TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13003786
Played Aug 25Finished
Adrian Spychala
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
115711115811115
Michal Malachowski
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:44 and never touched — 58.5% is still 58.5%
Graded at full timeMichal Malachowski to win
58.5%
58.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAdrian Spychala above · Michal Malachowski below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 85 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Michal Malachowski at 58.5%
85 points played in total.
H2H Adrian Spychala 17–28 Michal Malachowski Adrian Spychala has won 17 of their 45 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:44What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Malachowski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-28 in 45
Malachowski
Wrong
gap of 11 in 45, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Spychala 1711 vs Malachowski 1670
Spychala
Correct
both rated, 41 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Spychala 60% vs Malachowski 20%
Spychala
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Spychala 40% vs Malachowski 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Spychala -1 · Malachowski -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Spychala) · live re-read · sealed at 42% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Malachowski form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSpychala 2.00 / Malachowski 1.73
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Spychala)+7.7pp
TT Elite Series · #13003786
Spychala2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog29% won 132 of 460
Down 0–1, comes back13% 40 of 301
Down 0–2, comes back2% 4 of 175
Malachowski1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 110 of 198
Up 2–0, closes it96% 51 of 53
Up 1–0, closes it73% 82 of 113
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSpychala4wins
AwayMalachowski6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMalachowski leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSpychala75%3 of 4
AwayMalachowski83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Spychala4Malachowski6n = 10Malachowski took 6 of 10
S2Spychala4Malachowski6n = 10Malachowski took 6 of 10
S3Spychala7Malachowski3n = 10Spychala took 7 of 10
S4Spychala4Malachowski4n = 8split evenly
S5Spychala1Malachowski3n = 4Malachowski took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSpychalaMalachowskiS − MBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.539.6+0.9per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSpychalaMalachowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime591 / 1585 vs 443 / 85637.3%51.8%591 / 1585 vs 443 / 856Avg sets wonper match1.62.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.337.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SpychalaSpychala 2.00/Malachowski 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Spychala · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Spychala won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJan 30 · 06:15A. Spychala4111811113M. Malachowski35811881
WJan 28 · 10:30A. Spychala4311911123M. Malachowski317113101
LJan 28 · 05:15A. Spychala3631211101M. Malachowski4611149123
LJan 21 · 11:40A. Spychala379711101M. Malachowski4311119123
WJan 21 · 08:35A. Spychala511011118113M. Malachowski3812841132
LJan 9 · 16:10A. Spychala5610111211122M. Malachowski51124147143
LJan 9 · 08:25A. Spychala2688100M. Malachowski341111123
LDec 18 · 14:10A. Spychala3761161132M. Malachowski46118115113
WDec 18 · 06:00A. Spychala331111113M. Malachowski229760
LDec 17 · 15:00A. Spychala45124118102M. Malachowski501011611123
A. Spychala10
WSep 2 · 19:40A. Spychala1.801211113J. Witkowski1.9110790WSep 2 · 18:30A. Spychala1.73119411113M. Olbrycht2.0031111772LSep 2 · 17:20A. Spychala1.83117781K. Kapik1.8371111113WSep 2 · 16:05L. Pietraszko2.63101111652A. Spychala1.44129911113WSep 2 · 15:25A. Spychala1.91411145113J. Chmielowski1.80117121182WSep 2 · 14:35A. Spychala1.7011118113J. Witkowski1.95771171LSep 2 · 13:00A. Spychala1.80116612102M. Kolek1.858111110123WSep 2 · 11:45A. Spychala1.8371111113K. Wisniewski1.86118761LSep 2 · 10:05A. Spychala2.95481591J. Kuzmicz1.33111113113WSep 2 · 09:00A. Spychala2.25101111153D. Prokopcov1.551289131
M. Malachowski10
LSep 14 · 04:25M. Malachowski1.951110117122J. Kuzmicz1.70712811143WSep 14 · 03:40L. Jarocki1.839121271M. Malachowski1.87111410113LAug 26 · 24:10M. Malachowski1.80991341K. Kapik1.91111111113WAug 25 · 23:20M. Malachowski1.611111113D. Jadam2.208780LAug 25 · 21:50M. Malachowski2.204920M. Rutkowski1.611111113WAug 25 · 21:25M. Malachowski1.401111113M. Kolek2.755690LAug 25 · 20:30D. Jadam2.20111111113M. Malachowski1.61891381WAug 25 · 19:15M. Malachowski2.00123118113K. Glazowski1.73101151192WAug 25 · 18:05M. Sklensky1.448780M. Malachowski2.631111113LAug 25 · 15:25K. Strowski1.5011147123M. Malachowski2.5091211101
Upcoming Matches
A. Spychala
Nothing scheduled
M. Malachowski
Sep 14 · 06:00M. Malachowski2.06K. Glazowski1.60—Sep 14 · 06:50M. Malachowski1.55K. Wisniewski2.15—Sep 14 · 07:40M. Malachowski1.25A. Sobel3.30—Sep 14 · 09:20M. Malachowski1.66K. Kapik2.00—Sep 14 · 10:55M. Malachowski1.81M. Rutkowski1.82—Sep 14 · 12:10M. Malachowski2.04K. Glazowski1.64—Sep 14 · 13:25M. Malachowski1.77G. Poliniewicz1.87—Sep 14 · 14:35M. Malachowski1.96L. Jarocki1.69—
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