113113WSep 6 · 05:40S. Sporek2.751711102113J. Braun1.40157121192LSep 6 · 04:10S. Sporek2.101178101M. Domin1.6781111123WSep 6 · 03:00S. Sporek1.5711116133G. Poliniewicz2.259611111
G. Adamiak10
WSep 6 · 13:45G. Adamiak1.83113611113M. Nowalinski1.8361111662WSep 6 · 12:30G. Adamiak1.831111715113S. Sporek1.8387111752LSep 6 · 11:15G. Adamiak1.80971191M. Domin1.9111113113LSep 6 · 10:00S. Kolasa1.4461111113G. Adamiak2.63117621LSep 6 · 09:20G. Adamiak2.75911961J. Braun1.4011911113WSep 6 · 08:05D. Wasilewski4.25117110G. Adamiak1.181311133WSep 6 · 07:15M. Zagajewski5.80691131G. Adamiak1.0911115113WSep 6 · 05:15P. Staniszewski5.405970G. Adamiak1.111111113WSep 6 · 04:25T. Pisarczyk6.906450G. Adamiak1.061111113WSep 6 · 03:00I. Dabrowski—8111451G. Adamiak—11616113
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