TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13040699
Played Aug 30Finished
Adrian Eliasz
Home
1.85
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
115116118––––
Kacper Marchlewski
Away
1.85
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:47 and never touched — 55.9% is still 55.9%
Graded at full timeAdrian Eliasz to win
55.9%
55.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
52 points played in total.
Set by set
115116118––––
H2H Adrian Eliasz 12–12 Kacper Marchlewski Dead even across their 24 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 08:47What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.85 (50%)
Marchlewski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-12 in 24
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Eliasz 1233 vs Marchlewski 1184
Eliasz
Correct
both rated, 49 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Eliasz 40% vs Marchlewski 60%
Marchlewski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Eliasz 50% vs Marchlewski 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Eliasz -1 · Marchlewski +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Eliasz) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Eliasz form (40%) is below what odds imply (54%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsEliasz 1.85 / Marchlewski 1.85
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Eliasz)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13040699
Eliasz1.85
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Marchlewski1.85
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeEliasz5wins
AwayMarchlewski5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeEliasz60%3 of 5
AwayMarchlewski60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Eliasz5Marchlewski5n = 10split evenly
S2Eliasz5Marchlewski5n = 10split evenly
S3Eliasz5Marchlewski5n = 10split evenly
S4Eliasz4Marchlewski2n = 6Eliasz took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricEliaszMarchlewskiE − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match34.534.8−0.3per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricEliaszMarchlewskiBasisWin rate · lifetime364 / 961 vs 140 / 31837.9%44%364 / 961 vs 140 / 318Avg sets wonper match1.71.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.836.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
EliaszEliasz 1.85/Marchlewski 1.85
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Eliasz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Eliasz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 29 · 21:55A. Eliasz—81181142K. Marchlewski—118115113
WJul 29 · 20:05A. Eliasz—61111113K. Marchlewski—118581
WJul 27 · 23:20A. Eliasz—111011113K. Marchlewski—712591
LJul 27 · 17:45A. Eliasz—1391061K. Marchlewski—111112113
LMar 21 · 03:20A. Eliasz—8770K. Marchlewski—1111113
LMar 21 · 24:55A. Eliasz—6980K. Marchlewski—1111113
WMar 20 · 17:45A. Eliasz—1111113K. Marchlewski—9980
WJul 27 · 09:20A. Eliasz—1111113K. Marchlewski—6990
LJun 28 · 23:50A. Eliasz—134951K. Marchlewski—111111113
WJun 28 · 21:30A. Eliasz—81111113K. Marchlewski—115791
A. Eliasz10
WAug 30 · 13:55A. Eliasz2.20117911113M. Sinicki1.5791111982LAug 30 · 12:40A. Eliasz1.9181311882B. Wisniewski1.781111811113LAug 30 · 11:25A. Eliasz1.7811691272K. Marchlewski1.937111110113LAug 30 · 10:10M. Piecowski1.55117119113A. Eliasz2.2571191192LAug 30 · 09:25A. Eliasz1.4781111582M. Piecowski2.45115911113LAug 30 · 08:35A. Eliasz1.86791291B. Wisniewski1.83111110113LAug 30 · 06:55A. Eliasz1.491141161M. Piecowski2.4513119113LAug 30 · 05:40A. Eliasz2.10117991M. Piecowski1.6581111113WAug 30 · 04:10A. Eliasz1.83111147113M. Lukaszewski1.8357111182LAug 29 · 24:35K. Klocek1.601111113A. Eliasz2.102240
K. Marchlewski10
WSep 3 · 24:35K. Marchlewski2.001111113W. Gluszek1.718980WSep 2 · 23:45M. Piecowski1.83611591K. Marchlewski1.8611411113LSep 2 · 22:35K. Marchlewski1.8512940M. Kowalczyk1.801411113LSep 2 · 21:55M. Piecowski1.8511911113K. Marchlewski1.80711991WSep 2 · 19:40K. Marchlewski2.001111113P. Strus1.735670LSep 2 · 18:30K. Marchlewski2.24811881W. Gluszek1.5511911113WSep 2 · 17:20K. Marchlewski1.71117118113M. Piecowski1.9841191182LSep 2 · 16:15M. Piecowski1.831110118113K. Marchlewski1.8681241172LSep 2 · 15:25K. Marchlewski1.802950M. Kowalczyk1.901111113WAug 30 · 11:25A. Eliasz1.7811691272K. Marchlewski1.937111110113
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