TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13023197
Played Aug 26Finished
Erik Mares
Home
2.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
118611511511––
Lukas Boruvka
Away
1.40
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:04 and never touched — 63.4% is still 63.4%
Graded at full timeErik Mares to win
63.4%
63.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingErik Mares above · Lukas Boruvka below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 68 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Erik Mares at 63.4%
68 points played in total.
H2H Erik Mares 10–3 Lukas Boruvka Lukas Boruvka has won 3 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:04What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Boruvka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-3 in 13
Mares
Wrong
gap of 7 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mares 1897 vs Boruvka 2109
Boruvka
Correct
both rated, 212 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mares 60% vs Boruvka 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mares 50% vs Boruvka 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mares +1 · Boruvka +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Boruvka) · live re-read · sealed at 37% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Boruvka form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMares 2.75 / Boruvka 1.40
Signal prob.33% / 67%
Edge (Boruvka)+0.3pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13023197
Mares2.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog45% won 92 of 203
Down 0–1, comes back27% 28 of 104
Down 0–2, comes back13% 8 of 60
Boruvka1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite84% won 53 of 63
Up 2–0, closes it95% 35 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it92% 43 of 47
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMares7wins
AwayBoruvka3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderMares leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMares85.7%6 of 7
AwayBoruvka66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mares7Boruvka3n = 10Mares took 7 of 10
S2Mares6Boruvka4n = 10Mares took 6 of 10
S3Mares6Boruvka4n = 10Mares took 6 of 10
S4Mares2Boruvka3n = 5Boruvka took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMaresBoruvkaM − BBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match37.032.4+4.6per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaresBoruvkaBasisWin rate · lifetime590 / 1166 vs 112 / 16150.6%69.6%590 / 1166 vs 112 / 161Avg sets wonper match2.12.5per matchAvg pointsper match39.939.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BoruvkaMares 2.75/Boruvka 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.6%
Boruvka · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Boruvka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 26 · 21:30E. Mares—116551L. Boruvka—81111113
WAug 26 · 18:00E. Mares—1111113L. Boruvka—6680
WAug 2 · 17:30E. Mares—1011611113L. Boruvka—12611452
WAug 2 · 15:30E. Mares—1111711113L. Boruvka—29111372
LJun 6 · 06:00E. Mares—5911101L. Boruvka—11117123
LJan 16 · 21:00E. Mares—7960L. Boruvka—111173
WOct 20 · 20:00E. Mares—1116113L. Boruvka—31460
WSep 8 · 20:00E. Mares—1212113L. Boruvka—101090
WAug 18 · 21:30E. Mares—1611113L. Boruvka—14970
WAug 18 · 19:30E. Mares—11911113L. Boruvka—611861
E. Mares10
LSep 6 · 09:00E. Mares1.579111111102O. Kolisnyk2.25111369123WSep 6 · 08:00E. Mares1.83114116113J. Vales1.8351151152WSep 6 · 07:30O. Kolisnyk2.5089111172E. Mares1.50111169113LSep 6 · 06:00E. Mares1.83911117102T. Postelt1.83113911123LSep 5 · 13:00E. Mares1.731111771J. Zajicek2.0061311113LSep 5 · 12:00E. Mares1.83119113132J. Vales1.83611511153WSep 5 · 11:30J. Zajicek1.73911681E. Mares2.0011711113LSep 5 · 10:00E. Mares2.259620J. Medek1.571111113LSep 4 · 21:30E. Mares2.00311111052J. Medek1.73119912113WSep 4 · 20:00E. Mares1.8011813113J. Vales1.912111171
L. Boruvka10
LAug 29 · 13:30J. Cernik2.33911911113L. Boruvka1.5411511792LAug 29 · 12:30J. Cernik2.7512117113L. Boruvka1.401041161WAug 29 · 11:30L. Boruvka1.1711111110113J. Zajicek4.5073131272WAug 29 · 10:30M. Kratochvil3.408680L. Boruvka1.301111113WAug 29 · 09:30L. Boruvka1.171111113J. Zajicek4.508790WAug 29 · 08:00L. Boruvka1.4061111113J. Cernik2.75119941LAug 29 · 07:30J. Zajicek5.001381011113L. Boruvka1.14111112582WAug 29 · 06:00L. Boruvka1.3011811113M. Kratochvil3.40911961WAug 26 · 20:00L. Boruvka1.281111143J. Medek3.5052120WAug 26 · 19:30J. Zajicek4.50117581L. Boruvka1.1771111113
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