TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13046671
Played Aug 30Finished
Adrian Eliasz
Home
1.78
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1176119111210711
Kacper Marchlewski
Away
1.93
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:09 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKacper Marchlewski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
95 points played in total.
Set by set
1176119111210711
H2H Adrian Eliasz 13–12 Kacper Marchlewski Kacper Marchlewski has won 12 of their 25 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:09What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.78 (52%)
Eliasz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-12 in 25
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Eliasz 1204 vs Marchlewski 1177
Eliasz
Wrong
both rated, 27 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Eliasz 0% vs Marchlewski 40%
Marchlewski
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Eliasz 30% vs Marchlewski 50%
Marchlewski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Eliasz -5 · Marchlewski -2
Eliasz
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Eliasz) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marchlewski form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsEliasz 1.78 / Marchlewski 1.93
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Eliasz)+2.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13046671
Eliasz1.78
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite51% won 70 of 137
Up 2–0, closes it93% 28 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it68% 48 of 71
Marchlewski1.93
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog34% won 34 of 101
Down 0–1, comes back10% 5 of 50
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 28
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeEliasz5wins
AwayMarchlewski5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeEliasz66.7%4 of 6
AwayMarchlewski75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Eliasz6Marchlewski4n = 10Eliasz took 6 of 10
S2Eliasz5Marchlewski5n = 10split evenly
S3Eliasz5Marchlewski5n = 10split evenly
S4Eliasz3Marchlewski2n = 5Eliasz took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricEliaszMarchlewskiE − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match33.733.5+0.2per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricEliaszMarchlewskiBasisWin rate · lifetime366 / 968 vs 139 / 31737.8%43.9%366 / 968 vs 139 / 317Avg sets wonper match1.71.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.936.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
EliaszEliasz 1.78/Marchlewski 1.93
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Eliasz · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Marchlewski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 30 · 03:00A. Eliasz—1111113K. Marchlewski—5680
LJul 29 · 21:55A. Eliasz—81181142K. Marchlewski—118115113
WJul 29 · 20:05A. Eliasz—61111113K. Marchlewski—118581
WJul 27 · 23:20A. Eliasz—111011113K. Marchlewski—712591
LJul 27 · 17:45A. Eliasz—1391061K. Marchlewski—111112113
LMar 21 · 03:20A. Eliasz—8770K. Marchlewski—1111113
LMar 21 · 24:55A. Eliasz—6980K. Marchlewski—1111113
WMar 20 · 17:45A. Eliasz—1111113K. Marchlewski—9980
WJul 27 · 09:20A. Eliasz—1111113K. Marchlewski—6990
LJun 28 · 23:50A. Eliasz—134951K. Marchlewski—111111113
A. Eliasz10
WAug 30 · 13:55A. Eliasz2.20117911113M. Sinicki1.5791111982LAug 30 · 12:40A. Eliasz1.9181311882B. Wisniewski1.781111811113LAug 30 · 10:10M. Piecowski1.55117119113A. Eliasz2.2571191192LAug 30 · 09:25A. Eliasz1.4781111582M. Piecowski2.45115911113LAug 30 · 08:35A. Eliasz1.86791291B. Wisniewski1.83111110113LAug 30 · 06:55A. Eliasz1.491141161M. Piecowski2.4513119113LAug 30 · 05:40A. Eliasz2.10117991M. Piecowski1.6581111113WAug 30 · 04:10A. Eliasz1.83111147113M. Lukaszewski1.8357111182WAug 30 · 03:00A. Eliasz1.851111113K. Marchlewski1.855680LAug 29 · 24:35K. Klocek1.601111113A. Eliasz2.102240
K. Marchlewski10
WSep 3 · 24:35K. Marchlewski2.001111113W. Gluszek1.718980WSep 2 · 23:45M. Piecowski1.83611591K. Marchlewski1.8611411113LSep 2 · 22:35K. Marchlewski1.8512940M. Kowalczyk1.801411113LSep 2 · 21:55M. Piecowski1.8511911113K. Marchlewski1.80711991WSep 2 · 19:40K. Marchlewski2.001111113P. Strus1.735670LSep 2 · 18:30K. Marchlewski2.24811881W. Gluszek1.5511911113WSep 2 · 17:20K. Marchlewski1.71117118113M. Piecowski1.9841191182LSep 2 · 16:15M. Piecowski1.831110118113K. Marchlewski1.8681241172LSep 2 · 15:25K. Marchlewski1.802950M. Kowalczyk1.901111113LAug 30 · 03:00A. Eliasz1.851111113K. Marchlewski1.855680
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