TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13077181
Played Sep 5Finished
Grzegorz Adamiak
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1131178111311––
Szymon Sporek
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:50 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Adamiak to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingGrzegorz Adamiak above · Szymon Sporek below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 13-11
Point 75 set 4, 13-11 — our read held Grzegorz Adamiak at 54.1%
75 points played in total.
H2H Grzegorz Adamiak 11–5 Szymon Sporek Szymon Sporek has won 5 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:50What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Adamiak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-5 in 16
Adamiak
Correct
gap of 6 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Adamiak 1795 vs Sporek 1742
Adamiak
Correct
both rated, 53 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Adamiak 20% vs Sporek 80%
Sporek
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Adamiak 10% vs Sporek 60%
Sporek
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Adamiak -2 · Sporek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Adamiak) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sporek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAdamiak 1.73 / Sporek 2.00
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Adamiak)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13077181
Adamiak1.73
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite70% won 88 of 126
Up 2–0, closes it96% 47 of 49
Up 1–0, closes it85% 69 of 81
Sporek2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog43% won 75 of 175
Down 0–1, comes back20% 17 of 84
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 41
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAdamiak6wins
AwaySporek4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderAdamiak leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAdamiak100%6 of 6
AwaySporek100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Adamiak6Sporek4n = 10Adamiak took 6 of 10
S2Adamiak9Sporek1n = 10Adamiak took 9 of 10
S3Adamiak3Sporek7n = 10Sporek took 7 of 10
S4Adamiak4Sporek4n = 8split evenly
S5Adamiak1Sporek2n = 3Sporek took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricAdamiakSporekA − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.239.1+3.1per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAdamiakSporekBasisWin rate · lifetime341 / 776 vs 403 / 81243.9%49.6%341 / 776 vs 403 / 812Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.839.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AdamiakAdamiak 1.73/Sporek 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.7%
Adamiak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Adamiak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 6 · 12:30G. Adamiak—1111715113S. Sporek—87111752
WSep 5 · 13:20G. Adamiak—12157113S. Sporek—10131151
WSep 5 · 06:30G. Adamiak—11118133S. Sporek—3711111
WApr 19 · 10:25G. Adamiak—11117113S. Sporek—391171
LApr 3 · 14:00G. Adamiak—716751S. Sporek—111411113
LApr 3 · 08:45G. Adamiak—611111192S. Sporek—117313113
WJan 25 · 12:10G. Adamiak—11119133S. Sporek—9911111
LDec 7 · 11:25G. Adamiak—1211111182S. Sporek—148713113
LOct 26 · 15:05G. Adamiak—81080S. Sporek—1112113
WOct 12 · 12:00G. Adamiak—1111113S. Sporek—6980
G. Adamiak10
WSep 6 · 13:45G. Adamiak1.83113611113M. Nowalinski1.8361111662WSep 6 · 12:30G. Adamiak1.831111715113S. Sporek1.8387111752LSep 6 · 11:15G. Adamiak1.80971191M. Domin1.9111113113LSep 6 · 10:00S. Kolasa1.4461111113G. Adamiak2.63117621LSep 6 · 09:20G. Adamiak2.75911961J. Braun1.4011911113WSep 6 · 08:05D. Wasilewski4.25117110G. Adamiak1.181311133WSep 6 · 07:15M. Zagajewski5.80691131G. Adamiak1.0911115113WSep 6 · 05:15P. Staniszewski5.405970G. Adamiak1.111111113WSep 6 · 04:25T. Pisarczyk6.906450G. Adamiak1.061111113WSep 6 · 03:00I. Dabrowski—8111451G. Adamiak—11616113
S. Sporek10
LSep 6 · 14:10S. Sporek1.8011911181M. Domin1.9171113203LSep 6 · 12:30G. Adamiak1.831111715113S. Sporek1.8387111752WSep 6 · 11:40S. Kolasa1.40121211592S. Sporek2.751014611113WSep 6 · 10:50S. Sporek2.75811711113J. Braun1.4011911562WSep 6 · 09:40S. Sporek1.9111111110113M. Nowalinski1.8079131282LSep 6 · 08:30S. Sporek1.9141111672M. Nowalinski1.80116711113LSep 6 · 06:55S. Sporek2.7591190S. Kolasa1.401113113WSep 6 · 05:40S. Sporek2.751711102113J. Braun1.40157121192LSep 6 · 04:10S. Sporek2.101178101M. Domin1.6781111123WSep 6 · 03:00S. Sporek1.5711116133G. Poliniewicz2.259611111
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