TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13023856
Played Aug 27Finished
Maksym Karelov
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1161012911117811
Iurii Chernyshov
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 7Form at publish
0–7Last 7Lost last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:42 and never touched — 60.8% is still 60.8%
Graded at full timeMaksym Karelov to win
60.8%
60.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMaksym Karelov above · Iurii Chernyshov below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 96 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Maksym Karelov at 60.8%
96 points played in total.
H2H Maksym Karelov 1–0 Iurii Chernyshov Iurii Chernyshov has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:42What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Karelov
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Karelov 1158 vs Chernyshov 886
Karelov
Wrong
both rated, 272 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Karelov 40% vs Chernyshov 0%
Karelov
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Karelov 30% vs Chernyshov 0%
Karelov
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Karelov -3 · Chernyshov -5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Karelov) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chernyshov form (0%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKarelov 1.44 / Chernyshov 2.63
Signal prob.65% / 36%
Edge (Karelov)-0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13023856
Karelov1.44
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite42% won 14 of 33
Up 2–0, closes it92% 11 of 12
Up 1–0, closes it67% 12 of 18
Chernyshov2.63
0%won 0 of 7 · last 10
Lost last 7
oldest → newest43%takes the first set · 3 of 7
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeKarelov1wins
AwayChernyshov0wins
Karelov leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricKarelovChernyshovK − CBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match38.031.0+7.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKarelovChernyshovBasisWin rate · lifetime31 / 81 vs 0 / 738.3%0%31 / 81 vs 0 / 7Avg sets wonper match1.80.6per matchAvg pointsper match37.231.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KarelovKarelov 1.44/Chernyshov 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.5%
Karelov · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Chernyshov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WAug 19 · 16:05M. Karelov—1111163I. Chernyshov—98140
M. Karelov10
LSep 9 · 14:05V. Leonov1.36751311113M. Karelov3.00111111832WSep 9 · 13:05A. Sydorenko1.22115371M. Karelov4.0061111113LSep 2 · 19:35M. Karelov4.0048141122A. Sydorenko1.221111129113LSep 2 · 17:35V. Leonov1.40771111113M. Karelov2.7511119562LSep 2 · 15:35H. Buianover1.731131111113M. Karelov2.0011151392LSep 2 · 14:35M. Karelov2.6371040V. Lukianevych1.441112113WSep 2 · 13:35V. Reva1.44811821M. Karelov2.6311711113LSep 1 · 18:35V. Lukianevych1.5051911113M. Karelov2.501117581WSep 1 · 17:35M. Karelov3.251111113V. Reva1.337560LSep 1 · 16:35M. Karelov3.5011740A. Sydorenko1.281311113
I. Chernyshov10
LSep 1 · 19:05I. Chernyshov3.75115761A. Sydorenko1.2571111113LSep 1 · 17:05V. Lukianevych1.301111123I. Chernyshov3.4077100LSep 1 · 16:05I. Chernyshov2.632770H. Buianover1.441111113WSep 1 · 15:05M. Karelov1.611210116132I. Chernyshov2.201012411153LSep 1 · 13:35I. Chernyshov4.50115531V. Reva1.1741111113LAug 27 · 19:05H. Buianover1.73101111113I. Chernyshov2.00126771LAug 27 · 16:35V. Lukianevych1.611711123I. Chernyshov2.20158100LAug 27 · 14:35V. Reva1.501111113I. Chernyshov2.505880LAug 27 · 12:35A. Sydorenko1.3691111143I. Chernyshov3.001197121LAug 19 · 19:05I. Chernyshov3.008240V. Leonov1.361111113
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