TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13065368
Played Sep 3Finished
Jakub Kaczmarek
Home
2.30
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
9111197111315––
Wojciech Urban
Away
1.55
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:20 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Kaczmarek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
86 points played in total.
Set by set
9111197111315––
H2H Jakub Kaczmarek 15–18 Wojciech Urban Jakub Kaczmarek has won 15 of their 33 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:20What took a side0 for · 3 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.55 (60%)
Urban
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-18 in 33
Urban
Correct
gap of 3 in 33, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kaczmarek 1351 vs Urban 1384
Urban
Correct
both rated, 33 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kaczmarek 60% vs Urban 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kaczmarek 50% vs Urban 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kaczmarek +2 · Urban +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Urban) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kaczmarek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (43%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKaczmarek 2.30 / Urban 1.55
Signal prob.40% / 61%
Edge (Urban)+0.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13065368
Kaczmarek2.30
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog33% won 159 of 487
Down 0–1, comes back19% 59 of 318
Down 0–2, comes back3% 5 of 179
Urban1.55
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 173 of 296
Up 2–0, closes it96% 71 of 74
Up 1–0, closes it73% 121 of 165
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKaczmarek7wins
AwayUrban3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKaczmarek leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKaczmarek100%6 of 6
AwayUrban75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kaczmarek6Urban4n = 10Kaczmarek took 6 of 10
S2Kaczmarek6Urban4n = 10Kaczmarek took 6 of 10
S3Kaczmarek7Urban3n = 10Kaczmarek took 7 of 10
S4Kaczmarek4Urban3n = 7Kaczmarek took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKaczmarekUrbanK − UBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.734.9+3.8per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKaczmarekUrbanBasisWin rate · lifetime468 / 1285 vs 725 / 154636.4%46.9%468 / 1285 vs 725 / 1546Avg sets wonper match1.61.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.937.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
UrbanKaczmarek 2.30/Urban 1.55
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.5%
Urban · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Urban won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 28 · 03:10J. Kaczmarek—11115113W. Urban—891131
WAug 26 · 08:45J. Kaczmarek—1111113W. Urban—8770
LAug 12 · 06:45J. Kaczmarek—11990W. Urban—1311113
WAug 6 · 06:25J. Kaczmarek—1112113W. Urban—81070
WJul 30 · 07:10J. Kaczmarek—141111113W. Urban—169681
WJul 25 · 03:10J. Kaczmarek—119118143W. Urban—511311122
LJul 23 · 04:25J. Kaczmarek—311961W. Urban—11811113
LJul 20 · 05:05J. Kaczmarek—51211392W. Urban—1110911113
WJul 15 · 01:25J. Kaczmarek—11811123W. Urban—8116101
WJul 14 · 19:20J. Kaczmarek—11911113W. Urban—811441
J. Kaczmarek10
WSep 4 · 17:05R. Niemiec1.85611951J. Kaczmarek1.8011811113LSep 4 · 15:55J. Kaczmarek3.901181281S. Szostok1.2291114113LSep 4 · 14:45O. Jadach1.2511819113J. Kaczmarek3.757111731WSep 4 · 13:30W. Tobiasz1.5791181182J. Kaczmarek2.20119116113LSep 4 · 11:55G. Wichowski1.20115911113J. Kaczmarek3.8541111792LSep 4 · 11:05O. Jadach1.301113153J. Kaczmarek3.20811130LSep 4 · 09:55J. Kaczmarek3.3591131172S. Szostok1.27119119113WSep 4 · 08:45R. Niemiec1.8581411972J. Kaczmarek1.801112911113WSep 4 · 07:30W. Tobiasz1.601281081J. Kaczmarek2.10101112113LSep 4 · 05:55G. Wichowski1.251111113J. Kaczmarek3.509380
W. Urban10
WSep 4 · 08:45P. Mecik2.0549111182W. Urban1.66111155113WSep 4 · 07:35W. Urban1.83911811123Y. Fomin1.86118118102LSep 4 · 06:25A. Ruszkiewicz2.1011114143W. Urban1.606711121WSep 4 · 05:10M. Lebek1.5066111182W. Urban2.35111157113LSep 4 · 03:35M. Paszkiewicz2.401111113W. Urban1.507950LSep 3 · 08:20O. Sokolowski2.17101111113W. Urban1.59129371LSep 3 · 07:35A. Burkacki1.951111123W. Urban1.7553100WSep 3 · 05:35M. Paszkiewicz2.2561450W. Urban1.541116113WSep 3 · 04:50M. Lebek1.75166111152W. Urban1.95181178113WSep 3 · 02:20O. Sokolowski2.25118911102W. Urban1.55711112123
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