TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13035421
Played Aug 28Finished
Tomasz Wrzalik
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
16181210611711––
Mariusz Baron
Away
1.71
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:30 and never touched — 61.3% is still 61.3%
Graded at full timeMariusz Baron to win
61.3%
61.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
91 points played in total.
Set by set
16181210611711––
H2H Tomasz Wrzalik 14–17 Mariusz Baron Tomasz Wrzalik has won 14 of their 31 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:30What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.71 (54%)
Baron
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-17 in 31
Baron
Correct
gap of 3 in 31, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Wrzalik 1309 vs Baron 1321
Baron
Correct
both rated, 13 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Wrzalik 20% vs Baron 40%
Baron
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Wrzalik 20% vs Baron 50%
Baron
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Wrzalik -3 · Baron -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Baron) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Baron form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWrzalik 2.00 / Baron 1.71
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Baron)+0.1pp
TT Elite Series · #13035421
Wrzalik2.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog36% won 73 of 205
Down 0–1, comes back18% 20 of 114
Down 0–2, comes back7% 4 of 54
Baron1.71
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite57% won 223 of 391
Up 2–0, closes it83% 110 of 132
Up 1–0, closes it71% 164 of 231
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeWrzalik4wins
AwayBaron6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderBaron leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWrzalik33.3%1 of 3
AwayBaron57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Wrzalik3Baron7n = 10Baron took 7 of 10
S2Wrzalik7Baron3n = 10Wrzalik took 7 of 10
S3Wrzalik5Baron5n = 10split evenly
S4Wrzalik5Baron4n = 9Wrzalik took 5 of 9
S5Wrzalik0Baron3n = 3Baron took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricWrzalikBaronW − BBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match38.939.1−0.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWrzalikBaronBasisWin rate · lifetime295 / 664 vs 874 / 180344.4%48.5%295 / 664 vs 874 / 1803Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.739.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BaronWrzalik 2.00/Baron 1.71
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Baron · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Baron won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 28 · 07:55T. Wrzalik—11781152M. Baron—811119113
LJun 19 · 13:05T. Wrzalik—1061181M. Baron—12118113
WJun 19 · 06:55T. Wrzalik—11117133M. Baron—5911111
LMay 15 · 11:55T. Wrzalik—7111081M. Baron—11712113
LMay 15 · 05:55T. Wrzalik—101111762M. Baron—125811113
WApr 28 · 21:35T. Wrzalik—21311113M. Baron—1111481
WApr 15 · 24:45T. Wrzalik—71111113M. Baron—117331
WApr 14 · 18:45T. Wrzalik—121111113M. Baron—147661
LApr 10 · 15:30T. Wrzalik—111171132M. Baron—871113113
LApr 10 · 09:30T. Wrzalik—81060M. Baron—1112113
T. Wrzalik10
LAug 28 · 16:20T. Wrzalik2.6512119652G. Wichowski1.401071111113WAug 28 · 15:05T. Wrzalik2.95681111113K. Slawinski1.3511119892LAug 28 · 12:45O. Vincenec1.807111111113T. Wrzalik1.8511813592LAug 28 · 11:55T. Wrzalik1.9571390P. Adamus1.741115113LAug 28 · 10:20T. Wrzalik1.95119111272O. Vincenec1.75711614113WAug 28 · 09:05T. Wrzalik2.65117117113K. Slawinski1.4061171162LAug 28 · 07:55T. Wrzalik1.8611781152M. Baron1.81811119113LAug 28 · 06:45G. Wichowski1.351011119113T. Wrzalik2.9012581132LAug 28 · 05:55T. Wrzalik2.0559100P. Adamus1.661111123LAug 26 · 02:00T. Wrzalik1.8551160G. Marud1.851113113
M. Baron10
LSep 7 · 04:20M. Baron2.909580L. Oracz1.351111113LSep 7 · 03:05M. Baron1.785990G. Marud1.931111113WSep 7 · 01:55M. Baron1.9011813113P. Kurek1.755111151LSep 7 · 24:45O. Jadach1.927111111113M. Baron1.8011913652WSep 6 · 23:55M. Baron1.80111111113M. Sikon1.90134761LSep 6 · 22:20M. Baron2.50118891O. Jadach1.4441111113WSep 6 · 21:05M. Baron1.8551211113G. Marud1.851110541LSep 6 · 19:55M. Baron2.124680P. Kurek1.621111113WSep 6 · 18:45L. Oracz1.4712125882M. Baron2.4510101111113WAug 28 · 07:55T. Wrzalik1.8611781152M. Baron1.81811119113
Upcoming Matches
T. Wrzalik
Nothing scheduled
M. Baron1 of 1 neutral
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