TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13004449
Played Aug 26Finished
Michal Malachowski
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
9119111311411––
Krzysztof Kapik
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:09 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Malachowski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichal Malachowski above · Krzysztof Kapik below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 4-11
Point 79 set 4, 4-11 — our read held Michal Malachowski at 54.0%
79 points played in total.
H2H Michal Malachowski 19–21 Krzysztof Kapik Michal Malachowski has won 19 of their 40 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:09What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Malachowski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-21 in 40
Kapik
Correct
gap of 2 in 40, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Malachowski 1703 vs Kapik 1685
Malachowski
Wrong
both rated, 18 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Malachowski 60% vs Kapik 80%
Kapik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Malachowski 50% vs Kapik 70%
Kapik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Malachowski +1 · Kapik +3
Kapik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Malachowski)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kapik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMalachowski 1.80 / Kapik 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Malachowski)+2.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13004449
Malachowski1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite56% won 110 of 198
Up 2–0, closes it96% 51 of 53
Up 1–0, closes it73% 82 of 113
Kapik1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog48% won 215 of 450
Down 0–1, comes back27% 64 of 235
Down 0–2, comes back6% 6 of 97
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMalachowski6wins
AwayKapik4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMalachowski leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMalachowski80%4 of 5
AwayKapik60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Malachowski5Kapik5n = 10split evenly
S2Malachowski3Kapik7n = 10Kapik took 7 of 10
S3Malachowski6Kapik4n = 10Malachowski took 6 of 10
S4Malachowski4Kapik3n = 7Malachowski took 4 of 7
S5Malachowski3Kapik1n = 4Malachowski took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMalachowskiKapikM − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.540.3+0.2per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMalachowskiKapikBasisWin rate · lifetime447 / 862 vs 1132 / 213051.9%53.2%447 / 862 vs 1132 / 2130Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.639.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MalachowskiMalachowski 1.80/Kapik 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Malachowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kapik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 9 · 21:25M. Malachowski581511811133K. Kapik47174114112
WAug 9 · 18:05M. Malachowski43111011113K. Kapik32512871
WJul 9 · 20:05M. Malachowski361113123K. Kapik27611100
LJul 9 · 24:45M. Malachowski4511711792K. Kapik48711811113
WJul 8 · 22:30M. Malachowski55111118153K. Kapik5191316131
WJul 8 · 20:30M. Malachowski46114119113K. Kapik3941171162
LMay 22 · 01:05M. Malachowski2245130K. Kapik371111153
LMay 21 · 22:40M. Malachowski28311861K. Kapik4111811113
LMay 21 · 20:35M. Malachowski269890K. Kapik331111113
WMay 21 · 24:15M. Malachowski46471111133K. Kapik48111187112
M. Malachowski10
LSep 14 · 04:25M. Malachowski1.951110117122J. Kuzmicz1.70712811143WSep 14 · 03:40L. Jarocki1.839121271M. Malachowski1.87111410113WAug 25 · 23:20M. Malachowski1.611111113D. Jadam2.208780LAug 25 · 21:50M. Malachowski2.204920M. Rutkowski1.611111113WAug 25 · 21:25M. Malachowski1.401111113M. Kolek2.755690LAug 25 · 20:30D. Jadam2.20111111113M. Malachowski1.61891381WAug 25 · 19:15M. Malachowski2.00123118113K. Glazowski1.73101151192WAug 25 · 18:05M. Sklensky1.448780M. Malachowski2.631111113LAug 25 · 16:55A. Spychala2.00117118113M. Malachowski1.7351151152LAug 25 · 15:25K. Strowski1.5011147123M. Malachowski2.5091211101
K. Kapik10
WSep 11 · 24:35K. Kapik1.8311116113J. Mitas1.83891171LSep 10 · 23:45M. Kolek2.381111113K. Kapik1.537570WSep 10 · 22:35K. Kapik2.1011139113M. Olbrycht1.678111191LSep 10 · 21:50J. Chmielowski1.801211113K. Kapik1.9110760LSep 10 · 19:40K. Kolodziej1.731111113K. Kapik2.003960WSep 10 · 18:50M. Olbrycht1.83712111552K. Kapik1.831114713113LSep 10 · 18:05K. Kapik1.8311411312J. Chmielowski1.83811711113WSep 10 · 16:30K. Kapik1.671111113K. Staszczyk2.107820LSep 10 · 15:45J. Mitas1.8311711113K. Kapik1.83911451LSep 9 · 23:20M. Rutkowski2.001113118113K. Kapik1.7391571142
Upcoming Matches
M. Malachowski
Sep 14 · 06:00M. Malachowski2.06K. Glazowski1.60—Sep 14 · 06:50M. Malachowski1.55K. Wisniewski2.15—Sep 14 · 07:40M. Malachowski1.25A. Sobel3.30—Sep 14 · 09:20M. Malachowski1.66K. Kapik2.00—Sep 14 · 10:55M. Malachowski1.81M. Rutkowski1.82—Sep 14 · 12:10M. Malachowski2.04K. Glazowski1.64—Sep 14 · 13:25M. Malachowski1.77G. Poliniewicz1.87—Sep 14 · 14:35M. Malachowski1.96L. Jarocki1.69—
K. Kapik
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