TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13034224
Played Aug 28Finished
Tomasz Wrzalik
Home
1.86
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
118711811119511
Mariusz Baron
Away
1.81
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:42 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMariusz Baron to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
92 points played in total.
Set by set
118711811119511
H2H Tomasz Wrzalik 14–18 Mariusz Baron Tomasz Wrzalik has won 14 of their 32 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 06:42What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.81 (51%)
Baron
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-18 in 32
Baron
Correct
gap of 4 in 32, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Wrzalik 1297 vs Baron 1333
Baron
Correct
both rated, 36 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Wrzalik 20% vs Baron 60%
Baron
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Wrzalik 40% vs Baron 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Wrzalik -4 · Baron +2
Wrzalik
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Baron)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Wrzalik form (20%) is below what odds imply (54%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWrzalik 1.86 / Baron 1.81
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Baron)+3.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13034224
Wrzalik1.86
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog36% won 73 of 205
Down 0–1, comes back18% 20 of 114
Down 0–2, comes back7% 4 of 54
Baron1.81
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite57% won 223 of 391
Up 2–0, closes it83% 110 of 132
Up 1–0, closes it71% 164 of 231
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeWrzalik4wins
AwayBaron6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderBaron leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWrzalik33.3%1 of 3
AwayBaron57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Wrzalik3Baron7n = 10Baron took 7 of 10
S2Wrzalik8Baron2n = 10Wrzalik took 8 of 10
S3Wrzalik5Baron5n = 10split evenly
S4Wrzalik5Baron5n = 10split evenly
S5Wrzalik0Baron3n = 3Baron took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricWrzalikBaronW − BBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match40.640.7−0.1per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWrzalikBaronBasisWin rate · lifetime295 / 665 vs 875 / 180444.4%48.5%295 / 665 vs 875 / 1804Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.739.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BaronWrzalik 1.86/Baron 1.81
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Baron · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Baron won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 28 · 13:55T. Wrzalik—1612671M. Baron—181011113
LAug 28 · 07:55T. Wrzalik—11781152M. Baron—811119113
LJun 19 · 13:05T. Wrzalik—1061181M. Baron—12118113
WJun 19 · 06:55T. Wrzalik—11117133M. Baron—5911111
LMay 15 · 11:55T. Wrzalik—7111081M. Baron—11712113
LMay 15 · 05:55T. Wrzalik—101111762M. Baron—125811113
WApr 28 · 21:35T. Wrzalik—21311113M. Baron—1111481
WApr 15 · 24:45T. Wrzalik—71111113M. Baron—117331
WApr 14 · 18:45T. Wrzalik—121111113M. Baron—147661
LApr 10 · 15:30T. Wrzalik—111171132M. Baron—871113113
T. Wrzalik10
LAug 28 · 16:20T. Wrzalik2.6512119652G. Wichowski1.401071111113WAug 28 · 15:05T. Wrzalik2.95681111113K. Slawinski1.3511119892LAug 28 · 13:55T. Wrzalik2.001612671M. Baron1.71181011113LAug 28 · 12:45O. Vincenec1.807111111113T. Wrzalik1.8511813592LAug 28 · 11:55T. Wrzalik1.9571390P. Adamus1.741115113LAug 28 · 10:20T. Wrzalik1.95119111272O. Vincenec1.75711614113WAug 28 · 09:05T. Wrzalik2.65117117113K. Slawinski1.4061171162LAug 28 · 06:45G. Wichowski1.351011119113T. Wrzalik2.9012581132LAug 28 · 05:55T. Wrzalik2.0559100P. Adamus1.661111123LAug 26 · 02:00T. Wrzalik1.8551160G. Marud1.851113113
M. Baron10
LSep 7 · 04:20M. Baron2.909580L. Oracz1.351111113LSep 7 · 03:05M. Baron1.785990G. Marud1.931111113WSep 7 · 01:55M. Baron1.9011813113P. Kurek1.755111151LSep 7 · 24:45O. Jadach1.927111111113M. Baron1.8011913652WSep 6 · 23:55M. Baron1.80111111113M. Sikon1.90134761LSep 6 · 22:20M. Baron2.50118891O. Jadach1.4441111113WSep 6 · 21:05M. Baron1.8551211113G. Marud1.851110541LSep 6 · 19:55M. Baron2.124680P. Kurek1.621111113WSep 6 · 18:45L. Oracz1.4712125882M. Baron2.4510101111113WAug 28 · 13:55T. Wrzalik2.001612671M. Baron1.71181011113
Upcoming Matches
T. Wrzalik
Nothing scheduled
M. Baron1 of 1 neutral
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