TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13004454
Played Aug 25Finished
Michal Malachowski
Home
1.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
115116119––––
Maciej Kolek
Away
2.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:10 and never touched — 66.2% is still 66.2%
Graded at full timeMichal Malachowski to win
66.2%
66.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Malachowski above · Maciej Kolek below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 53 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Michal Malachowski at 66.2%
53 points played in total.
H2H Michal Malachowski 10–3 Maciej Kolek Maciej Kolek has won 3 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:10What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Malachowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-3 in 13
Malachowski
Correct
gap of 7 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Malachowski 1689 vs Kolek 1593
Malachowski
Correct
both rated, 96 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Malachowski 40% vs Kolek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Malachowski 40% vs Kolek 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Malachowski -1 · Kolek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Malachowski) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Malachowski form (40%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMalachowski 1.40 / Kolek 2.75
Signal prob.71% / 29%
Edge (Malachowski)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13004454
Malachowski1.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 110 of 198
Up 2–0, closes it96% 51 of 53
Up 1–0, closes it73% 82 of 113
Kolek2.75
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 179 of 471
Down 0–1, comes back20% 54 of 276
Down 0–2, comes back2% 3 of 133
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMalachowski7wins
AwayKolek3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMalachowski leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMalachowski83.3%5 of 6
AwayKolek50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Malachowski6Kolek4n = 10Malachowski took 6 of 10
S2Malachowski7Kolek3n = 10Malachowski took 7 of 10
S3Malachowski6Kolek4n = 10Malachowski took 6 of 10
S4Malachowski4Kolek3n = 7Malachowski took 4 of 7
S5Malachowski2Kolek1n = 3Malachowski took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMalachowskiKolekM − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.336.1+5.2per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMalachowskiKolekBasisWin rate · lifetime445 / 859 vs 651 / 131251.8%49.6%445 / 859 vs 651 / 1312Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.638.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MalachowskiMalachowski 1.40/Kolek 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.7%
Malachowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Malachowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 4 · 22:30M. Malachowski5612111111113M. Kolek5214881392
LJul 4 · 20:30M. Malachowski31611861M. Kolek4111811113
WJul 4 · 01:10M. Malachowski4211911113M. Kolek33511891
LJul 3 · 22:50M. Malachowski48117713102M. Kolek516111111123
WMay 4 · 23:50M. Malachowski46511811113M. Kolek3611611442
WMay 4 · 21:30M. Malachowski351311113M. Kolek2511590
WApr 30 · 16:40M. Malachowski381116113M. Kolek2881460
WApr 24 · 23:45M. Malachowski43111011113M. Kolek33912751
WApr 24 · 21:20M. Malachowski341211113M. Kolek2110470
LApr 24 · 15:00M. Malachowski401311791M. Kolek4115411113
M. Malachowski10
LSep 14 · 04:25M. Malachowski1.951110117122J. Kuzmicz1.70712811143WSep 14 · 03:40L. Jarocki1.839121271M. Malachowski1.87111410113LAug 26 · 24:10M. Malachowski1.80991341K. Kapik1.91111111113WAug 25 · 23:20M. Malachowski1.611111113D. Jadam2.208780LAug 25 · 21:50M. Malachowski2.204920M. Rutkowski1.611111113LAug 25 · 20:30D. Jadam2.20111111113M. Malachowski1.61891381WAug 25 · 19:15M. Malachowski2.00123118113K. Glazowski1.73101151192WAug 25 · 18:05M. Sklensky1.448780M. Malachowski2.631111113LAug 25 · 16:55A. Spychala2.00117118113M. Malachowski1.7351151152LAug 25 · 15:25K. Strowski1.5011147123M. Malachowski2.5091211101
M. Kolek10
LSep 13 · 19:40M. Kolek2.20611611102K. Staszczyk1.61115114123WSep 13 · 18:30M. Kolek1.911111113L. Pietraszko1.809280WSep 13 · 17:20M. Kolek1.501011118153G. Kesik2.50124211132LSep 13 · 16:05F. Mlynarski1.4451111113M. Kolek2.63118411WSep 13 · 15:25M. Kolek2.2511914113D. Jadam1.574111291WSep 13 · 14:35T. Piotrowski3.055580M. Kolek1.291111113WSep 13 · 13:25M. Kolek1.241191313133M. Piecowski3.404111115112LSep 13 · 12:10D. Solilo1.8511118113M. Kolek1.85371181WSep 13 · 10:55G. Kesik2.65631121M. Kolek1.4011118113LSep 13 · 09:20P. Maruszak2.80119511113M. Kolek1.3481111982
Upcoming Matches
M. Malachowski
Sep 14 · 06:00M. Malachowski2.06K. Glazowski1.60—Sep 14 · 06:50M. Malachowski1.55K. Wisniewski2.15—Sep 14 · 07:40M. Malachowski1.25A. Sobel3.30—Sep 14 · 09:20M. Malachowski1.66K. Kapik2.00—Sep 14 · 10:55M. Malachowski1.81M. Rutkowski1.82—Sep 14 · 12:10M. Malachowski2.04K. Glazowski1.64—Sep 14 · 13:25M. Malachowski1.77G. Poliniewicz1.87—Sep 14 · 14:35M. Malachowski1.96L. Jarocki1.69—
M. Kolek
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