TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12469587
Played Aug 22Finished
Radim Adam
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
91110121141181513
Martin Jaksa
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:35 and never touched — 57.1% is still 57.1%
Graded at full timeRadim Adam to win
57.1%
57.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRadim Adam above · Martin Jaksa below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 13-12
Point 101 set 5, 13-12 — our read held Radim Adam at 57.1%
101 points drawn · the score is 3 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Radim Adam 3–0 Martin Jaksa Martin Jaksa has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:35What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Adam
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-0 in 3
Adam
Correct
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Adam 1522 vs Jaksa 1418
Adam
Correct
both rated, 103 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Adam 40% vs Jaksa 20%
Adam
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Adam 30% vs Jaksa 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Adam -2 · Jaksa +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Adam) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jaksa form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAdam 1.61 / Jaksa 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Adam)+0.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12469587
Adam1.61
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite53% won 52 of 99
Up 2–0, closes it86% 25 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it77% 39 of 51
Jaksa2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog29% won 4 of 14
Down 0–1, comes back18% 2 of 11
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 5
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeAdam3wins
AwayJaksa0wins
1 of 3 to a deciderAdam leads 3–0, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Adam2Jaksa1n = 3Adam took 2 of 3
S2Adam2Jaksa1n = 3Adam took 2 of 3
S3Adam2Jaksa1n = 3Adam took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricAdamJaksaA − JBasisWins30+3in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match45.037.3+7.7per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAdamJaksaBasisWin rate · lifetime186 / 367 vs 29 / 7050.7%41.4%186 / 367 vs 29 / 70Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.637.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AdamAdam 1.61/Jaksa 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.7%
Adam · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Adam won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WAug 22 · 17:14R. Adam—1112113M. Jaksa—91070
WAug 22 · 16:00R. Adam—9101111153M. Jaksa—111248132
WJan 17 · 07:00R. Adam—11119143M. Jaksa—9611121
R. Adam10
WSep 6 · 17:30M. Blejchar1.73118811122R. Adam2.00711115143LSep 6 · 16:00R. Adam1.8310111051M. Blejchar1.8312912113WSep 6 · 15:30V. Bosak3.5051080R. Adam1.281112113WSep 6 · 14:00R. Adam1.571117113P. Hanel2.2581580WSep 2 · 13:30P. Osvald1.5071211952R. Adam2.451110511113LSep 2 · 12:00R. Adam2.507116101P. Osvald1.5011411123WSep 2 · 11:30M. Koral1.5081080R. Adam2.501112113WSep 2 · 10:00R. Adam1.251012112113V. Bosak3.75121071192LAug 29 · 21:30R. Adam1.41711961P. Hanel2.5011311113WAug 29 · 20:00I. Taichman2.101171091R. Adam1.6781112113
M. Jaksa10
LAug 29 · 17:30M. Blejchar1.73101111113M. Jaksa2.00128871WAug 29 · 16:30M. Jaksa1.671111113P. Varecha2.109770LAug 29 · 15:00M. Jaksa2.0011611452M. Blejchar1.73811511113WAug 29 · 14:00V. Bosak2.00115991M. Jaksa1.7351111113LAug 22 · 17:14M. Jaksa2.2591070R. Adam1.571112113WAug 22 · 15:00V. Cerny1.9111890M. Jaksa1.801311113LAug 22 · 14:30M. Jaksa1.838111111102M. Blejchar1.83119713123LAug 15 · 09:10J. Hrabec1.801111511113M. Jaksa1.9113411492LAug 15 · 08:30V. Bosak2.50115313113M. Jaksa1.50911111192LAug 15 · 07:30M. Jaksa1.9187111172J. Hrabec1.80111147113
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